mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 hmmm, what's that I see on the 6-day GEM http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The entire run is absurd. not in light of this, which has been trending colder too http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif and that map is is degrees Kelvin, so it's pretty darn cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This might be the time to drop the no blocking image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z euro ensemble mslp track looked a lot like the 0z gfs op. Unfortunately this one is another small margin of error event. Fingers crossed. Trust in the blocking. It's real this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The last 3 GEM runs. It could be trending to something that looks like the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 EURO @ 51 hours looks pretty similar to the 00z GFS at same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Based on what I'm seeing so far I don't think it will end up as amped as the GFS, but probably better than 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At 78, a 1040+ H is coming into nothern Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro holding a lot of energy back in the SW..seems to do that all the time, though. Hopefully it'll correct in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's better than 12z I guess....It never phases and gets kind of smushed....actually does show a surface reflection but too far south...we still get 2-3"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's better than 12z I guess....It never phases and gets kind of smushed....actually does show a surface reflection but too far south...we still get 2-3"..... Seems like an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Seems like an outlier It tries to turn the corner but can't.....low ambles off Hatteras and it is wide right for 40N....fortunately...we get the overrunning.....still probably 0.25" QPF....it isn't a dud....just not the bomb we are hoping for..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Seems like a rather long event despite being light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It can always change for the better, no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It tries to turn the corner but can't.....low ambles off Hatteras and it is wide right for 40N....fortunately...we get the overrunning.....still probably 0.25" QPF....it isn't a dud....just not the bomb we are hoping for.....it's totally unacceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It tries to turn the corner but can't.....low ambles off Hatteras and it is wide right for 40N....fortunately...we get the overrunning.....still probably 0.25" QPF....it isn't a dud....just not the bomb we are hoping for..... You get almost .40. Probably .35 or so. Widespread 2-4" event and really close to being better. 0z has been kind to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Overall a very good set of model runs for 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You get almost .40. Probably .35 or so. Widespread 2-4" event and really close to being better. 0z has been kind to us. Within 24 hours of model runs this has become an extremely cold event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 what is the euro showing for central Virginia on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Overall a very good set of model runs for 0z. Possibly one of the best sets of runs all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Within 24 hours of model runs this has become an extremely cold event. No doubt. Its a cold snow event that could be high ratio. Dc would get 4+. There's a .50 stripe just south. This isn't just a ns moisture starved clipper either. I love where we sit right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 No doubt. Its a cold snow event that could be high ratio. Dc would get 4+. There's a .50 stripe just south. This isn't just a ns moisture starved clipper either. I love where we sit right now. Does any energy eject from Baja low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You get almost .40. Probably .35 or so. Widespread 2-4" event and really close to being better. 0z has been kind to us. yes....It is definitely not a dud...it's just not there yet......We don't even really have goalposts yet.....hopefully those will come in the next 48 hours.....I think a full blown lakes cutter is unlikely...otherwise I think an array of options are on the table....We have a much bigger margin of error in terms of pattern/climo than we have had, to get a 2-4"+ event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Does any energy eject from Baja low? very little....not nearly as much as the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Models have gotten together and asked one Maine question, what would six feet of snow and a -40 high say about warm advection? Just a wild guess, warm advection would just give up and go home. So you get a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 No doubt. Its a cold snow event that could be high ratio. Dc would get 4+. There's a .50 stripe just south. This isn't just a ns moisture starved clipper either. I love where we sit right now. I'm surprised and pleased by the QPF....I'm not seeing those amounts on either of my maps, but WB is higher res.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 yes....It is definitely not a dud...it's just not there yet......We don't even really have goalposts yet.....hopefully those will come in the next 48 hours.....I think a full blown lakes cutter is unlikely...otherwise I think an array of options are on the table....We have a much bigger margin of error in terms of pattern/climo than we have had, to get a 2-4"+ event.... Looking at 96-102 it has that overunning feel. 2-4/3-5 without freeking out over development and track. Just a slug moving over top with cold air in place. I'm kinda feelin it. We haven't seen it for years but this could be one of those events we just watch radar and wait for the goods. No mountain larceny or ptype issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 very little....not nearly as much as the GFS...maybe the bias is playing a part in less robust solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looking at 96-102 it has that overunning feel. 2-4/3-5 without freeking out over development and track. Just a slug moving over top with cold air in place. I'm kinda feelin it. We haven't seen it for years but this could be one of those events we just watch radar and wait for the goods. No mountain larceny or ptype issues. I've been feeling it too..I think most of us are....sometimes it actually does snow here and this is going to be one of those times.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Dca is .35 over 30 hours. Not good for rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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