snownut Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 They've been having some boring times overall even so. that western ridge is a pain in the arse. 2 nice storms here with cold week to follow. other than that it has been yes very boring and very warm out west with near record low snow packs. Still not missing the stream of tease you guys are having. Lived there for 47 years with so many disappointments.. makes the years with HEC's all the more memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Time for a trip to Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Are the north forums gloating? I call unsportsmanlike conduct for this superbowl storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 nice hit for the Poconos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Don't worry, reverse karma comes with the MA HECS on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyspe Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I don't think anyone up north is gloating, unless they are in Canada. This snow game is a tough one for us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 nice hit for the Poconos Have you written this one off completely or giving it one more day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I would say this is done and dusted. Models are very consistent. Most consistent of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Have you written this one off completely or giving it one more day? the former... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I will check back in tomorrow and give it one last go before closing the file cabinet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 the former... This one was especially disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Euro snow map is particularly nauseating. Draw a line at 40 N from the Atlantic to the Midwest. Virtually everywhere north of that line shows 6+ inches of snow. Breadcrumbs in northern MD. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Euro snow map is particularly nauseating. Draw a line at 40 N from the Atlantic to the Midwest. Virtually everywhere north of that line shows 6+ inches of snow. Breadcrumbs in northern MD. MDstorm Ehh, tons and tons of sleet and freezing rain in spots after an initial few inches of snow Philly and north. Changes to rain on the immediate coast and heat islands instead of the freezing rain. I-90 from Buffalo to Boston and south 50 miles or so from there get the real snow. Par for the course in these SWFE systems. The last week has been Boston's wheelhouse and it looks to continue. And from experience, once that train leaves, it doesn't stop until Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I will check back in tomorrow and give it one last go before closing the file cabinet. You guys took the early March storms that were supposed to hit NYC and the I-80 corridor last year, so I guess consider this some kind of payback? Nothing worse than suppression, at least you get something when the storm hits you, even if it's rain. The confluence looks very transient and on the move, so it's no surprise this is trending north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You guys took the early March storms that were supposed to hit NYC and the I-80 corridor last year, so I guess consider this some kind of payback? Nothing worse than suppression, at least you get something when the storm hits you, even if it's rain. The confluence looks very transient and on the move, so it's no surprise this is trending north. Payback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ehh, tons and tons of sleet and freezing rain in spots after an initial few inches of snow Philly and north. Changes to rain on the immediate coast and heat islands instead of the freezing rain. I-90 from Buffalo to Boston and south 50 miles or so from there get the real snow. Par for the course in these SWFE systems. The last week has been Boston's wheelhouse and it looks to continue. And from experience, once that train leaves, it doesn't stop until Easter. ouch. I get 2 and a half inches for the season then, worst winter on record, never finished a winter under 4 inches. At this rate BOS will get 300 inches by late May, maybe 400 inches of snow. They'll beat out Jay Peak lmao, they will end up 1000 percent of climo. So we will see mostly rain but with polar shots for the next month. G-d what a mess, what a wretched pattern. I wish Boston all the snow they can handle, but they are gonna have a HARD time tryin' to figure out where to put all that snow. I'll cheer on their snow, but its gonna be entertaining to read about 'em fightin' over parking spaces and tryin' to shovel snow with broken backs. Too bad they dont have The Jebman. I got my own challenges here in the Mid Atlantic, wading thru mud in my backyard every day lol. They are going to have so much snow in New England we might have to start calling that place Eastern Canada. February in northern Virginia looks to be even rainier than January was, if thats possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And I'm a real life Meteorologist lol. Look at models all day in AWIPS then come home and look at models and hang out with you guys. Been an absolute weather fanatic since I was a youngster. You have to be a nut to survive all the physics and calculus lol And..... the Diffy-Q, Laplace Transforms, Optimization Techniques, Non-linear, heat transfer, fluid dynamics and all the other junk I presume Pro Mets take. My whole goal in life since knee high to a duck was to be a Met. That went south in my sophomore year in college for a variety of reasons, so I became an engineer, either by education or curse. But I never let the interest die. Built my first weather station from a Heath Kit in the 6th grade, second one a few years later. Lived overseas in 6 different countries and always kept track with the forums back here (once the Internet because a common thing) while experiencing some of the greatest feats mother nature has to offer, from dust storms in India, torrential monsoons in Thailand, to 60+ feet of snow in Japan at Zao, to white outs in Switzerland so bad one could literally not see the tips of your skis. Tis a supernatural curse we all share that those who don't possess it can hardly contemplate. Would any of us have it any other way? Now, if we can just get a single, god forsaken simple setup that all models converge on from 5 days out and sticks with it to serve up 4+ inches of snow for the entire MA region, so everyone can restore some sense of reliable model based predictability and our own sanity.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And..... the Diffy-Q, Laplace Transforms, Optimization Techniques, Non-linear, heat transfer, fluid dynamics and all the other junk I presume Pro Mets take. My whole goal in life since knee high to a duck was to be a Met. That went south in my sophomore year in college for a variety of reasons, so I became an engineer, either by education or curse. But I never let the interest die. Built my first weather station from a Heath Kit in the 6th grade, second one a few years later. Lived overseas in 6 different countries and always kept track with the forums back here (once the Internet because a common thing) while experiencing some of the greatest feats mother nature has to offer, from dust storms in India, torrential monsoons in Thailand, to 60+ feet of snow in Japan at Zao, to white outs in Switzerland so bad one could literally not see the tips of your skis. Tis a supernatural curse we all share that those who don't possess it can hardly contemplate. Would any of us have it any other way? Now, if we can just get a single, god forsaken simple setup that all models converge on from 5 days out and sticks with it to serve up 4+ inches of snow for the entire MA region, so everyone can restore some sense of reliable model based predictability and our own sanity.... Cool story thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedlar mills Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Best post of the season RDM, bottoms up to disappointment in the MA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You guys took the early March storms that were supposed to hit NYC and the I-80 corridor last year, so I guess consider this some kind of payback? Nothing worse than suppression, at least you get something when the storm hits you, even if it's rain. The confluence looks very transient and on the move, so it's no surprise this is trending north. We don't need you coming down here telling us what payback is and why storms trend north. Most of us are well versed in the how and whys. Wtf made you saunter in here to give us a lesson on transient confluence and opine on ideas of payback? We don't need schooling from you. Run along now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Are the north forums gloating? I call unsportsmanlike conduct for this superbowl storm If anyone is gloating, it would likely be in their own sub-forum, so why would it bother you? As for me, I do go to other forums for a wider variety of opinions. You'll never see me be rude and gloat in one of them though, as it's not right. Side note...I wish this would have been one of the rare storms that would have given EVERYONE a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If anyone is gloating, it would likely be in their own sub-forum, so why would it bother you? As for me, I do go to other forums for a wider variety of opinions. You'll never see me be rude and gloat in one of them though, as it's not right. Side note...I wish this would have been one of the rare storms that would have given EVERYONE a good hit. We don't get those anymore..not since the -NAO became extinct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We don't get those anymore..not since the -NAO became extinct. I know. It's been quite awhile since we had a region-wide snow event. Over the past few years it seems that someone gets shafted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 disappointing winter so far and were into feb now, guess those forecasts for a "rocking feb" due to el nino will now be tested. Not much changes in MA winter to winter.Dont hold much stock in modeling more than 3 days out. History has a way of repeating itself. You get used to being happy with what you get. Time teaches you that. I,m 66!! Wes is about my age too.Wise man he is, have talked to him briefly, very classly, very smart, very nice gentleman!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You guys took the early March storms that were supposed to hit NYC and the I-80 corridor last year, so I guess consider this some kind of payback? Nothing worse than suppression, at least you get something when the storm hits you, even if it's rain. The confluence looks very transient and on the move, so it's no surprise this is trending north. What in the f*ck is wrong with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What in the f*ck is wrong with you? He drank the water (Austin's purification system must have been sabotaged). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well the last few pages were very helpful to read. Trolling from others, people's college stories and more complaining. Great discussion guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 To the point I made earlier, the algorithms and mathematics that these models run on doesn't change from run to run. For a united shift as we saw last night, it had to have been updated data. As to Bobs point about a clustering of ens mems being nw, there must have been one player in this storm that is so vital that just a small change ion its parameters made all the difference. We got the "change" we didn't want. I'm curious what that might have been. Was it the ns energy? Was it poorly sampled early because it was over the pacific? Just curious.The northern stream vort was a little stronger. The other features are about the same but with a shallow trough that's a little too far west the minute the models picked up on the storm developing further north and stronger it was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You guys took the early March storms that were supposed to hit NYC and the I-80 corridor last year, so I guess consider this some kind of payback? Nothing worse than suppression, at least you get something when the storm hits you, even if it's rain. The confluence looks very transient and on the move, so it's no surprise this is trending north. What would you call it for someone who lived up north last year and watched all those storms trend south, and now lives down here and watches then trend north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well the last few pages were very helpful to read. Trolling from others, people's college stories and more complaining. Great discussion guys Well said....theres 15 min of my life that i'll never get back.... It is what it is and I'm stunned that those in the mid atlantic (including myself) are surprised. As much as i want the snow, I cant wish it here, and we have no mechanics to hold the cold and never willin these areas (short of CAD situations). Based on the pattern were in, were not far away from something decent and should be happy at that, and should consider any appreciable snow a gift until things line up better. Most here should know that. The pattern is what it is, and living here all 45 years of my life (except college), It's become rather predictable as to how things play out in our region. If you dont like it....move, but stop pissin and moaning about it. Your all better than that and while I may not posses the knowledge of some here, I do have wisdom of my years, and half a sense about me. Chins up gang.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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