Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Everything is still trending stronger/northwester.. maybe the new model sweetspots is like d5............ unless it doesn't show the storm until day 3. Day 3 is not a good day for us either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 For me, this one is a case of data ingestion. Our big three, Euro, GFS, and NAM all lost this for us at exactly the same time. All three had looked good at 12z yesterday. At 0z last night they all basically said no. And they haven't wavered since. It would be neat to know what the tell tale piece of info it was that sent them down a different path. Fortunate they all said no at the same time. Pretty cut and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Fair enough Ian. My confidence was pretty high but the lead time still scared me. I kept thinking "please get inside of 72 with no sig changes...please". Ensembles never lost the nw cluster so it lurked but agree that seeing the 12z gfs/euro yesterday so close made it seem like a near lock. And here we are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Everything is still trending stronger/northwester.. maybe the new model sweetspots is like d5............ unless it doesn't show the storm until day 3. Day 3 is not a good day for us either way. This is the winter to ignore models until just before showtime. We had some good discussions. Good learning experience from you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 eh.. it was more than one model suite that showed it.. plus we knew the setup was better than it has been even if flawed. we do sometimes still collectively ignore the bad signs. it surely wasn't a lock. not the best performance of models from range.. and all early calls are in trouble it seems. so.. not a short term bust but not sure it's clear it's just another model blip we should have ignored. It was more than one model suite where some of the models showed a direct hit, but the ones before 12Z yesterday all had at least a couple of models showing the mix-line or that we were on the northern fringe or that it was going to be light snows all around. I agree with you that it wasn't just another model blip. What I don't think works for us is to be excited in a winter like this one at a 72-hr lead time. 2/13/07 was a great example of the quite extreme ups and downs we can go through from 72-hrs until verification. 12"+ snowstorm to disaster to some wintry mix changing to rain to wintry mix verifying and then ice storm warning issued to unforeseen sleet-pummeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Fair enough Ian. My confidence was pretty high but the lead time still scared me. I kept thinking "please get inside of 72 with no sig changes...please". Ensembles never lost the nw cluster so it lurked but agree that seeing the 12z gfs/euro yesterday so close made it seem like a near lock. And here we are... It was really the only 'perfect' agreement we saw from those sets of guidance.. though the signs were there for a while. I never am a huge fan of a 'great' setup that's falling into place as the storm comes together. They always seem to mess themselves up somewhere. I think partly given the blocking narrative many of us expected to see the original 'cutter' turn into what it did.. then when it did we bought it hard. Remember pointing out several times that the models could all be showing the same wrong thing but I was still excited too. The biggest problem for a snow forecaster is the joy of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 To the point I made earlier, the algorithms and mathematics that these models run on doesn't change from run to run. For a united shift as we saw last night, it had to have been updated data. As to Bobs point about a clustering of ens mems being nw, there must have been one player in this storm that is so vital that just a small change ion its parameters made all the difference. We got the "change" we didn't want. I'm curious what that might have been. Was it the ns energy? Was it poorly sampled early because it was over the pacific? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 storm on thurs/fri looks surpressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's probably just the fact that the transient block and 50/50 ended up being slightly less efficient at keeping the storm from gaining latitude. Features up north seem more likely to be the issue than out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm bound to see plenty of snow in an upcoming ski trip to Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 eh.. it was more than one model suite that showed it.. plus we knew the setup was better than it has been even if flawed. we do sometimes still collectively ignore the bad signs. it surely wasn't a lock. not the best performance of models from range.. and all early calls are in trouble it seems. so.. not a short term bust but not sure it's clear it's just another model blip we should have ignored. Exactly. The one thing I have learned is that for THIS winter outside 72 hours on the models mean absolutely dick. The midrange modeling has been atrocious. And I dont see why that wouldnt continue with the northern dominated pattern we are in. On a side note I wanna apologize for my posts tonight. The frustration of this hobby finally broke me down this year. We have 5 or 6 legitimate weeks left. But I will not care about anything any model shows outside of 72 hours. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 UKMET closes off at h5 it looks like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Exactly. The one thing I have learned is that for THIS winter outside 72 hours on the models mean absolutely dick. The midrange modeling has been atrocious. And I dont see why that wouldnt continue with the northern dominated pattern we are in. On a side note I wanna apologize for my posts tonight. The frustration of this hobby finally broke me down this year. We have 5 or 6 legitimate weeks left. But I will not care about anything any model shows outside of 72 hours. Period. It's passion and I appreciate it. Man I'm pissed off myself. This winter is just pure suck!! I'd rather have 60 degrees and rain and complain that it was a winter without cold air as opposed to these tease jobs every week and wasted cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM goes north. Very ugly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's passion and I appreciate it. Man I'm pissed off myself. This winter is just pure suck!! I'd rather have 60 degrees and rain and complain that it was a winter without cold air as opposed to these tease jobs every week and wasted cold air. A lot of the very level headed posters have been more frustrated than usual for the facts you mentioned above. Plenty cold and plenty storms. So close. Very disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Exactly. The one thing I have learned is that for THIS winter outside 72 hours on the models mean absolutely dick. The midrange modeling has been atrocious. And I dont see why that wouldnt continue with the northern dominated pattern we are in. On a side note I wanna apologize for my posts tonight. The frustration of this hobby finally broke me down this year. We have 5 or 6 legitimate weeks left. But I will not care about anything any model shows outside of 72 hours. Period. it's fine to care about what a model shows outside of 72 hours, but it's premature to assume the models are going to stop trending in either direction just because we're in the bullseye for run or two. i get interested when i see potential, but i try not to let it consume too much of my time/brainspace until we get closer to the actual event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maryland is the Boston of the Mid Atlantic. If only I could spend just ONE winter up there. If only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Fair enough Ian. My confidence was pretty high but the lead time still scared me. I kept thinking "please get inside of 72 with no sig changes...please". Ensembles never lost the nw cluster so it lurked but agree that seeing the 12z gfs/euro yesterday so close made it seem like a near lock. And here we are... You've been completely right about the short-range nature of forecasting given the lack of Atlantic blocking. Even in last season's prolific winter, we had to get within 36-hrs on several of the bigger storms to feel confident. January 2014 was not an easy month for model-watching and nailing down the snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I used the word "ignore" models prior to 72. That is not really a good word. I benefited from reading the analysis. That's why the board exists. But, yeah, you just can't buy into a solution until the very end. It's hard not to get sucked in because we only have Feb left, as some have mentioned. Frustrating for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It was more than one model suite where some of the models showed a direct hit, but the ones before 12Z yesterday all had at least a couple of models showing the mix-line or that we were on the northern fringe or that it was going to be light snows all around. I agree with you that it wasn't just another model blip. What I don't think works for us is to be excited in a winter like this one at a 72-hr lead time. 2/13/07 was a great example of the quite extreme ups and downs we can go through from 72-hrs until verification. 12"+ snowstorm to disaster to some wintry mix changing to rain to wintry mix verifying and then ice storm warning issued to unforeseen sleet-pummeling. Yes.. we were too far out to feel as giddy as we did collectively. It's contagious though. I think after chasing indices the idea of a -NAO alone turned up the expectation game even if maybe it shouldn't have. The block is still more east based than we'd really drool over plus it's transient in nature. The 50/50 feature on some of the good runs did certainly shift in the bad runs.. as soon as it flattened back out to the north the low coming at us went back to amplifying. I don't know if that's the cause though.. probably a number of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm bound to see plenty of snow in an upcoming ski trip to Colorado. They've been having some boring times overall even so. that western ridge is a pain in the arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 TWC calling this Linus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 we will shovel our 3-6 or 4-8 while you carry your umbrella lol Are you part of the Mid Atlantic forum? If not, please go back to the Philly forum. We've had more than our share of misses this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 They've been having some boring times overall even so. that western ridge is a pain in the arse. Can't win this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm waiting up for the euro. If it's still trending north I think that's pretty much it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm waiting up for the euro. If it's still trending north I think that's pretty much it.this is a sick, sick hobby.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmac Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm waiting up for the euro. If it's still trending north I think that's pretty much it. god bless ya... more faith than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 this is a sick, sick hobby.. And I'm a real life Meteorologist lol. Look at models all day in AWIPS then come home and look at models and hang out with you guys. Been an absolute weather fanatic since I was a youngster. You have to be a nut to survive all the physics and calculus lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm waiting up for the euro. If it's still trending north I think that's pretty much it. Wow. Appreciate your input here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.