WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Quick non model assessment. Precip mass struggling to make it north of KS/Neb(edit) border. It is true that the cold arctic high now in Ohio Valley will move east(edit added,but not southeast) and there is another surge of cold air dropping down thru the Territories with it's eyes on North Dakota and then moving east. I think this is the critical element as to what happens Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Anyone still interested in taking over pbp for GooFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 wet/just warm enough cold/dry exactly. this winter has been like that seemingly since late november. i'm legitimately ready for warmer weather if we're not going to get an areawide significant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS looks the same. Nothing exciting to report. I think this one is pretty much in the books until "nowcast" time. This game's in the refrigerator: the door is closed, the lights are out, the eggs are cooling, the butter's getting hard, and the Jello-O is jigglin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00z GFS trickling in -12hrs. Pattern looks identical to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just in time to crash iwm, all yours ers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If that High would just squat down a little more ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's squatting alright....taking a big dump on us and all we have is one ply. Messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's squatting alright....taking a big dump on us and all we have is one ply. Messy. What are you out to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It all makes perfect sense. We act as though something been taken away when in reality this has happened many times before and will happen plenty in the future. Most of us have been doing this long enough to understand this. The fact that this is occurring on Feb. 1st opposed to Jan 1st is what's making it sting a lot more. Sine there hasn't been to much to date knowing were in Feb. now allows panic to set in. There will probably be at least several more chances because the cold is staying for awhile so it will snow again. I suspect we will all be focused on next Thursday very soon. In the meantime this was a great opportunity for many of us to learn just what it takes for a substantial snowstorm to take place in this region and realize how fast things can go wrong. I know the playful banter is fun through all this but an awful lot can be taken from this system. Exactly. This is why I don't think this situation is a bust. The models were shifting around to different solutions-- including the Scranton low mentioned earlier tonight and weak southern sliders-- and all happened to pick up on the same combination of favorable factors that would yield a snowy solution for us in *one* model suite. That started to slip away still at a 2.5 day lead. A bust would be if we had a Winter Storm Warning for 6-10" tomorrow night and woke up Sunday morning to what we're seeing on the models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's exactly the same. The consistency of the models the last 18-24 hours is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What are you out to? 995 over Winchester at 60. Not sure much else needs to be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 16-18" for boston. Right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Exactly. This is why I don't think this situation is a bust. The models were shifting around to different solutions-- including the Scranton low mentioned earlier tonight and weak southern sliders-- and all happened to pick up on the same combination of favorable factors that would yield a snowy solution for us in *one* model suite. That started to slip away still at a 2.5 day lead. A bust would be if we had a Winter Storm Warning for 6-10" tomorrow night and woke up Sunday morning to what we're seeing on the models now. ditto, models seem to be handling this mess fairly well now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Agree Gym. A bust is when headlines are up and the news is honking. We didn't get very close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 995 over Winchester at 60. Not sure much else needs to be said. Winchester,north carolina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It all makes perfect sense. We act as though something been taken away when in reality this has happened many times before and will happen plenty in the future. Most of us have been doing this long enough to understand this. The fact that this is occurring on Feb. 1st opposed to Jan 1st is what's making it sting a lot more. Sine there hasn't been to much to date knowing were in Feb. now allows panic to set in. There will probably be at least several more chances because the cold is staying for awhile so it will snow again. I suspect we will all be focused on next Thursday very soon. In the meantime this was a great opportunity for many of us to learn just what it takes for a substantial snowstorm to take place in this region and realize how fast things can go wrong. I know the playful banter is fun through all this but an awful lot can be taken from this system. I'll tell you one thing that everybody here needs to learn...you can't just summarily dismiss the NAM because you don't like what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 995 over Winchester at 60. Not sure much else needs to be said. On phone. Not optimal. Yah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 At least Philly is now getting screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Amazing consistency of the GFS the last 5 runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'll tell you one thing that everybody here needs to learn...you can't just summarily dismiss the NAM because you don't like what it shows..+1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yes. GFS is certainly consistent. Other take away is no GFS bashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Why is the GFS so slow on WxBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Why is the GFS so slow on WxBell Same way on tropical tidbits. Frustrating when instaweather is so much faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 For me, this one is a case of data ingestion. Our big three, Euro, GFS, and NAM all lost this for us at exactly the same time. All three had looked good at 12z yesterday. At 0z last night they all basically said no. And they haven't wavered since. It would be neat to know what the tell tale piece of info it was that sent them down a different path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Exactly. This is why I don't think this situation is a bust. The models were shifting around to different solutions-- including the Scranton low mentioned earlier tonight and weak southern sliders-- and all happened to pick up on the same combination of favorable factors that would yield a snowy solution for us in *one* model suite. That started to slip away still at a 2.5 day lead. A bust would be if we had a Winter Storm Warning for 6-10" tomorrow night and woke up Sunday morning to what we're seeing on the models now. I'll show you a bust. A bust is the entire Washington Metropolitan Region is under a Winter Storm Warning for 6 to 10 inches Saturday night and on Sunday we wake up to steady moderate rain with not a trace of ice or slush. Now, THAT'S a bust Although in this case it will not be a bust because we already know that we WILL have rain on Sunday/Monday Damn! I forgot to pick up that new umbrella tonight! Still got one more chance to get it before the deluge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Talking about busts....Super Bowl halftime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Talking about busts....Super Bowl halftime. LMAO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Talking about busts....Super Bowl halftime. True dat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Agree Gym. A bust is when headlines are up and the news is honking. We didn't get very close to that. eh.. it was more than one model suite that showed it.. plus we knew the setup was better than it has been even if flawed. we do sometimes still collectively ignore the bad signs. it surely wasn't a lock. not the best performance of models from range.. and all early calls are in trouble it seems. so.. not a short term bust but not sure it's clear it's just another model blip we should have ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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