Ravens94 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM is SE with the high and also stronger 1040 this run Posted are new vs old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM is SE with the high and also stronger 1040 this run Posted are new vs old Even with the Low slightly to the north so far, the cold air is slightly stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Precip types... 18Z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015013018&time=3&var=PTYPE&hour=042 0Z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015013100&time=3&var=PTYPE&hour=036 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The problem with wanting a thump ahead if the warming is the ridging in front. As this amps more and more it's also pumping more ridging in front. The flow is all wrong. There isn't any cad to really act to cause the lift needed for precip. The ggem had a few runs with a thump snow when it was a cutter but those runs still had less ridging in front even when the slp was cutting. With the storm approaching from the west and the boundary setting up to its northwest we are not likely to get a thump anything. Wrong trajectory and wrong upper flow for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Precip shield is looking more favorable at hr 42 as the northern sweet from 18Z is more even spread out with precip coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM is SE with the high and also stronger 1040 this run Posted are new vs oldThe small changes in a high behind the storm way out in the high plains is kinda irrelevant. The eastern appendage of that high sneaking into the lakes is more important. What would cause cad and force this south is high pressure in front not behind the system. Out problem is the lack if digging from the trough and so any amplitude is bad when the storm barely bottoms out south of us. Then the ridging in front is destroying any cad. Those features aren't going to be changed by a high over Bismarck being 3mb stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 hr 45 might seal the deal after it seems to adjust back to the north just in time to rain on the parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM stays the course. No significant changes from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Mason Dixon mixes ~hr 51 eta: then rains, sorry folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is going to rain up to NYC on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The precip streaking east way ahead of the system is riding along the frontal boundary setting up where the southerly flow ahead of the vort is netting the arctic boundary resistance. It will indicate early on where the storm is heading because no way for that boundary to shift south with the flow ahead of this and the storm will ride that boundary. The runs that were good had that streak if snow over us. Any run that starts with throwing that up into pa had gone wrong for us already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The precip streaking east way ahead of the system is riding along the frontal boundary setting up where the southerly flow ahead of the vort is netting the arctic boundary resistance. It will indicate early on where the storm is heading because no way for that boundary to shift south with the flow ahead of this and the storm will ride that boundary. The runs that were good had that streak if snow over us. Any run that starts with throwing that up into pa had gone wrong for us already. Thanks for the great explanations. You add a lot to this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM is SE with the high and also stronger 1040 this run Posted are new vs old The run is god damn garbage. There is no other way to describe it. It's utter filth, excrement and garbage. It is a straight up heaping pile of dung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Miller B on the NAM now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The run is god damn garbage. There is no other way to describe it. It's utter filth, excrement and garbage. It is a straight up heaping pile of dung. we can only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is going to rain up to NYC on the NAM.You are correct. Congrats Boston.... Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 OMG, i literally just spit up my drink after reading this. This is epic. The run is god damn garbage. There is no other way to describe it. It's utter filth, excrement and garbage. It is a straight up heaping pile of dung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 hr 45 might seal the deal after it seems to adjust back to the north just in time to rain on the parade.. Because the minor insignificant detail changes people are looking at out west aren't a big deal to our weather. The 3 things that could impact us are any higher pressure over the eastern lakes, more digging from the northern stream further east or less ridging out front. The precip streaking east is a good indicator of how much ridging is pushing the boundary north. As soon as that snow steak headed north of is it was over. The details don't matter because the storm will adjust to ride that boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I have yet to see a run meaningfully stop going north since the models started hinting at it with the 18z suite yesterday. I knew it was over this morning. A closed slp in the midwest with flat or amped flow in front and no downhill confluence above us @ h5 will gain latitude every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You are correct. Congrats Boston.... Again. The NAM even found a way to screw southern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 At least it clears out and gets cold after this POS is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The run is god damn garbage. There is no other way to describe it. It's utter filth, excrement and garbage. It is a straight up heaping pile of dung. Easy, it is just weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I have yet to see a run meaningfully stop going north since the models started hinting at it with the 18z suite yesterday. I knew it was over this morning. A closed slp in the midwest with flat or amped flow in front and no downhill confluence above us @ h5 will gain latitude every time. I love your analysis. Your right it's over 24 hours into the run when slp starts to develop in central Kansas with a trough axis way to our west. That low needs to be down in LA. From there on nothing good can happen. People saying its 48 hours away need to realize this is a train wreck for us by 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 At least it clears out and gets cold after this POS is done I was going to say, "who the hell wants that?", then I noticed the sad face. Arctic air/rainstorm/arctic air is no fun whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 wet/just warm enough cold/dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I love your analysis. Your right it's over 24 hours into the run when slp starts to develop in central Kansas with a trough axis way to our west. That low needs to be down in LA. From there on nothing good can happen. People saying its 48 hours away need to realize this is a train wreck for us by 24 hours. The good runs had exactly that. Slp in LA/AR. Even then we didn't have a lot of wiggle room. You make great points as well with keeping an eye on the trend of the front running stuff. When that started missing north the wheels were coming off. One thing I do with every model suite when were at shorter leads is toggle h5 panels at 12 hours on the new run and the same point in time with the previous. Every single time I did that today, h5 heights were creeping north. Very subtle but you could see it. Once I see that I know south isn't happening 48 hours down the line. Discouraging but nothing u can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The good runs had exactly that. Slp in LA/AR. Even then we didn't have a lot of wiggle room. You make great points as well with keeping an eye on the trend of the front running stuff. When that started missing north the wheels were coming off. One thing I do with every model suite when were at shorter leads is toggle h5 panels at 12 hours on the new run and the same point in time with the previous. Every single time I did that today, h5 heights were creeping north. Very subtle but you could see it. Once I see that I know south isn't happening 48 hours down the line. Discouraging but nothing u can do. models underestimated the strength of the northern stream vort a bit. That is pulling everything north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 models underestimated the strength of the northern stream vort a bit. That is pulling everything north. and overestimated, as they have so often done over the years outside of 48 hrs., the strength of the vortex in eastern Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Heres your pile of dung. Have fun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The good runs had exactly that. Slp in LA/AR. Even then we didn't have a lot of wiggle room. You make great points as well with keeping an eye on the trend of the front running stuff. When that started missing north the wheels were coming off. One thing I do with every model suite when were at shorter leads is toggle h5 panels at 12 hours on the new run and the same point in time with the previous. Every single time I did that today, h5 heights were creeping north. Very subtle but you could see it. Once I see that I know south isn't happening 48 hours down the line. Discouraging but nothing u can do. It all makes perfect sense. We act as though something been taken away when in reality this has happened many times before and will happen plenty in the future. Most of us have been doing this long enough to understand this. The fact that this is occurring on Feb. 1st opposed to Jan 1st is what's making it sting a lot more. Sine there hasn't been to much to date knowing were in Feb. now allows panic to set in. There will probably be at least several more chances because the cold is staying for awhile so it will snow again. I suspect we will all be focused on next Thursday very soon. In the meantime this was a great opportunity for many of us to learn just what it takes for a substantial snowstorm to take place in this region and realize how fast things can go wrong. I know the playful banter is fun through all this but an awful lot can be taken from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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