WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yep. This one is done. The only thing that I could see save us is if the the vort is A LOT weaker then is modeled. But then we only get a couple of inches regardless. This is not gonna be a thumper though. Why wouldn't we be happy with a couple inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Mike masco just went 4 inches plus for most of counties bordering the mason Dixon for those that were wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Navy doesn't look bad [shrug] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Mike masco just went 4 inches plus for most of counties bordering the mason Dixon for those that were wondering. draw a line from mt Carmel Rd east to Harford Co and west. North of there should be OK for accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Why wouldn't we be happy with a couple inches? I get it. Normally I would be loving that. But I was expecting the 6-10 that every model had at 12Z yesterday. I should probably take next winter off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The vort responsible for the storm comes in from Vancouver and barely gets below our latitude. Slp is forming barely south of our latitude in the Midwest. Expecting a near due east trajectory isn't going to work out. When we had good runs yesterday, slp was popping in LA and AR. We've gone backwards quite a bit. Bob, doesn't one of the vorts go south of us, the last X? To me, it just has the look of that SLP being given too much credit for punching a path into the HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I get it. Normally I would be loving that. But I was expecting the 6-10 that every model had at 12Z yesterday. I should probably take next winter off. Nah, you just need to hang in. This storm is 48 hours out. It will change....not necessarily in good way, but I'll bet it changes some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Justin berk just posted about arctic air being dense and hard to budge. Valid point so the question is how much dense arctic air gets into the region before this storm heads our way, among other factors of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 draw a line from mt Carmel Rd east to Harford Co and west. North of there should be OK for accums. Phew, just made the cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I can see this being more of a freezing rain hazard with a little CAD in the northern tier counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm confused. Is this storm driven by ns energy or the energy in the sw? If it's the northern piece I could see it trend south a little....they all have. My understanding is that this is mainly northern stream energy, phasing with some southern stream energy. Most of the SS energy stays put in the SW but the moisture streams northward. The NS vort amplifies to the point where it overwhelms the HP to the NW and thus goes too far north for our latitude. Oversimplified for sure, but it is what I have rendered from both the models and the more experienced posters on this forum. I am sure I will be parsed soon but that will only serve to clarify further my analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Justin berk just posted about arctic air being dense and hard to budge. Valid point so the question is how much dense arctic air gets into the region before this storm heads our way, among other factors of course. highs aren't exactly frigid tomorrow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 highs aren't exactly frigid tomorrow..... Maybe not frigid but cold for sure. 10 degree low temp 28 high temp in my neck of the woods. Will have to compare actual temps to forecasted ones tomorrow evening. Still qualifies as being part of an arctic air mass I beleive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krasnyoktyabr Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm interested in how the GFS is strengthening this low so much. Back when we were happy this was a 1007 L in SW Virginia, but now the GFS is modeling 997 L in northern WV. Is that an interaction between the northern and southern stream energy that hadn't been modeled in earlier runs? The northern vort does look more developed in the 18Z Friday than is did in the 18Z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Bob, doesn't one of the vorts go south of us, the last X? To me, it just has the look of that SLP being given too much credit for punching a path into the HP It's pretty shallow when the low forms in the Midwest but amplifies as it moves east. Surface lows form in front of vorts so even though technically the base of the vort passes south. The lp is long gone and north of us. The really short story is there really isn't any good reason for the storm to not gain latitude as it approaches. If it forms 150+ miles south we would be in business. Things look bleak. No sugarcoating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenfanalways Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 he was this morning, then i turned him off, too much garbage with the video!! I thought at least Msssco was supposed to be half intelligent but the "We know everything and the models know nothing" responses on facebook from Masco and JB2 has been pathetic and entertaining at the same time today. I mean I know why JB2 does it, once he was kicked off the air, all he has is his pay-per-impression advertisements to generate money so he hypes ever storm to death to get readers. If he wins that little contest he entered for "best meteorologist" in the country it will show everything that is wrong with Facebook. I don't get Masco though, not sure why he is taking this approach, in the past it seemed like he actually semi-supported hobbyists and others discussing models with him. This is hysterical, one of JB2's sheep was just called out because he asked if the storm is more rain than snow now because the air is too dry for it to snow so it's raining instead. That's who is voting him for that contest LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenfanalways Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This will over perform... Whatever we expect sat night... Double it. We have good cold air all over the place. If a front thump develops.. We will cash in. Mike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Justin berk just posted about arctic air being dense and hard to budge. Valid point so the question is how much dense arctic air gets into the region before this storm heads our way, among other factors of course. Would love to hear the smarter folks speak to this. I'm always hearing about "stale cold air" being a disaster for us, but this would seem to be "fresh, arctic air" this weekend, no? Maybe tougher to displace, as JB2 is saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I can see this being more of a freezing rain hazard with a little CAD in the northern tier counties. Euro today actually implied several hours of zr after about 3 inches of snow. I guess will see if that keeps showing up.That may go away cause we seem to warm a bit more with every new run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2015/01/30/impact-map-for-february-2-2015/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenfanalways Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Would love to hear the smarter folks speak to this. I'm always hearing about "stale cold air" being a disaster for us, but this would seem to be "fresh, arctic air" this weekend, no? Maybe tougher to displace, as JB2 is saying? While I'm not that smart (I am smarter than the average Tom Brady though), the positioning of the high pressure system matters too. It looks like this one actually instead of sitting over south east Canada slips down behind the storm as it moves east instead of blocking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenfanalways Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2015/01/30/impact-map-for-february-2-2015/ Only two months too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Only two months too early huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenfanalways Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 huh? What is two months from Sunday?.. .30 inches of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 huh? More like two months too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 21z SREF's nudge north and strengthen the low more, 40 degrees Monday Morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 21z SREF's nudge north and strengthen the low more, 40 degrees Monday Morning? NY to boston special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Shouldn't the Nam start rolling soon to reverse this trend it started last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Shouldn't the Nam start rolling soon to reverse this trend it started last night? shhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 out to hr 23, nothing yet to report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.