mdsnowlover Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Still like the looks of this system regardless of what the models are saying. Strong anticyclone to the north of the system should prevent the cutter that models are showing. With cold dry air in place the system will struggle to get too far north. With the overrunning that is likely to occur I see some advection fog being an issue and with the dynamics of the cyclone I could see some anvil crawlers occurring as well so look for some flashes of lightning. Look for WWA's to be posted soon and likely updraded to WSW's soon after that. They are just slow to pull the trigger after what happened last week. The models will have this storm coming south later tonight. Don't give up yet guys. that's the way mike masco is thinking too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Still looks like some snow for me, maybe rain/mix as well but I should be good for a few inches at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 He had a forecast?he did like a hit and run 6-12 post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 In reference to the rain during last year's super bowl, weren't all our good accumulating events after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Have to go to Interior MA to get snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Mike mascot is all in I am shocked. Next you will tell me that JB2 is all in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 He had a forecast? It was either 4-8 or 0.4-0.8 MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I am shocked. Next you will tell me that JB2 is all in... he was this morning, then i turned him off, too much garbage with the video!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The vort responsible for the storm comes in from Vancouver and barely gets below our latitude. Slp is forming barely south of our latitude in the Midwest. Expecting a near due east trajectory isn't going to work out. When we had good runs yesterday, slp was popping in LA and AR. We've gone backwards quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We bust with all abandon. You would think the worst case scenario was a front end dump. Well be lucky now to see precip We bust with suddenness. We transition to juicy rainstorms minutes after Arctic air masses run away. Somehow we manage to quickly go isothermal at 33 or 34 with heavy rain. In a winter where we have seen only brief mild periods, we still manage to fail regularly. The only way we haven't failed is by suppression...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This will over perform... Whatever we expect sat night... Double it. We have good cold air all over the place. If a front thump develops.. We will cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We bust with suddenness. We transition to juicy rainstorms minutes after Arctic air masses run away. Somehow we manage to quickly go isothermal at 33 or 34 with heavy rain. In a winter where we have seen only brief mild periods, we still manage to fail regularly. The only way we haven't failed is by suppression...yet. November if I recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I just watched Masco's model discussion and he does make good points about the arctic high but the 18z runs are even further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 November if I recall November doesn't count Either way, I am sure we can manage it in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 November doesn't count Either way, I am sure we can manage it in the next week. True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frowly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Guys do you think the 00Z suite could bring everything back down South a bit? This Winter saddens me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 he was this morning, then i turned him off, too much garbage with the video!! JB2 - "I like to follow trends and find the errors. If I am on to something, then the latest push north will end up with a result farther south. This is not wish-casting for snow, but spotting the errors. That is what happened on Sunday night with the last clipper and the impact of colder air with Thursday expanding those advisories south yesterday. " Thats some really interesting analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 JB2 - "I like to follow trends and find the errors. If I am on to something, then the latest push north will end up with a result farther south. This is not wish-casting for snow, but spotting the errors. That is what happened on Sunday night with the last clipper and the impact of colder air with Thursday expanding those advisories south yesterday. " Thats some really interesting analysis. its going to go south.... Because it came north? Oooookay.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The wait till 00z excuse will be over soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The wait till 00z excuse will be over soon only 7 hours til the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Trends are looking good recently. We have to be taking a run at the most 33* rains in a season, so let's bring thus one home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Trends are looking good recently. We have to be taking a run at the most 33* rains in a season, so let's bring thus one home! I lol'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I lol'd you should be nervous. I heard they're now banning thread starters of failures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 JB2 - "I like to follow trends and find the errors. If I am on to something, then the latest push north will end up with a result farther south. This is not wish-casting for snow, but spotting the errors. That is what happened on Sunday night with the last clipper and the impact of colder air with Thursday expanding those advisories south yesterday. " Thats some really interesting analysis. Models are not allowed to continue a trend continuously in the same direction after x # of runs. If he's right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Interesting these guys never fish out the times models are too cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Models are not allowed to continue a trend continuously in the same direction after x # of runs. If he's right... I recall reading a couple years ago of a news person describing a someplace as east of the north pole. If that philosophy works, then models can progress north indefinately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The vort responsible for the storm comes in from Vancouver and barely gets below our latitude. Slp is forming barely south of our latitude in the Midwest. Expecting a near due east trajectory isn't going to work out. When we had good runs yesterday, slp was popping in LA and AR. We've gone backwards quite a bit. That's the problem. If that low formed in the lower Mississippi valley and moved to west va, we would get a good front thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm confused. Is this storm driven by ns energy or the energy in the sw? If it's the northern piece I could see it trend south a little....they all have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The wait till 00z excuse will be over soon We will have to wait through the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That's the problem. If that low formed in the lower Mississippi valley and moved to west va, we would get a good front thump. Yep. This one is done. The only thing that I could see save us is if the the vort is A LOT weaker then is modeled. But then we only get a couple of inches regardless. This is not gonna be a thumper though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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