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Feb 1/2 Obs


nj2va

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Stop worry about the track. We just need to beef up precip in front while we still have some cold air.

I would rather get a slightly further south track and hope for some cold air on the tail end...maybe pick up a couple inches on the backside. Chancy, but front end thumps, while good for you and NW of the cities, generally suck for east of I-95.

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I think we should all get loaded on Sunday (or right now), watch the Super Bowl (ads), and try to forget this week of disaster ever happened. Come back Monday fresh, rejuvenated, and ready to track the last few rainstorms of winter.  Who's with me!?   :lol:

 

Raising a glass of Victory Dirtwolf in honor of all those who put in endless hours and nights...to be crapped on.  

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Still like the looks of this system regardless of what the models are saying. Strong anticyclone to the north of the system should prevent the cutter that models are showing. With cold dry air in place the system will struggle to get too far north. With the overrunning that is likely to occur I see some advection fog being an issue and with the dynamics of the cyclone I could see some anvil crawlers occurring as well so look for some flashes of lightning.

 

Look for WWA's to be posted soon and likely updraded to WSW's soon after that. They are just slow to pull the trigger after what happened last week. The models will have this storm coming south later tonight. Don't give up yet guys.

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Still like the looks of this system regardless of what the models are saying. Strong anticyclone to the north of the system should prevent the cutter that models are showing. With cold dry air in place the system will struggle to get too far north. With the overrunning that is likely to occur I see some advection fog being an issue and with the dynamics of the cyclone I could see some anvil crawlers occurring as well so look for some flashes of lightning.

 

Look for WWA's to be posted soon and likely updraded to WSW's soon after that. They are just slow to pull the trigger after what happened last week. The models will have this storm coming south later tonight. Don't give up yet guys.

Any particular reasons why you think it might go south?

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