ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Navy Nogaps is half way decent lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 For posterity... a textbook MA snow collapse GGEM: GGEM_Fail.jpg GFS: GFS_Fail.jpg Euro is just as bad but I'm not allowed to post it... no typical mid atlantic winter. Things change, so do computer runs. 66 years and nothing has changed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Navy Nogaps is half way decent lol It was better last night, still shifted north today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not really...I'm over this 2-3" mixing DC regular. I'm tired of reading about "mixing, with more accumulations in the N and W suburbs" on Capital Weather Gang on every event. Then you live in the wrong spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Then you live in the wrong spot. Life in CFA mang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's not a bad setup. Probably the best we've seen this year. But there was wrong way wiggle room and there were some signs of it before 18z yesterday where it became more obvious. The 12z euro/gfs combo yesterday was a real reason to get kinda excited but lying in the background was the dreaded wv track. Time to make lemonade and root for as much as we can get (if any) before the column goes to hell, Normally, the things I mentioned (more interaction in Plains etc.) would be a good thing as long as they bumped into a nice block. It would basically increase strength, moisture etc. But in this situation, we need that 850mb low over Ohio (which already isn't the greatest for snow climo in DC) to move SE. So these things end up hurting you guys. Honestly, I rather track a DC to PHL event than a PHL points north event for a change. It would feel more like a Nino this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Then you live in the wrong spot. no that's standard protocol in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Life in CFA mang. you got it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 your area still gets smoked for now at least Yeah, my area was smoked not too long ago and it led to quite the disaster up here. The fact that I'm in pretty snow colors doesn't bring me any confidence right now. That OH to PA 850mb low track will eventually cause problems here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Will be posting the EuroWX pictures when the time gets closer to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah, my area was smoked not too long ago and it led to quite the disaster up here. The fact that I'm in pretty snow colors doesn't bring me any confidence right now. That OH to PA 850mb low track will eventually cause problems here too. Agreed, just because models are painting some pretty pictures here in Philly, there is def much room for the north trend to continue. HM did you by chance see the GGEM @ 144 hours, any thoughts on next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Will be posting the EuroWX pictures when the time gets closer to the storm. hopefully not every panel because meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 hopefully not every panel because meh Just H66 - H90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Snow maps are silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Agreed, just because models are painting some pretty pictures here in Philly, there is def much room for the north trend to continue. HM did you by chance see the GGEM @ 144 hours, any thoughts on next week? Heck, just some issue with convection/latent heat could wrap this thing up even more quite easily. I want to see something in this progressive pattern start asserting itself more upstream that prevents stronger amplification. I haven't looked at the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Last storm was a bad sign. Atmospheric memory is real. If it happens again with a -NAO even if imperfect we're probably cooked except for nickling our way to something salvageable. I know exactly what you are saying but its not so much the atmoshpere has memory as there are long term driving forces that can lead to similar results. Either way the ground truth is the same. But I am not sure our problem right now is that. Things have shufled a lot this winter. We went from what would have been an amazing pattern in November had it continued to a chilly but awful pattern for snow in Dec through mid January (-EPO/-PNA/+NAO/+AO) and now things have evolved again into a new patter with a favorable PNA/EPO and a fairly neutral NAO/AO. There isnt really much history on this new pattern to say what the memory will be. For much of the winter no one was getting any snow as the prevailing storm track was either way north or suppressed. We have only had one storm so far since settling into this new pattern. This current setup actually wasnt a hostile one for us, but we needed the trough to dig just a little more and further east. Had the northern stream dug another 100 miles southeast of where it did we would be praising this pattern and a shift that small is just noise in the grand scheme of things. While I am as upset as everyone else about the specifics of our latest screw job I am not as down on the potential in this pattern going foreward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 All winter, we have seen short-term trends that reflect on the progressive nature to this pattern. The hope now is that happens here and prevents this thing from wrapping up into the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I like trends on the EURO so far, the shortwave entering the conus is a bit weaker and farther east (less time for it to amp up)...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 People are looking for complicated reasons this shifted north but its really simple, the northern stream energy was a little stronger, phased a little more and thus the low ended up just a bit stronger and north. I was looking at the major features and they are all just about identical from the 12z runs yesterday that showed a better solution for us. The difference is the storm is a little more amped earlier on. That shifts the track north just a bit. The other players, the high to the NW, the 50/50 low the high over greenland are about identical. The low going from 1007 to 1002 with a bit more northern stream energy is what did it in. If we had a perfect PNA/NAO combo then this wouldnt matter...more amped would even be better as it would still force the low under us but throw more qpf into us. I was totally wrong yesterday. I had not had the time to really look at the set up more then a glance but the nao/pna is not ideal and there really is nothing to prevent this from taking a more north track. The only way more amped would work was if the northern stream was digging more but the trough is fairly flat due to the PNA coming down at the worst possible time. Just want to say, this is great analysis, and the reason why I read this forum. I was trying and struggling to find a difference between GFS yesterday and GFS today (it seems like nearly every high east of Utah is in the same place), and the way the system amps up a LITTLE BIT more today at 36hrs looks like it's the only difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I like trends on the EURO so far, the shortwave entering the conus is a bit weaker and farther east (less time for it to amp up)...we'll see looks almost exactly the same as 0z thru 42/6z sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Light crap moving in around 15z Sun. moves to eastern half of area by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 looks almost exactly the same as 0z thru 42/6z sun. compared to the runs of the NAM and GFS, that's probably a good (better) thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest 850 at 48 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 compared to the runs of the NAM and GFS, that's probably a good (better) thing 57/21z low over Paducah.. a bit stonger than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 57/21z low over Paducah.. a bit stonger than last night. hmmm, that means it moved due east from 48 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=1&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 thru 63/3 Mon looks very close to last night still. heavier precip about to move into area.. still prob snow 66.. low maybe a smidge n over WV but 850s a little colder than last night around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 hmmm, that means it moved due east from 48 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=1&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Did that exact thing at 0z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 H60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not really...I'm over this 2-3" mixing DC regular. I'm tired of reading about "mixing, with more accumulations in the N and W suburbs" on Capital Weather Gang on every event. In fairness, I'm tired of reading posts from bet welchers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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