AlaskaETC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NYC and BOS get the Miller B hat trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think that's the RGEM, but the GGEM usually looks similar. No, its the Canadian or CMC, GGEM whatever...they have 50 names for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 LOL, you'd probably sell your soul Sunday morning to get 2-3" Not really...I'm over this 2-3" mixing DC regular. I'm tired of reading about "mixing, with more accumulations in the N and W suburbs" on Capital Weather Gang on every event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just read a WPC model discussion... NAZm is an outlier. 12z GFS and 00z Euro blend used as compromise...best support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NYC and BOS get the Miller B hat trick. Last storm was a bad sign. Atmospheric memory is real. If it happens again with a -NAO even if imperfect we're probably cooked except for nickling our way to something salvageable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM is okay, but it is a bit of a mess as the low cuts through WV and passes over us, but it says temps would be ok, if not marginal. Gives us 2-3". Meh... Maybe Euro has something? I think what Bob/Ian said it more realistic than a big shift back south....get a thump of moisture in here before the flip....either via a stronger low...or the models may just not be picking up on that yet...Canadian suggests it....even a 25 mile south shift with a thump could give many of us 1-2"+ before a flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think what Bob/Ian said it more realistic than a big shift back south....get a thump of moisture in here before the flip....either via a stronger low...or the models may just not be picking up on that yet...Canadian suggests it....even a 25 mile south shift with a thump could give many of us 1-2"+ before a flip Yes, I agree that a giant shift south is unrealistic at this point. Temperatures look marginal enough on GGEM, it would really be a mixing 1-2" I think? I'm tired of that stuff. I would rather have cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The front running precip is likely to set up along the axis of where the best snows will be. Always does. If there is ridging in front of this it will push that boundary north of us. This is a situation where the places north of the boundary get a nice snow, then south of it goes to very little precip at all quickly. Similar to early Feb last year where it went from 6-10" down to nothing in only 20 miles. We have more of a shot up here obviously, we only need about a 50 miles south shift and we are money but I am not even feeling very good about this right now. Seasonal trends can't be ignored, it just does not want to snow a LOT this year. We will get our customary 2-4" nickel and dime storm probably while north of us gets the 12" powerder again. Yeah, this one may be painful. At this point I don't think this thing goes drastically farther north but any nudge would favor a bit more north. I looked at the text output and it's downright disgusting for specifically us. Essentially we never get above freezing at the surface at the warmest point. Then .54 qpf falls between 6z and 12z. Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Last storm was a bad sign. Atmospheric memory is real. If it happens again with a -NAO even if imperfect we're probably cooked except for nickling our way to something salvageable. It seems like in the past we have an ok shot of getting some one-off decent storm at some point even if the rest of winter sucks....2/4/95, 2/8/97, 3/9/99, 1/25/04, 2/11/06, 3/1/09, 1/26/11....I don't disagree with certain patterns setting up...at the same time, sometimes things just align for one decent event even in the middle of a bunch of nickel and dime nonsense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yes, I agree that a giant shift south is unrealistic at this point. Temperatures look marginal enough on GGEM, it would really be a mixing 1-2" I think? I'm tired of that stuff. I would rather have cold rain. suit yourself....I wouldn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We need to hole this to save par. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It seems like in the past we have an ok shot of getting some one-off decent storm at some point even if the rest of winter sucks....2/4/95, 2/8/97, 3/9/99, 1/25/04, 2/11/06, 3/1/09, 1/26/11....I don't disagree with certain patterns setting up...at the same time, sometimes things just align for one decent event even in the middle of a bunch of nickel and dime nonsense... yeah it's probably silly to write it off entirely though I do think once you see a pattern it can be tricky to break out of. even in 09-10 we shut down as soon as NE started getting it good. it is early to give up -- esp with the ridiculously resilient ridge out west. almost time to start watching for chase season cancel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 yeah it's probably silly to write it off entirely though I do think once you see a pattern it can be tricky to break out of. even in 09-10 we shut down as soon as NE started getting it good. it is early to give up -- esp with the ridiculously resilient ridge out west. almost time to start watching for chase season cancel... My bar is set at 2-4" for this....time to salvage some self respect out of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GEFS support the OP though there is still some spread at 66 in terms of location of the low and intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Still looking for the elusive 4 incher this winter. I am not sure even this one can produce it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That GFS snow map and this whole situation reminds me a lot of the 2/21/2011 bust... although this busted 3 days ahead of time instead of 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 More Baja involvement, more northern stream involvement, less confluence now in Canada...this can get ugly quickly. The idea was a simple s/w with some Baja moisture running into Arctic Air yesterday. Now, we are making a solid cyclone with a lot more interaction of features in the Plains. I hate these kind of -NAO blocks. Thumb ridge/transient spokes into 50-50 position attached to the MAIN PV west is a recipe for quick removal. Uuuugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just read a WPC model discussion... NAZm is an outlier. 12z GFS and 00z Euro blend used as compromise...best support. Makes sense. The NAM solution was almost ridiculously to the northwest. GFS and Euro more or less go right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No, its the Canadian or CMC, GGEM whatever...they have 50 names for it. I think that site uses the RGEM (regional model) for the first 48 hours and GGEM (global model) for the rest. The first 48 hours become available when the RGEM comes out, and 49-120 become available when the GGEM comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Still looking for the elusive 4 incher this winter. I am not sure even this one can produce it here. This has 2-4 written all over it for Carroll. Hopefully it doesn't get all washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 More Baja involvement, more northern stream involvement, less confluence now in Canada...this can get ugly quickly. The idea was a simple s/w with some Baja moisture running into Arctic Air yesterday. Now, we are making a solid cyclone with a lot more interaction of features in the Plains. I hate these kind of -NAO blocks. Thumb ridge/transient spokes into 50-50 position attached to the MAIN PV west is a recipe for quick removal. Uuuugh and it did keep providing your input, maybe something will break in our favor, though I can't help but doubt it attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 More Baja involvement, more northern stream involvement, less confluence now in Canada...this can get ugly quickly. The idea was a simple s/w with some Baja moisture running into Arctic Air yesterday. Now, we are making a solid cyclone with a lot more interaction of features in the Plains. I hate these kind of -NAO blocks. Thumb ridge/transient spokes into 50-50 position attached to the MAIN PV west is a recipe for quick removal. Uuuugh It's not a bad setup. Probably the best we've seen this year. But there was wrong way wiggle room and there were some signs of it before 18z yesterday where it became more obvious. The 12z euro/gfs combo yesterday was a real reason to get kinda excited but lying in the background was the dreaded wv track. Time to make lemonade and root for as much as we can get (if any) before the column goes to hell, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This has 2-4 written all over it for Carroll. Hopefully it doesn't get all washed away. If it happens that will make it the 5th 2-4 incher , most being around 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Frankly, I like where we sit now. 3 runs in a row showing the north shift is over. It can only get better for us now. I'll take my chances that with 2 days to go the models haven't finished changing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'd bet on a stronger low to close from here but I've been mostly wrong this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 For posterity... a textbook MA snow collapse GGEM: GFS: Euro is just as bad but I'm not allowed to post it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Canadian is our best shot out of all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The Canadian is our best shot out of all guidance. Did we lose the DGEX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Did we lose the DGEX?before its range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 More Baja involvement, more northern stream involvement, less confluence now in Canada...this can get ugly quickly. The idea was a simple s/w with some Baja moisture running into Arctic Air yesterday. Now, we are making a solid cyclone with a lot more interaction of features in the Plains.I hate these kind of -NAO blocks. Thumb ridge/transient spokes into 50-50 position attached to the MAIN PV west is a recipe for quick removal. Uuuugh your area still gets smoked for now at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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