T. August Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not going to lie, I'm a little more calm after the 12z GFS. It won't take a huge south shift to put my area back in the game. DC area will be tougher though Hr 72 is so wet, and it's all snow right across the M/D line. A little shift south and we could get hit pretty good (sort of like yesterday's 12 EURO). Also, it looks like 1-2" at the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The good news is that I'll only have to drive 5-10 minutes in the cold rain to see 10 inches of snow, according to the GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 When's 12z GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow...somebody tell me where 40N starts again? It's depicted by that map almost to the mile, isn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hr 72 is so wet, and it's all snow right across the M/D line. A little shift south and we could get hit pretty good (sort of like yesterday's 12 EURO). Reminds me of Feb 3 last year.... a nice 4-8" storm from Parkton into PA. Mostly rain even a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Baltimore-north gets a decent snow before the rain. Looks like 2-3". Honestly, I'd rather it not snow if it'll be washed away by rain in the same day. How is that decent... when 100 north is a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Reminds me of Feb 3 last year.... a nice 4-8" storm from Parkton into PA. Mostly rain even a little further south. If Philly can go from 12-18 inches to essentially nothing within a 24 hour model cycle, surely we can go from nothing to something by tomorrow. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Canadian at 48..looks like a low on the OK/AR Border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I changed my mind, Im ready to give up. These models all seem to be doing the same thing. Probably overestimated the cold push south. People are looking for complicated reasons this shifted north but its really simple, the northern stream energy was a little stronger, phased a little more and thus the low ended up just a bit stronger and north. I was looking at the major features and they are all just about identical from the 12z runs yesterday that showed a better solution for us. The difference is the storm is a little more amped earlier on. That shifts the track north just a bit. The other players, the high to the NW, the 50/50 low the high over greenland are about identical. The low going from 1007 to 1002 with a bit more northern stream energy is what did it in. If we had a perfect PNA/NAO combo then this wouldnt matter...more amped would even be better as it would still force the low under us but throw more qpf into us. I was totally wrong yesterday. I had not had the time to really look at the set up more then a glance but the nao/pna is not ideal and there really is nothing to prevent this from taking a more north track. The only way more amped would work was if the northern stream was digging more but the trough is fairly flat due to the PNA coming down at the worst possible time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If Philly can go from 12-18 inches to essentially nothing within a 24 hour model cycle, surely we can go from nothing to something by tomorrow. MDstorm There are some ways to get something outside of a very unlikely shift back to 12z yesterdays runs. If slp forms far enough south and stronger, meaningful front end stuff is definitely possible. Probably the thing to root for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The image I posted, is obviously further north than 0z but thats to be expected...question is how much further N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Rain in KY is usually no bueno for us on this type of system. We would want snow into at least northern KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yesterday on Twitter, I noticed the 850mb low track was odd but it worked on the snowier solutions. On the cold solutions, the 850mb low tracked from Ohio/WV into VA and then to the coast. Now, it is moving due east across PA. This lack of E-SE motion from more s/w amplification is basically the problem. The hope now is watching to see if the progressive flow (next wave, interaction with Baja etc.) can prevent the current deeper solutions. A slightly less amplified s/w will not resist the Canadian flow, and the mid level circulations will move along with the ride, i.e. ESE instead of E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like GGEM is still going to hoist the colors for a snow "event" Common Yoda make it happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There are some ways to get something outside of a very unlikely shift back to 12z yesterdays runs. If slp forms far enough south and stronger, meaningful front end stuff is definitely possible. Probably the thing to root for at this point. The front running moisture could end up decent and more than currently modeled. Precip does seem to want to race into the area. Can't rule out a bit on the end as well. At hour 48 there is a 1036 high so some cold could hold on a little longer but that just may mean a period of some zr for some after following the initial period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Common Yoda make it happen Even if it looks good we won't buy it unless something else follows...I guess it keeps things undecided if it even shows something better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM still gets snow in here at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The front running moisture could end up decent and more than currently modeled. Precip does seem to want to race into the area. Can't rule out a bit on the end as well. At hour 48 there is a 1036 high so some cold could hold on a little longer but that just may mean a period of some zr for some after following the initial period of snow. The front running precip is likely to set up along the axis of where the best snows will be. Always does. If there is ridging in front of this it will push that boundary north of us. This is a situation where the places north of the boundary get a nice snow, then south of it goes to very little precip at all quickly. Similar to early Feb last year where it went from 6-10" down to nothing in only 20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Canadian has a .75" qpf 6hr panel near NYC. Bet those guys are pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The front running moisture could end up decent and more than currently modeled. Precip does seem to want to race into the area. Can't rule out a bit on the end as well. At hour 48 there is a 1036 high so some cold could hold on a little longer but that just may mean a period of some zr for some after following the initial period of snow. We have more of a shot up here obviously, we only need about a 50 miles south shift and we are money but I am not even feeling very good about this right now. Seasonal trends can't be ignored, it just does not want to snow a LOT this year. We will get our customary 2-4" nickel and dime storm probably while north of us gets the 12" powerder again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM still gets snow in here at 66 Your post sounds more like a consolation prize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Canadian has a .75" qpf 6hr panel near NYC. Bet those guys are pumped. That can't be good down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 72 is so close...Mason/Dixon Line gets wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM is okay, but it is a bit of a mess as the low cuts through WV and passes over us, but it says temps would be ok, if not marginal. Gives us 2-3". Meh... Maybe Euro has something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The image I posted, is obviously further north than 0z but thats to be expected...question is how much further N I think that's the RGEM, but the GGEM usually looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like a Hybrid type MILLER B on the CMC. Low rides up the apps them moves Due SE to cross over VA and off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 72 is so close...Mason/Dixon Line gets wet snow that's the best you can do? Come on ggem is all we had left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM is okay, but it is a bit of a mess as the low cuts through WV and passes over us, but it says temps would be ok, if not marginal. Gives us 2-3". Meh... Maybe Euro has something? LOL, you'd probably sell your soul Sunday morning to get 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM still gets snow in here at 66 It's what we want given the setup....get a slug of moisture here before we flip....I don't have soundings, but it looks like 2-4" with some mixing for the NW burbs before the flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That can't be good down here Looks like .1-.25" as snow potential for everyone at least.. more up near the PA/MD border. It's a bit south of the GFS with the low passage but fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.