WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 what are you guys worried about? We have 2 great models that still show snow. LOL....that wouldn't be snow for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It is just not our winter. Low jumped from northern Texas at hour 48 to Illinois at hour 54 and rest is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 what are you guys worried about? We have 2 great models that still show snow. did you look at the next panel? it wasn't pretty http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Surface low has from e TN to eastern OH since 18z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I know some mets/knowledgeable people were talking about a transient block in the last few days. I'm guessing that's trending weaker? Just wondering what's causing this from a met. perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 did you look at the next panel? it wasn't pretty http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif ii thought it only went out to 72 hours on 00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I know some mets/knowledgeable people were talking about a transient block in the last few days. I'm guessing that's trending weaker? Just wondering what's causing this from a met. perspective. It's a combination of hp nosing down and also into se canada being weaker and the clipper that bombs out moves out a little faster than the good runs. We lose confluence a little earlier and causes heights to be a little higher as the storm approaches. Less confluence + less hp + transient 50/50 moving a little faster = north track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 this is a gonner 12Z RGEM at 48 hrs. is certainly more amped than the 60 hr. GGEM from last night's run I know, not the same model, but the writing is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This (model flip) just goes back to the old "warm/wet vs cold/dry" theory. Well, not so much a theory as truth in MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 well probably never see zwyts post here again. There is really no hope after this storm. There is nothing exciting that we can point too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 6z from today on top and 12z yesterday on the bottom. Little things mean a lot. There was no reason to believe that things would go awry @ 12z yesterday because most guidance looked the same and the majority of ensembles agreed with the track. The nw track was never off the table though....obviously..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 well probably never see zwyts post here again. There is really no hope after this storm. There is nothing exciting that we can point too-10 on Tuesday morning might still be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Pretty amazing really. Some winters it just doesn't want to snow. RGEM looks amped at 48 hours, pretty sure GGEM will follow suit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 -10 on Tuesday morning might still be fun. The GFS increased lows by 18 degrees at DCA between the 18z and 6z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 -10 on Tuesday morning might still be fun. Mud radiates just as good as snow. Fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GFS increased lows by 18 degrees at DCA between the 18z and 6z runs. To be fair, record lows should have been an early indicator that the low tracking south was unlikely to stick around. Moderate the temps to a reasonable level (low teens), and the preceding low has to come north, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z GFS has initialized. This isn't last winter. Probably the final nail in the coffin. Through 6 hours the High moving toward the coast looks quite strong and the moisture is west across the desert. Not a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z GFS has initialized. This isn't last winter. Probably the final nail in the coffin. we're usually in the game through february, though i agree last year's march was uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Through 6 hours the High moving toward the coast looks quite strong and the moisture is west across the desert. Not a good start. On the ncep site, it looks like it initialized with yesterday's 12z data? Am I just not reading it right? (time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS already has a stronger high and everything in the SW is south compared to 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On the ncep site, it looks like it initialized with yesterday's 12z data? Am I just not reading it right? Doesn't look like it. I'm viewing on the NCEP page and PSU E-Wall. (time sensitive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Its actually not as bad as the NAM as far as the HP goes. It is pressing more. But I dont know if its gonna be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS looks like it will be south hahahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS looks like it will be south hahahah South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The coastal high is still strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 South? Yep high is much much stronger compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 1045 H looks like its pushing in harder and faster with the cold air/confluence at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 To be fair, record lows should have been an early indicator that the low tracking south was unlikely to stick around. Moderate the temps to a reasonable level (low teens), and the preceding low has to come north, too. It was at least somewhat snow enhanced and probably a model error of some sort. We know the Euro has a cold surface bias in those types of situations and the GFS was even colder. The air mass is pretty legit otherwise if it is well placed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yep high is much much stronger compared to 6zIf by much you mean a tiny bit, then I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yep high is much much stronger compared to 6z I don't think so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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