BlizzardNole Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If we go from bitter cold tomorrow to a mix-to-rain event, then back to bitter cold, I'll be sick. I would much rather just be in the 50s. What a gut punch after having a good track last Saturday but no cold around; now we have the cold but a bad track? Damn. Sorry about the snowmiserating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 6z sealed the deal going from blip to trend I think Yeah I guess we're toast here as far as an all-snow event unless something drastic happens at 12z. Now it's back to the usual wondering if there will be an appreciable front-end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ensembles look better... GFS/Euro Ens. means are slightly south of Ops, though not enough to really mean much for the immediate DC zone. 850mb spread is pretty evenly distributed around the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ensembles look better... GFS/Euro Ens. means are slightly south of Ops, though not enough to really mean much for the immediate DC zone. 850mb spread is pretty evenly distributed around the means. Well that is something I guess. I still think the CAD is going to be a stronger than the models are showing. I would think we have a chance for some decent snows Sunday evening. But I am not very good at forecasting so just take that with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I have never liked storms taking that particular track toward east coast. Having said that it's still a very close call.The last two runs same to have stabilized the north trend so I think we may still end up with a good event. If the 12z run continues to show the north progression is over, then maybe we will see a slight reversal to the south and maybe that's what the earlier weather statement alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This thread is a train wreck. All the moaning and wailing about one suite of runs. That's why I checked out of here after the gfs. Why don't we give it another suite or even two before we seal our doom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well that is something I guess. I still think the CAD is going to be a stronger than the models are showing. I would think we have a chance for some decent snows Sunday evening. But I am not very good at forecasting so just take that with a grain of salt. the amount of CAD is a direct function to the strength of the vortex off Newfoundland that is now developing to our NE......just look at the snow developing right now so, it comes down to its ultimate strength and location I mentioned yesterday that the cause for many of our last minute jogs north over the years have been to computers overly strengthening that feature; recent model runs say the same thing has happened we could still pull it out if the PNA was to rise more than progged even if the vortex is as weak as the model (save GGEM and maybe 1 or 2 others), but it's hard to fight a long history of the computers giving us false hopes over the years (a virtual error) and this season's trends (a virtual travesty) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This thread is a train wreck. All the moaning and wailing about one suite of runs. That's why I checked out of here after the gfs. Why don't we give it another suite or even two before we seal our doom? so now you demand sanity.....that's not fair nor possible lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Figures the only time the 84hr nam is right is when it f's us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like the SREF MSLP came north again. The NCEP maps are terrible to read but it looks like the track goes from southern IN/northern KY across southern OH and pretty much directly overhead to southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 new srefs look worse than last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 new srefs look worse than last run Let's take solace in the fact that they ingest 6z data for the 9z SREFs....we can hold onto that hope until the 12z suite comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 in fact, on the latest sref, the 0-850 line passes to our north before any precip falls like I said last night, by this afternoon, it'll be all rain may or may not happen that way, but it sure is headed that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'd wait a little longer too but it's not like people are reacting to a small shift with one model. Virtually all the "reliable" ones went from lock step MA special to lock step we're fooked. Inside 72hrs. Who doesn't get tired of praying for a reverse trend at the last minute? Our area has had to do it three times in the last week. ^ what he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Considering we are coming up on 48 hrs out the models have likely locked on to something that will not change very much. I think some minor jogs south or north are possible but a full on shift back to the south is unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I guess that there still is enough spread to see decent snow here...but in the years of doing this hobby I have rarely seen models reverse a north trend inside of 72 hours. That said here is HPC's quote on the 0z model suite: THE PREVAILING SHIFT IN THE 00Z MODELS WAS FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE WPC FORECAST...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE DAY 2 ONWARD. HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TEMPERED BY THE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN ALONG THE WITH DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODELS MAY REVERSE TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. By far the most sofisticated way of saying "your guess is as good as mine" that I have seen for this one. That's pretty much what much what most mets strive for... How effectively they can communicate uncertainty. That's a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well it certainly makes you wonder about raising confidence when there is model consensus. Model consensus just means they fail as a consensus. They led us astray again. Kudos to those who stuck to their guns that a northerly track was favored in spite of the model consensus and slightly -nao. Wes, you really made that point well and I consider you the best forecaster in the region. Still time, and the models could be in consensus error again. As we say numerous times each winter, we do cold rain very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Considering we are coming up on 48 hrs out the models have likely locked on to something that will not change very much. I think some minor jogs south or north are possible but a full on shift back to the south is unlikely at this point. Yeah...I would bet on a minor event at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Freakin Lucy and the football - Charlie Brown (us) can't catch a break. Not completely giving up hope but need to see something with the 12z runs. Oh well - bring on Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not sure what all the towel throwing is all about over a couple of runs. Models have been so bad lately. Look at the last storm. NAM had Philly, NYC and NJ buried in snow literally up until the storm hit, and look how that turned out. Euro, same deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not sure what all the towel throwing is all about over a couple of runs. Models have been so bad lately. Look at the last storm. NAM had Philly, NYC and NJ buried in snow literally up until the storm hit, and look how that turned out. Euro, same deal. Totally different setup... That was a sharp western cutoff situation in a deepening nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not sure what all the towel throwing is all about over a couple of runs. Models have been so bad lately. Look at the last storm. NAM had Philly, NYC and NJ buried in snow literally up until the storm hit, and look how that turned out. Euro, same deal. Yup... North shift. Probably happen with this one too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 6z sealed the deal going from blip to trend I think Why would you say that... Does the off runs us the same data as the production runs? I would wait for a production run before I give up hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yup... North shift. Probably happen with this one too My guess is the NAM will come even further north this run. Won't be much but at this point every little inch north is less frozen for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmjokers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I was no confident in the solutions yesterday because the NS energy was still offshore. I believe that for most storms this year, the model solutions have been highly variable until the NS vort is onshore and with the fast flow, we have a short lead time before we get the "right" solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I was no confident in the solutions yesterday because the NS energy was still offshore. I believe that for most storms this year, the model solutions have been highly variable until the NS vort is onshore and with the fast flow, we have a short lead time before we get the "right" solution. You sure about that... Ask Philly and New York about your quote. The models have even been horrible within 24 hours of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM is running... with no trend back south... I am throwing in the white flag on winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What's so odd is the fact that the shift over the last couple runs was over hundreds of miles from central North Carolina to central West Virginia from 18Z to 6Z. There's no way the oscillating is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 In all seriousness...that was a fairly large shift...if it had done that shift in the other direction we should question it for at least another cycle....so I'm gonna say if 12z holds or slightly improves then 0z will be my hit it or quit it run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM is running... with no trend back south... I am throwing in the white flag on winter... Good grief........it's out to 10 hours. Were you really looking for a trend by 4 o'clock this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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