Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's not something to let get out of hand tho we can always switch to front end and or back end thump mode. The crossroads. We've been here many times. Thrill of victory or agony of defeat. It's going to snow. Where we go from there is in the hands of the Canadians for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Question is......how much further can this push north? I'd like to think we have another 24 hours or so to get back on a south trend.It could definitely go north of/over us. Pattern is decent to good but not really a slam dunk. Last storm probably argues for New England to feel best at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You get some snow. By 6z Mon. morning you're right at freezing and slightly behind the zero line. About .30 has fallen. Probably as snow.Thank you. Looks like i get about 4" according to the snow maps. If that can hold I would be fine with that. Looks like you get between 6-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thank you. Looks like i get about 4" according to the snow maps. If that can hold I would be fine with that. Looks like you get between 6-7".Ehh I'm not going to adjust my expectations based on a run of models. We have suffered through a cold miserable winter. It's time to get a flush hit. I'm not even happy if I get 5-6" of crud if 30 miles north of me has 12" powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 03z SREFs look to have the low track through C VA Also has us switch over to sleet (6 hrs of > 0c 850s -- hrs 75 and 78) i would guess then back to snow as MSLP departs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM ensemble mean says we are good to go... follows the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Too many L's to our north and west to be comfortable. NAM is running and looks similar to the 0z at 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Too many L's to our north and west to be comfortable. NAM is running and looks similar to the 0z at 33. That map says ggem out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The NAM at 51 doesn't look much different than the last run. Maybe a tad north? Anyway, it doesn't look good. Hope I'm wrong. Off to work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The NAM at 51 doesn't look much different than the last run. Maybe a tad north? Anyway, it doesn't look good. Hope I'm wrong. Off to work... Its terrible, ugly run for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Larry Cosgrove said this would be an ice event. Looks like he may just be right. TWow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 HPC's model diagnostic discussion says they have a suspicion that the Euro and GFS will come back south at 12z. Not feeling it, but they're the pro mets so we'll see if they are correct. At least it's some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 HPC's model diagnostic discussion says they have a suspicion that the Euro and GFS will come back south at 12z. Not feeling it, but they're the pro mets so we'll see if they are correct. At least it's some hope. Yeah by then the Low will cut into Cleveland. Horrible runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What does UK MET say? It's been deadly this year within three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well, based on the comments on this page, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the overnight runs took our imaginary snow away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Went to sleep before the 0z GFS thinking "it's just the nam" and wake up to the event being done....that was quick. I guess this wasn't a simple a setup that models could nail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krasnyoktyabr Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The problem with the GFS north has everything to do with the high pressure out in front of the storm and not much to do with the high to the north. The plains high has been modeled at the same strength and position for the last 4 runs, but the high in the Atlantic has strengthened and moved from ots to right off the SC coast. The only way this storm comes back south is if that high is modeled too strong and too close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 although it happened one time last year, the fact is they rarely ever trend back south after coming north this close to start time ....and, it fits the pattern for us getting slop/rain vs. all snow this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 although it happened one time last year, the fact is they rarely ever trend back south after coming north this close to start time ....and, it fits the pattern for us getting slop/rain vs. all snow this year Yeah I think we can just about stick a fork in this one if nothing good happens at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What does UK MET say? It's been deadly this year within three days. terrible.....low in WVA and tracks through S PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The problem with the GFS north has everything to do with the high pressure out in front of the storm and not much to do with the high to the north. it's actually both hp,s. The northern hp is not pushing as soon or as hard as was modeled earlier. It's not even getting enough cold air in here for a decent cad and front end thump. Unless the models are wrong about that. This one is toast. The plains high has been modeled at the same strength and position for the last 4 runs, but the high in the Atlantic has strengthened and moved from ots to right off the SC coast. The only way this storm comes back south is if that high is modeled too strong and too close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is for all the visitors coming in here looking for info on their 6-10" of powder: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow. 24 hours ago we had the best gfs run of the winter as far as snow chances go. This mornings gfs might be one of the worst of the winter. Unbelievable really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 terrible.....low in WVA and tracks through S PA I think models may be locking into this. That high pressure off the coast of SC may be too strong though per the models, so we'll see. Not a good feeling though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 HPC's model diagnostic discussion says they have a suspicion that the Euro and GFS will come back south at 12z. Not feeling it, but they're the pro mets so we'll see if they are correct. At least it's some hope. I guess that there still is enough spread to see decent snow here...but in the years of doing this hobby I have rarely seen models reverse a north trend inside of 72 hours. That said here is HPC's quote on the 0z model suite: THE PREVAILING SHIFT IN THE 00Z MODELS WAS FOR A MORE NORTHERLYTRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE WPCFORECAST...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE DAY 2 ONWARD. HOWEVER FORECASTCONFIDENCE WAS TEMPERED BY THE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THEMODELS HAVE SHOWN ALONG THE WITH DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THEMODELS MAY REVERSE TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I guess that there still is enough spread to see decent snow here...but in the years of doing this hobby I have rarely seen models reverse a north trend inside of 72 hours. That said here is HPC's quote on the 0z model suite: THE PREVAILING SHIFT IN THE 00Z MODELS WAS FOR A MORE NORTHERLYTRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE WPCFORECAST...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE DAY 2 ONWARD. HOWEVER FORECASTCONFIDENCE WAS TEMPERED BY THE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THEMODELS HAVE SHOWN ALONG THE WITH DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THEMODELS MAY REVERSE TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. sounds like a very professionally stated wishcast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I guess that there still is enough spread to see decent snow here...but in the years of doing this hobby I have rarely seen models reverse a north trend inside of 72 hours. That said here is HPC's quote on the 0z model suite: THE PREVAILING SHIFT IN THE 00Z MODELS WAS FOR A MORE NORTHERLYTRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE WPCFORECAST...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE DAY 2 ONWARD. HOWEVER FORECASTCONFIDENCE WAS TEMPERED BY THE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THEMODELS HAVE SHOWN ALONG THE WITH DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THEMODELS MAY REVERSE TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. It would be a miracle if they reversed course, but it is possible. If they do, I swear I'm not believing models outside of 24 hours anymore. I'm going to have a stroke if I do believe them. Damn this hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It would be a miracle if they reversed course, but it is possible. If they do, I swear I'm not believing models outside of 24 hours anymore. I'm going to have a stroke if I do believe them. Damn this hobby. 6z sealed the deal going from blip to trend I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 6z sealed the deal going from blip to trend I think I think you're right. By the way, did the mods ever put a banter ban on this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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