Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Oh I know it is going to bad. Nothing is easy around here. It's definitely north out west thru 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Vort looks N/W w/ the earlier phase suggested. Hoping confluence wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 15z Sun sfc reflection in Mo v idea of one in Ar prior run. Light precip into area about same as prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The H is moving to the Plains at 54... hopefully it gets it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 stronger low in central KY at 0z Mon compared to broad stretched low going into AL/MS earlier.. not a huge shift north but a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 stronger low in central KY at 0z Mon compared to broad stretched low going into AL/MS earlier.. not a huge shift north but a shift. Is confluence shutting the door on the MSLP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 nextDamn that is painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Damn that is painful. Actually, N MD might be OK.. let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Actually, N MD might be OK.. let's see.Even if we are ok,with the north trends im sure i will be fooked by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Again, problems showed up early. Not a shocker after the 0z USA runs. Ooph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Actually, N MD might be OK.. let's see. Eh maybe.. Looks like GFS mostly. Poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just one model suite... lets see what the 12z have for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sounds identical to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Marginally better. Sharp cutoff for snow right at the M/D line. Sounds identical to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just one model suite... lets see what the 12z have for us Yes. And not to get ahead of ourselves (not yet giving up on this one), I'm curious to see how the EC handles the 2/5-2/6 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Trend isn't good, but it's still not that far off. It wouldn't take a big shift south to get us right back in it. On this run, York is like 6-8" while Baltimore is around an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Marginally better. Sharp cutoff for snow right at the M/D line.As in no snow south of the MD line?.Edit: i see you just answered that above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Trend isn't good, but it's still not that far off. It wouldn't take a big shift south to get us right back in it. On this run, York is like 6-8" while Baltimore is around an inch or so. yeah it's close.. we still have time for it to trend south next run and then to raleigh by game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The jury is still out but the new gfs seems pretty good compared to the euro if you stick with 0z and 12z runs. Not happy about where we are going tonight but the upgrade might be be an upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Low ends up coming across just south of DC vs being in southern VA on the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 looks like 1-3"...it is better than the GFS for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I take that back....by the time the precip is exiting York is closer to an 8-12" event. Northern MD isn't awful....3-4"?? Damn thing just dumps on the entire state of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 looks like 1-3"...it is better than the GFS for sure... South trend must happen in 12 hours or were in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 South trend must happen in 12 hours or were in trouble. Canadian ensembles support the OP..flush hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Two hours til the 6Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 looks like 1-3"...it is better than the GFS for sure... tight range of 1" to 6" of snowmap from us to mapgirl on wxbell. but this sort of feels a little like last week even if it's different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 South trend must happen in 12 hours or were in trouble.It's not something to let get out of hand tho we can always switch to front end and or back end thump mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 As in no snow south of the MD line?. Edit: i see you just answered that above You get some snow. By 6z Mon. morning you're right at freezing and slightly behind the zero line. About .30 has fallen. Probably as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Question is......how much further can this push north? I'd like to think we have another 24 hours or so to get back on a south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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