84 Hour NAM Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 CMC might be the best run of any model yet. SLP crosses in northern NC off ORF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow, GGEM is a mauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 CMC is literally PERFECT Low goes off NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 CMC might be the best run of any model yet. SLP crosses in northern NC off ORF It did trend north from 12z. Anyway nothing matters till euro runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hot off the press That's a bit reassuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Pretty big h5 difference than the gfs even at hr 54. I'll hug it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It did trend north from 12z. Anyway nothing matters till euro runs yes..when it had a low over Atlanta EDIT - It has a low over ATL this run...just takes a more NE trajectory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 yes..when it had a low over Atlanta Lol. I think we're giving too much respect to The gfs just because of last week. The redskins beat the Eagles this year. It happens but I'll only panic tonight if euro looks like gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM is a bad model. It showed the weekend rainstorm as i-95 foot of snow like 3.5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We're all anxiously awaiting the EC but I think we should be equally eager to see the trends in the GEFS and EC ensembles, as in how many more members trended north or south, and how do the means compare to the previous suite. I won't find out until I wake up in the morning, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 As some of the runs did a few days ago, lol! Still, I'm going to remain quasi-optimistic. Whether there's a separate HP center north of us or not...that's some awfully cold air to work with at lower levels not far to our north going into Sunday afternoon -- certainly some real good evap cooling potential for a while. I'm not saying the system should be overly suppressed, but goodness, I just think those heights to the north are a bit too high all things considered. And the SLP track from KY ene, up and over the central Apps mind you, just doesn't seem that realistic considering the degree of antecedent cold air/low wetbulbs in place at the onset. Either there really isn't much in-situ CAD to work with (hard to believe), or the NAM/GFS aren't just handling it very well. Not saying this won't play out as advertised by the 00Z NAM/GFS and 18Z GEFS mean...I just wouldn't be shocked to see a southward trend (yet again) beginning at 12Z. I sure hope it shifts back to the south. I couldn't believe the surface pattern of the GFS...nose of the High into Texas. Earlier runs it was up across the plains and Great Lakes. Any further north track and its WAA, 50F with dense fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS looks a lot like Feb 2nd last year (or was it the 3rd?)... rain/snow line in the same exact spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What's sad is that the arctic air is not far to the north, and the wave is compact enough that it shouldn't amplify too much in the cold air -- compared to an inland-running Miller A. The SLP never gets below 1000 mb while crossing the mid Atlantic. Given the antecedent cold air...the arctic variety just to our north...I can certainly see the SLP track and 850 mb low track shift farther south. I mean, if we can't suppress a 1000+ SLP to our south under these antecedent conditions, when can we? What's sad is that the arctic air is not far to the north, and the wave is compact enough that it shouldn't amplify too much in the cold air -- compared to an inland-running Miller A. The SLP never gets below 1000 mb while crossing the mid Atlantic. Given the antecedent cold air...the arctic variety just to our north...I can certainly see the SLP track and 850 mb low track shift farther south. I mean, if we can't suppress a 1000+ SLP to our south under these antecedent conditions, when can we? It's all about the high. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM is a bad model. It showed the weekend rainstorm as i-95 foot of snow like 3.5 days out.It was off half a degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Lol. I think we're giving too much respect to The gfs just because of last week. The redskins beat the Eagles this year. It happens but I'll only panic tonight if euro looks like gfs we don't know enough about the new GFS yet in terms of how it handles east coast winter storms at different ranges...We know the Canadian is high res and can be great and can be awful....It led on a couple events last winter...It also acted as cautionary guidance when Euro/GFS were lockstep and the Canadian wasn't....and often there was something to it....As we know the euro is kind of a rock...it will probably look similar to 12z...perhaps north a tad...I don't think it will cave to the GFS (i hope not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Come on guys it's going to be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ggem has room to trend north a bit again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hot off the press Looks like WPC is not buying the northward shift. Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM is a bad model. It showed the weekend rainstorm as i-95 foot of snow like 3.5 days out. since its upgrade it has been very hot and cold...had a better winter last winter than this one...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like WPC is not buying the northward shift. Hmmmm Those images went out before the GFS came in.. but they hopefully aren't as big of model huggers as we are here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The UKMET is way north at 72, it would even screw NYC and parts of SNE, but it was also north on its 12Z run as well through 72, so it did not really make a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Anyone look at the new Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Anyone look at the new Canadian? Someone mentioned it was a good hit I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Anyone look at the new Canadian? Yeah...when we say GGEM or CMC we mean the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GEFS support the OP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ggem has room to trend north a bit again this run looked like its ensemble mean at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GEFS support the OP... not what I was hoping to hear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GEFS support the OP... the ensemble mean on the last couple runs were similar to the operational too idk what to think and can only use 4-letter words to speak right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 not what I was hoping to hear... You could make the case it is slightly colder...I mean it definitely is...but the mean track is similar...looks like it has a cluster of members southeast of the OP though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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