snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Woof. A good bit north. Congrats Pennsylvania and upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 it'll be a rainstorm by tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks exactly like the 18z gefs members that we didn't want it to look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No doubt. HP to the n isn't as strong and heights in front are higher than 18z. Discouraging. MY guess is that the euro will also come north a tad. Still now real blocking to the north so if you get a little more amplitude to your wave, the low tends ot lift north a more. Time for bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Stronger vort and less push from the HP. Still will be a good front end though. you are the only one rooting for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 there's no High pressure over the Lakes because the vort tonight go outta' New England the first flight east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Before we all lose oursleves... lets see what the ensembles show as well as the GGEM/EURO later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Now what were we saying about the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Stronger vort and less push from the HP. Still will be a good front end though. Not really. Not around the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Pretty lousy way to end the day especially after the prior three runs of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So it's basically like forget the last 24-36 hours of model runs...we're heading right back to what we were originally thinking a few days ago for Feb 1-2 (and hoping for the 5th-6th system). Well, ain't that just lovely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 terrible run.. jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not really. Not around the metro areas. The I-81 guys might as well be in a different forum from the beltways people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 People just love to bash the NAM. It's perfectly capable of picking up on trends. Has before and will again. Now what were we saying about the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The NAM was all snow here. The GFS is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 How soon until the WSW goes up...for Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The I-81 guys might as well be in a different forum from the beltways people. This run is just awful for anyone 20 miles south of the m/d. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The writing on the wall began with the 12z Euro plus the fact we were still 60 hours away. The trend is there and not in our favor..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The I-81 guys might as well be in a different forum from the beltways people. Verbatim, its not even a good run for the 81 corridor until you get north of Hagerstown into PA. In fact, this run sucked for the entire state of Virginia. I'm not sure why anyone would think there was a good front end thump there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 How soon until the WSW goes up...for Boston? Yeah, what were those time frames for the WSW again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Beats me why anyone wanted to say this was high probability earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well, the risk was there. Enough guidance showing this track to worry. Not set in stone of course but you could see it coming pretty early in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Verbatim, its not even a good run for the 81 corridor until you get north of Hagerstown into PA. In fact, this run sucked for the entire state of Virginia. I'm not sure why anyone would think there was a good front end thump there. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Beats me why anyone wanted to say this was high probability earlier today NAM, GFS and Euro were all on board. When there's a consensus like that you can't help but be a little excited about the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Call me crazy but Im still not that worried..we see this all the time where models show some consistency about 4 days out and then they change just to go back to what it showed 4 days out. I think this will trend back south with time...call it wishful thinking, I just feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well, the risk was there. Enough guidance showing this track to worry. Not set in stone of course but you could see it coming pretty early in the run. the most infuriating part for me is that when there is that kind of model consistency for a snow to our north at this range, it happens 95% of the time us? 5% if we're lucky winter, from a snow perspective, is over in my mind w/o blocking Cohen, you suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM, GFS and Euro were all on board. When there's a consensus like that you can't help but be a little excited about the potential. How many times has this happened in the last couple years only to be disappointed at game time? Honestly as I said with the NAM, I think this is a great time to have this solution. We have a bit of wiggle room now until we're within 24 hours or so. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 And my dumb ass was worried about suppression issues earlier. Frustrating frikin hobby man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The first analog on all those model based SV maps was rain for DC... hrmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I said at the 12Z Euro today that we were only 50 miles away from a shut-out. Didn't really understand all the optimism then to be modeled in such a precarious position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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