BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There's always a chance (heck likelihood if history has anything to say about it) that the NAM (and SREF for that matter) will shift farther south and colder. That's what they do within 48. I'd really be curious to see if the GFS can hold, and how the EC will trend. The thing with that current NAM slp track -- it's not only the warming aloft (potential mixing) to worry about, but oh that dreaded dry slot. Yes, we'll always have that front end thump -- but I'd rather it be closer to 4-6" vs. 2-4" or (gulp) 1-2". There couldn't be a more perfect time for what the NAM just spit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Folks around here generally say be Wary of the NAM outside of 24 hours. What is your opinion on this matter? It is the NAM but it must be not be overlooked. It certainly does better at shorter range but could very well be giving an indication of something. Just about every storm has an outlier...some more noticeable than others. in this case it looks like there is a delay with the arctic air moving in. Not out of the question...but I hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Id rather have the dry slot then the rain. Front end thumps to dry slot can work out decent. 3-5 to dry slot is not the end of the world. Yep. Quite often the front end WWA stuff transitions to a light sleety, drizzly mix with the SLP track closer to us (as per the NAM). So it's not the end of the world. What we get on the backside (if any) would be a bigger question. Either way, we would need that SLP to track farther south...certainly south of the 00Z NAM, and it would be even better to be a touch south of the 18Z runs. Need that upper level confluence to the north to become more w-e oriented and pressed down a little farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Fair enough, and I'm not really trying to parse it. Just throwing out the caution is all, but I think we all have been pretty cautious anyhow. Too easy around here to wait for the shoe to drop, so to speak. On a lighter note, in reference to you saying the NAM has a history of being a "laughingstock toward the end of its run". Recall last year, I believe with that Feb. 12-13 storm, the NAM at one time 78-84 hours out was developing this bomb right behind that system that would have been a ton of ice followed by a wash out rain storm?? Of course that disappeared right after that run. We could fill a 20 page thread with examples. I usually rant about the NAM once a winter. Hopefully this is it. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just a weird quirk Tbh. I studied hard during my years in the Rockies because snow setups are basically range specific. Since I was addicted to powder skiing I spent a lot of time understanding exactly what to look for to get good snow in my specific county. I was really good at it. It's no different with my yard here. Unfortunately much less prolific. Haha Eta: what matt said. I'm a one trick pony in small region. It really is silly but fun. Just a weird quirk Tbh. I studied hard during my years in the Rockies because snow setups are basically range specific. Since I was addicted to powder skiing I spent a lot of time understanding exactly what to look for to get good snow in my specific county. I was really good at it. It's no different with my yard here. Unfortunately much less prolific. Haha Eta: what matt said. I'm a one trick pony in small region. It really is silly but fun. DC area is a tough as any in the nation for winter weather. Rain/snow line usually close, almost all big storms mix a bit but if too much they are not a big storm, ocean and mountains relatively close proximity. I state emphatically that the peolpe who have been named and a few that were not Are In Fact better at DC weather than most all mets who are out of the region. Local met has all that skill plus the local experience-can't top that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It is the NAM but it must be not be overlooked. It certainly does better at shorter range but could very well be giving an indication of something. Just about every storm has an outlier...some more noticeable than others. in this case it looks like there is a delay with the arctic air moving in. Not out of the question...but I hope it's wrong. Thanks for responding. It is good to hear from a Big Kahuna on this item. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM- 81hr sounding at KIAD...pretty lousy http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=NAM&STATIONID=KIAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 But you know people are going to panic It was time for a bad one. Friday good again and then Sat we watch for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The last two pages makes me want to gouge my eyes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yep. Quite often the front end WWA stuff transitions to a light sleety, drizzly mix with the SLP track closer to us (as per the NAM). So it's not the end of the world. What we get on the backside (if any) would be a bigger question. Either way, we would need that SLP to track farther south...certainly south of the 00Z NAM, and it would be even better to be a touch south of the 18Z runs. Need that upper level confluence to the north to become more w-e oriented and pressed down a little farther south. Certainly south of the 18Z GEFS ens mean, it's track isn't that different than the NAM. I note the ukmet also had a miller b look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It all about the High pressure baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM- 81hr sounding at KIAD...pretty lousy http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=NAM&STATIONID=KIAD ...and a little strange. I mean, between 60 hrs (12Z Sun) and 78 hours (06Z Mon), there isn't a HINT of a northerly low level component to the wind at all. With the degree of cold air to the north (snowpack across the NE) and in-situ CAD potential, I am surprised to see the NAM not reflecting any of this with the surface wind. Okay, I agree...bad run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It all about the High pressure baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Heck yeah. Let's just hope we aren't chasing 0.2" in Winchester at game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 ...and a little strange. I mean, between 60 hrs (12Z Sun) and 78 hours (06Z Mon), there isn't a HINT of a northerly low level component to the wind at all. With the degree of cold air to the north (snowpack across the NE) and in-situ CAD potential, I am surprised to see the NAM not reflecting any of this with the surface wind. Okay, I agree...bad run! It is weird. It's got that cold air lagging and the nose of the high is over the plains as opposed to an elongated blocking high like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS looks really good to me at 51, more amped than 18z but nothing like NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 1044 H entering N Plains at 57... looks better than the 00z NAM had at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NS vort definitely stronger than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NS vort definitely stronger than 18z. Yeah front-running heights are more amped up already at 24hrs. Could still work out, hopefully there is a more productive 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Problem with models is they can all show the wrong thing at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 1044 H entering N Plains at 57... looks better than the 00z NAM had at this juncture NAM-like at hour 60 with precip shield, but not sure that means much yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It is weird. It's got that cold air lagging and the nose of the high is over the plains as opposed to an elongated blocking high like the GFS. Yep. 'Tis only one run, but as Wes noted, it's disconcerting when it's close to the UK and GEFS mean with the SLP track. Side note...this used to be the OH Valley low a few days ago, with DC squarely in the warm sector. The past several model runs have gone 180 deg from that idea, but I'm just hoping they won't go back full circle toward that original scenario. We've seen that happen before, both good and bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hmmmm... SLP is in KY at 69... and the fight is on at 72.. confluence vs the SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks to me like it is going to end up farther to the north than the 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks to me like it is going to end up farther to the north than the 18Z. No doubt. HP to the n isn't as strong and heights in front are higher than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 haha.. no bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Its ugly at 75... SLP in WV.... 850 0c line at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Rain/snow line appears to be closing in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No doubt. HP to the n isn't as strong and heights in front are higher than 18z. I think we're fooling ourselves this year to think the results will be diff w/o true blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No doubt. HP to the n isn't as strong and heights in front are higher than 18z. That's all she wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Stronger vort and less push from the HP. Still will be a good front end though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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