Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 see you all in 45 for the varsity models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 But you know people are going to panic we're pretty experienced at this point....panicking over the 84 hour NAM is something we did in 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like the old miller b screw you track.that never happens here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 see you all in 45 for the varsity models No love for the 4k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Now the fringe worriers can worry about rain for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm not panicked at all. But there is no reason to say a north track is impossible. Not a run I want to see but gfs/euro exponentially more important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 see you all in 45 for the varsity models Yup..stepping out of this thread for 45. Pretty sure the panickers will put me on tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I made the mistake of looking in the NE forum and Ginxy pointed out that with the bliz, NAVGAM and JMA had it first and they were both further north with this system today right or wrong, I wish I never looked there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ugh...crap track and run on the NAM. Hope the GFS holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No love for the 4k? not at that range...it has negligible skill...this is merely to pass time...Nobody should be taking the NAM seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's not even worth discussing, honestly. NAM sure was right when it showed almost 40" of snow for NYC this past weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It was pretty obvious from early in the run that the HP wasnt pushing as hard as the earlier runs. I dont care what the model says from 45 on. I just hope its wrong about the HP early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm no expert, but I feel like what the NAM is showing would probably be the "northern extreme". Verbatim, it's all snow north of Baltimore (5-6"), unless there's a warm layer I don't know about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's not even worth discussing, honestly. NAM sure was right when it showed almost 40" of snow for NYC this past weekend. It isn't even a very good model in its wheelhouse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 not at that range...it has negligible skill...this is merely to pass time...Nobody should be taking the NAM seriously I'd at least compare pressure system placements to the prior Globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 we're pretty experienced at this point....panicking over the 84 hour NAM is something we did in 2006 The only somewhat discouraging thing is looking at how many GEFS ens members had that track.. The Euro ensemble also had some simiar tracks but overall was better than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'd at least compare pressure system placements to the prior Globals. If we did this stuff 2-3 yeas ago we'd be laughed off the board...I don't know when it became acceptable to view the NAM at 60+ hours as anything more than entertainment or to look at the details of the globals at day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Congrats New Jersey........on this Nam run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm not panicked at all. But there is no reason to say a north track is impossible. Not a run I want to see but gfs/euro exponentially more important No, not a reason to really panic at this point. It's disheartening all the same, and even though it's the NAM out at the end of its run, it's in line with those more northern GEFS ensemble members. So it's not totally out there really. We'll see what the globals say, hopefully they hold from what they had earlier. Don't like seeing that confluence get pushed back more. After 4 straight complete set of model runs that looked great (00Z through 18Z), it's hard to deny this is a kick in the head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wasn't there a superbowl storm last year that looked to target my area and ended up in NYC> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No, not a reason to really panic at this point. It's disheartening all the same, and even though it's the NAM out at the end of its run, it's in line with those more northern GEFS ensemble members. So it's not totally out there really. We'll see what the globals say, hopefully they hold from what they had earlier. Don't like seeing that confluence get pushed back more. After 4 straight complete set of model runs that looked great (00Z through 18Z), it's hard to deny this is a kick in the head. I deny it categorically....It means absolutely nothing...I must have been on vacation the day that the NAM started to matter at day 3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If we did this stuff 2-3 yeas ago we'd be laughed off the board...I don't know when it became acceptable to view the NAM at 60+ hours as anything more than entertainment or to look at the details of the globals at day 9 why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I deny it categorically....It means absolutely nothing...I must have been on vacation the day that the NAM started to matter at day 3... Perhaps true, but weren't there not so good changes earlier on in the run? At least a cautionary flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The only somewhat discouraging thing is looking at how many GEFS ens members had that track.. The Euro ensemble also had some simiar tracks but overall was better than last night. I'm not discouraged...certainly anything can happen, but the NAM is of no value to me at this range...To be blunt and perhaps impolitic It has a long and storied history of being a laughingstock toward the end of its run, and even sooner than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Perhaps true, but weren't there not so good changes earlier on in the run? At least a cautionary flag. you all can parse the NAM....I'm not interested...I'll stop ranting now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wasn't there a superbowl storm last year that looked to target my area and ended up in NYC> way less cold in front of that system. I was up in northern nj the day before and there was light rain. Once that started to amp it was inevitable it would come north. This is a different situation. Even with the nam track it would be a thump snow to dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 you all can parse the NAM....I'm not interested...I'll stop ranting now Fair enough, and I'm not really trying to parse it. Just throwing out the caution is all, but I think we all have been pretty cautious anyhow. Too easy around here to wait for the shoe to drop, so to speak. On a lighter note, in reference to you saying the NAM has a history of being a "laughingstock toward the end of its run". Recall last year, I believe with that Feb. 12-13 storm, the NAM at one time 78-84 hours out was developing this bomb right behind that system that would have been a ton of ice followed by a wash out rain storm?? Of course that disappeared right after that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ugh...crap track and run on the NAM. Hope the GFS holds. Folks around here generally say be Wary of the NAM outside of 24 hours. What is your opinion on this matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No, not a reason to really panic at this point. It's disheartening all the same, and even though it's the NAM out at the end of its run, it's in line with those more northern GEFS ensemble members. So it's not totally out there really. We'll see what the globals say, hopefully they hold from what they had earlier. Don't like seeing that confluence get pushed back more. After 4 straight complete set of model runs that looked great (00Z through 18Z), it's hard to deny this is a kick in the head. There's always a chance (heck likelihood if history has anything to say about it) that the NAM (and SREF for that matter) will shift farther south and colder. That's what they do within 48. I'd really be curious to see if the GFS can hold, and how the EC will trend. The thing with that current NAM slp track -- it's not only the warming aloft (potential mixing) to worry about, but oh that dreaded dry slot. Yes, we'll always have that front end thump -- but I'd rather it be closer to 4-6" vs. 2-4" or (gulp) 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There's always a chance (heck likelihood if history has anything to say about it) that the NAM (and SREF for that matter) will shift farther south and colder. That's what they do within 48. I'd really be curious to see if the GFS can hold, and how the EC will trend. The thing with that current NAM slp track -- it's not only the warming aloft (potential mixing) to worry about, but oh that dreaded dry slot. Yes, we'll always have that front end thump -- but I'd rather it be closer to 4-6" vs. 2-4" or (gulp) 1-2". Id rather have the dry slot then the rain. Front end thumps to dry slot can work out decent. 3-5 to dry slot is not the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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