nj2va Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z GEFS members look pretty good, there are 1 or 2 rain solutions in there as well Interesting. I'd put the chances of a rain solution, as of now, pretty far down the list of possibilities. That high is really doing its thing it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Decent model consensus for 4-8/6-10". If we can hold on to these good solutions, maybe a Winter Storm Watch for everyone in tomorrow's afternoon package. Can't see this missing south. Better chance of going toward a 0z GGEM solution IMO. But we are almost a lock for a plowable snow. I also feel like we could trend toward starting as a brief Light Rain/Mix Sunday Afternoon. Tuesday Morning is going to be a PITA if I have classes with these possible sub-zero temperatures. I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Decent model consensus for 4-8/6-10". If we can hold on to these good solutions, maybe a Winter Storm Watch for everyone in tomorrow's afternoon package. Can't see this missing south. Better chance of going toward a 0z GGEM solution IMO. But we are almost a lock for a plowable snow. I also feel like we could trend toward starting as a brief Light Rain/Mix Sunday Afternoon. Tuesday Morning is going to be a PITA if I have classes with these possible sub-zero temperatures. I'm in I think a WSW would be posted on Saturday, not tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think a WSW would be posted on Saturday, not tomorrow. Maybe tomorrow evening... since it will be 48 hours away from the start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I dub myself thee king of this thread since I started it. Rule #1: Storm-related banter is allowed (non-storm banter can be taken to one of three banter threads we currently have!) Rule #2: Don't be uptight and keep the worrying to a minimum. Rule #3: Always extrapolate the NAM and SREFs. Well I am not allowed to start a thread but I am the one that said we needed one 15 mins before you created it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Maybe tomorrow evening... since it will be 48 hours away from the start time. I thought it was 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 I thought it was 36 hours. Feels good to have to brush up on WSW criteria again: Winter Storm Watch A Winter Storm Watch is issued when there is the potential for significant and hazardous winter weather within 48 hours. It does not mean that significant and hazardous winter weather will occur...it only means it is possible. Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of: 1) 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period AND/OR 2) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines. AND/OR 3) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Watch for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thanks. For some reason I had 36 hours in my head lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 From Twisterdata sounding extrapolations, I would say there has been about 2 Celsius degrees change at the surface from 0Z last night to 18Z this evening. That could have significant implications if that continues. I do not think that this is a lock just yet based on what has happened with models over the last few years, but I do think we're in a good position for now. Eyeballing...0Z=-9C, 6Z=-8C, 12Z=-8.5C, 18Z=-7C Here is the 18Z run sounding: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=723&sounding.y=306&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=18&fhour=90¶meter=PWATIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y eta: A good method to accurately compare similar maps is to use the page up and page down buttons instead of scrolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's about as straightforward and safe a forecast as we get around here. Only reason there's not a stream of trigger pullers is its stil like 70 hours out. I think the 70 hours adds uncertainty to the forecast even if the models do show 6-8" and are in decent agreement. The key is how that uncertainty is added to the forecast which I guess is very subjective and is what makes each forecast unique. I would probably use wording like "accumulating snow" instead of amounts at this point but if one is confident enough then go with numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Could be noise. Could be a couple members skewing the mean. Could mean nothing. But 18z gefs mean is further nw than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It looks like snow is possible Sunday and Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It looks like the models are pretty much in agreement that we score in the 4-10" range. What is left to be determined and something to watch in future runs, is whether the low cuts off somewhere around SE VA or the VA Capes. I could see a scenario where the low cuts off bombs over the VA capes and drifts NNE for a bit before exiting. That could potentially add to the currently modeled totals. Probably a low probability scenario, but something I wouldn't dismiss at this lead yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think the 70 hours adds uncertainty to the forecast even if the models do show 6-8" and are in decent agreement. The key is how that uncertainty is added to the forecast which I guess is very subjective and is what makes each forecast unique. I would probably use wording like "accumulating snow" instead of amounts at this point but if one is confident enough then go with numbers.It's a good forecast based on what we know. I don't have enough experience with block snow events here maybe. In 09/10 the good ones generally were fairly apparent at this range and I know blocking usually decreases variability run to run. I can't really say for sure what the models will look like tomorrow evening or midday Saturday though. I think they will remain good to some degree but it wouldn't be a shocker if they ended up not as good as now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Could be noise. Could be a couple members skewing the mean. Could mean nothing. But 18z gefs mean is further nw than 12z. <snip> Based off hr 84 -- http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f84.html#There are three members that are off to the NW; one in SW PA, one in S PA, and one in S OH and two nearby just south of us. So I am guessing thats the reason for the slight jog to the NW on the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There are two members that are off to the NW, one in SW PA actually... so I am guessing thats the reason for the slight jog to the NW on the mean More than that I'd say. At 84hr, 2 have lows over PIttsburgh, 1 has a low over Cincinatti and 2 more are nearly overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 More than that I'd say. At 84hr, 2 have lows over PIttsburgh, 1 has a low over Cincinatti and 2 more are nearly overhead. I was editing my post as you posted Def interesting to see the 3 off to the NW in PA and OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I was editing my post as you posted Def interesting to see the 3 off to the NW in PA and OH Out of curiosity, how does that compare to the 12Z members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You're right... I value his forecasts and should resist criticizing the one small part of it that I thought looked a little premature when he put a good amount of time and effort into the rest of the post. relax dude..it isn't a big deal...I just thought the "bullish" comment was a bit misguided, since all I did was convey a general idea based on guidance, with all the necessary caveats...no worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Whenever I comment in a thread there seems to be a lot of snowfall. Therefore I comment just once. I hope my track record continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z GFS is 0.83" at DCA....0.32" falls between 1am and 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 LR SREFs (the 21z suite) MSLP placement looks pretty nice... right through S VA it would appear as the run ends 24hr QPF through hr 87 appears to be a small circle of 0.5 over DCA... but 0.25+ for all of LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 LR SREFs (the 21z suite) MSLP placement looks pretty nice... right through S VA it would appear as the run ends 24hr QPF through hr 87 appears to be a small circle of 0.5 over DCA... but 0.25+ for all of LWX CWA we definitely flirt with mixing on this run..of course it is the 87 hour SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 we definitely flirt with mixing on this run..of course it is the 87 hour SREF we definitely flirt with mixing on this run..of course it is the 87 hour SREF Yeah I didn't really focus on that... just looked at QPF and SLP and stopped looking after that at the SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 we definitely flirt with mixing on this run..of course it is the 87 hour SREF Yeah, 87 hour SREF and all, but that 850mb zero line is cutting it really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 we definitely flirt with mixing on this run..of course it is the 87 hour SREF Yeah 850 gets real close to DC at the end of the run - though srefs at 87 so....yeah. I tend to ignore SREF temps and instead look at mslp and qpf...moreso from a 'trend' standpoint I guess. But of course, I'm putting off getting some work done so I'm looking at the SREF's temp profile instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Could be noise. Could be a couple members skewing the mean. Could mean nothing. But 18z gefs mean is further nw than 12z. It wouldn't shock me in the least if I mix, which obviously would cut down on accumulations, but shouldn't be some huge deal...it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There was a cluster of euro members with slp in n wva and 18z gefs has it as well. It's something to be wary of. Navgem and jma also take the low from wv to overhead. Yes, those aren't models we typically take into consideration but if something is going to go wrong, a nw track would be problem from what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There was a cluster of euro members with slp in n wva and 18z gefs has it as well. It's something to be wary of. Navgem and jma also take the low from wv to overhead. Yes, those aren't models we typically take into consideration but if something is going to go wrong, a nw track would be problem from what I'm seeing. we'd still get a snowstorm with that track...not all snow, but we'd get accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 we definitely flirt with mixing on this run..of course it is the 87 hour SREF Kind of surprising as the flow looked slightly less amped. I can barely make heads or tails of those maps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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