Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 True, there's a lot of agreement but it's still 3 days away... for a public audience I would've gone with 3-6/4-8 with some upside potential, or said something more vague like "significant accumulation possible". learn to read... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 How much can I possibly hedge?You need a forecast matrix with every possible scenario for good communication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 learn to read... I can read fine, and so can anyone here... but the general public only understands this stuff at the 8th grade level on average. I guess I'm just wary of specific amounts being mentioned 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I can read fine, and so can anyone here... but the general public only understands this stuff at the 8th grade level on average. Why would I lie and say the guidance is suggesting 3-6"? I am one of the most conservative (and accurate) snow forecasters there is for DC...But thanks for your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Oh Fozz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Matt is if anything too conservative sometimes (but usually dead-on). I think his readers trust his judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Why would I lie and say the guidance is suggesting 3-6"? I am one of the most conservative (and accurate) snow forecasters there is for DC...But thanks for your input. Fozz is wise beyond his years. You'd do well to take your medicine and move along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Fozz is wise beyond his years. You'd do well to take your medicine and move along. I know that from meeting and hanging out with him like 8 times...but thanks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I know that from meeting and hanging out with him like 8 times...but thanks.. He was joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Fuzz being difficult. Surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not to be rude, but didn't we make a banter thread for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not to be rude, but didn't we make a banter thread for this event? You should go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Models should be able to handle this simple setup without major convulsions. Looks pretty straightforward. If anything I might be a bit concerned with it being suppressed a bit. Richmond is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not to be rude, but didn't we make a banter thread for this event?Yes but not for general banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 In case anyone wanted to know, the 18z DGEX is a bombdaddy monster crush job Temps in the teens with 1 in + QPF #NAMExtrapolating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 In case anyone wanted to know, the 18z DGEX is a bombdaddy monster crush job #NAMExtrapolating LOL!! They still run that model? I haven't heard much of anything about it in some time. Probably for good reason! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Fuzz being difficult. Surprise You're right... I value his forecasts and should resist criticizing the one small part of it that I thought looked a little premature when he put a good amount of time and effort into the rest of the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 How much can I possibly hedge? 5pm Update - *Your Super Bowl Plans could be affected* (Remember we are still 72 hours out. Lots can change) There is some model consensus developing regarding the Sunday/Monday event. Below is a very general idea for DC. Details will change. But this is what the guidance is suggesting. Do not rely on the timeline right now. It is loose. I will update later tonight before I go to bed, and then again tomorrow afternoon. You could tell them that this is a low confidence forecast but that you will be able to issue a high confidence one about an hour before kickoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 I dub myself thee king of this thread since I started it. Rule #1: Storm-related banter is allowed (non-storm banter can be taken to one of three banter threads we currently have!) Rule #2: Don't be uptight and keep the worrying to a minimum. Rule #3: Always extrapolate the NAM and SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Man those VVs look sweet around West Virginia....2nd and 5 from the 45 yard line down 6 Please stop using this analogy. 2 weeks ago the Ravens has 2nd and 5 from the 36 down by 4 with under 2 minutes to play. Do I need to remind you about the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Please stop using this analogy. 2 weeks ago the Ravens has 2nd and 5 from the 36 down by 4 with under 2 minutes to play. Do I need to remind you about the results. No you did it. I just burst out crying. Hopefully the GFS and Euro are brighter than Joe Flacco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Zwyts has a good forecast and timeline. Everything I looked at today suggests 6-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 This afternoon/evening's model runs recap for DC: 18z GFS: ~0.8" 18z NAM: 0.3" by 84h (more to come obviously) 12z Euro: ~0.8" 12z GGEM: ~0.65" 12z GFS: ~0.7-0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Zwyts has a good forecast and timeline. Everything I looked at today suggests 6-10 inches. It is a pretty solid forecast for up around DC......around here (Spotsy) I'd go closer to 2-5, maybe a bit more......nervous about the cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The one thing I'd like to see in terms of model trends is a little cooler 850-700 mb profile. I don't have access to the soundings, but I do see in the 18Z GFS that 0°C 850 line lifts up across the lower Eastern Shore and possibly clips far southern MD by 12Z Mon. From a climo standpoint, at least for the best dendrites/rates, we want to be closer to -3° to -6°C at 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 for those wanting the GFS time periods broken down into 3 hour intervals, go to this link and just change the station from BWI at the end of the url to your station of choice please note that there is a message at the top of the link that says they are going to a pay site in FEB; too bad as I've been using this for years http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The GGEM control is the southern-most member of the Canadian ensemble. Just some more evidence that the GGEM is coming north. Some good hits for DC in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 18z GEFS members look pretty good, there are 1 or 2 rain solutions in there as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Agreed. We still have a long way to go but I'm impressed by the consensus and continuity of the models. I keep expecting significant changes and they keep doubling down. Maybe we are getting close enough to feel really confident on track at least. Big difference is the presence of the arctic blocking high. It's been absent from most of the other storms this year. As long as the high stays in place and the track south we should be good. Now if we can get the trough to go negative tilt that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's about as straightforward and safe a forecast as we get around here. Only reason there's not a stream of trigger pullers is its stil like 70 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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