Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Solid 6-10" for almost everyone...DC proper eyeballing is probably about 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Widespread 6-10. Excellent stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Man. We get pummeled pretty hard all day Monday. It's not as juicy as the 12Z run though. Not really? It does mostly miss NYC and Bos tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Remarkably consistent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Actually not that quick of an event and I think we need to watch what comes behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Comparing to 12z, the differences are mostly noise. Basically the same run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I am not worried about "jinxing" it. Simply put, based on climo/pattern/models, our margin of error is enormous. And we should have goalposts by tomorrow night anyway. Low to Pittsburgh? fine...we get front thumped good. GFS/EURO track? we get clobbered. Even if it is north of there, and we mix some, it is still a big hit. GGEM track (lol)...ATL - MYR, and we still get 6". 0z Euro weak wave? We still get 4". We're vested for 2-4". And we will probably get more. I do not think there is much error. This is the 2nd best track for DC as far as sizable snow. Low from Tn/KY border, sw VA, off Va capes. We don't get to stay into as long as something moving ne from the se but there are not the mechanics of phasing and the like to screw things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Solid 6-10" for almost everyone...DC proper eyeballing is probably about 8" Widespread 6-10. Excellent stuff. Great to see consistency with earlier. Hope it's narrowing down to this general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not really? It does mostly miss NYC and Bos tho. Yeah I guess it's really over by the evening rush. Great run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Basically, light snow moves in mid to late afternoon...the big main event is like 8pm - 8am...and then light snow until mid morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah I guess it's really over by the evening rush. Great run though. quite a bit before that.. but not important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Basically, light snow moves in mid to late afternoon...the big main event is like 8pm - 8am...and then light snow until mid morning. Enough to wreak havoc for the day Monday even if it's pretty much over by mid-morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Comparing to 12z, the differences are mostly noise. Basically the same run Twins. 36 hr total by Mon 21z. 12z run on top, 18z on the bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVALink Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Been following this site for a few years now, just finally decided to register after unfollowing WxRisk (DT) on Facebook! Anyways, it seems that being in Chesterfield County (just West of Richmond,Va) we won't be enjoying the snow as much as the NOVA area. Any hope? -RVALink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Seems like with each run on the GFS, the bigger snow totals are coming down slightly more south from PA to the DC Metro, am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 4-5" between 1am and 7am. Cough, OPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 4-5" between 1am and 7am. Cough, OPM. Definitely no work Monday if the Euro and new Euro are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow 5pm Update - *Your Super Bowl Plans could be affected* (Remember we are still 72 hours out. Lots can change)There is some model consensus developing regarding the Sunday/Monday event. Below is a very general idea for DC. Details will change. But this is what the guidance is suggesting. Do not rely on the timeline right now. It is loose. I will update later tonight before I go to bed, and then again tomorrow afternoon.1pm - 4pm - light snow overspreads DC - Temps in the low to mid 30s.4pm - 8pm. Light snow accumulates. Temps around 328pm - 8am - Moderate to occasionally Heavy snow. Temps around 30 falling into the lower 20s by morning. 8am - noon - Snow tapers off to light snow/flurries. Temp around 20.Total accumulation: 6-8"Brutally cold Monday night and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Total accumulation: 6-8" Bullish... but good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Bullish... but good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Definitely no work Monday if the Euro and new Euro are right. Darn. I need to be at Dulles for a 9AM flight to the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Or in line with guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Bullish... but good luck! Huh? There's very good model agreement right now from the op and ensembles for a 6"+ storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonelaureliano1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Brontostormus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Models should be able to handle this simple setup without major convulsions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Huh? There's very good model agreement right now from the op and ensembles for a 6"+ storm. 6-8 sounds like a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not really bullish but from here no one on tv etc would make that call. Imagine models are pretty close but the freshness of a burn still lingers even if a diff scenario., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Comparing to 12z, the differences are mostly noise. Basically the same run Exactly, if the SV snow algorithms give me that much snow on the Saturday runs, I'll be pretty excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Or in line with guidance. Huh? There's very good model agreement right now from the op and ensembles for a 6"+ storm. True, there's a lot of agreement but it's still 3 days away... for a public audience I would've gone with 3-6/4-8 with some upside potential, or said something more vague like "significant accumulation possible". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not really bullish but from here no one on tv etc would make that call. Imagine models are pretty close but the freshness of a burn still lingers even if a diff scenario., How much can I possibly hedge? 5pm Update - *Your Super Bowl Plans could be affected* (Remember we are still 72 hours out. Lots can change) There is some model consensus developing regarding the Sunday/Monday event. Below is a very general idea for DC. Details will change. But this is what the guidance is suggesting. Do not rely on the timeline right now. It is loose. I will update later tonight before I go to bed, and then again tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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