Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It really has had that feel. There are some important pieces embedded above us that are definitely going to be there. Being inside of 4 days with close agreement is awesome. Looking fairly decent for a shot at widespread wsw criteria being met. And then having serious cold behind it to keep it around for more than a day or 2. Agreed (with you and Zwyts). I really like how things have more or less converged thus far, and think an area-wide warning criteria is a decent bet right now, and hopefully a certainty in the upcoming days. Oh, and I'll echo what others said, that your idea of keeping banter to as much a minimum as possible starting 00Z tonight is probably a good idea. Hard to avoid at least some, especially late at night, but still. I'm sure if this is still looking very good later, the mods will go into storm mode anyhow. Would be nice to avoid as many "freak out" comments as possible, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I've followed along all day and I really like the effort on this thread. Very good posts, meteorologically sound and professional. I appreciate you guys/gals. Thanks for all the maps and data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If the NAM comes in good tonight... I will drink until the euro comes out. I might have to make another measuring stick for this event. Man, unless you're off tomorrow, you're in for a rough day at work if you down that bottle tonight!! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I've followed along all day and I really like the effort on this thread. Very good posts, meteorologically sound and professional. I appreciate you guys/gals. Thanks for all the maps and data. That's the love in the MA when the models look good. If the 18Z GFS barfs and looks bad we will revert to nastiness and dark humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 That's the love in the MA when the models look good. If the 18Z GFS barfs and looks bad we will revert to nastiness and dark humor. I think 10-12"+ is probably too ambitious with the speed of the event...We have a pretty big MOE for 3-4" but not for 9-10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 That's the love in the MA when the models look good. If the 18Z GFS barfs and looks bad we will revert to nastiness and dark humor. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think 10-12"+ is probably too ambitious with the speed of the event...We have a pretty big MOE for 3-4" but not for 9-10"+ Any thoughts on why it so progressive with a 50/50 and block in place? Seems like it would slow down some to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think 10-12"+ is probably too ambitious with the speed of the event...We have a pretty big MOE for 3-4" but not for 9-10"+ yeah i don't think it's got that potential really.. more like a 4-8/5-10 type thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 yeah i don't think it's got that potential really.. more like a 4-8/5-10 type thing I think from Baltimore north it does, albeit not a great chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Any thoughts on why it so progressive with a 50/50 and block in place? Seems like it would slow down some to me. It's no so much that it's moving fast. It actually moves kinda slow. It's just not a big storm in general. SLP is >1k as it passed. 12" storms are reserved for the big dogs most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 yeah i don't think it's got that potential really.. more like a 4-8/5-10 type thing Reasonable expectation...that's on the lines of the St. Patty's Day event this past March, maybe we'll do a tad better if we're lucky. But it would be colder for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think from Baltimore north it does, albeit not a great chance. well 5-10 could be 6-12 I guess. but i'd be cautious of thinking .75-1"+ qpf is likely with its speed and strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Things are going to get crazy in here and a lot of guests and people who don't post are going to rely on this thread for info with each model suite. I vote starting with the 0z suite that we keep banter in this thread to a minimum or zero. Ok, I'll cast the dissenting vote. From here on in this thread will turn into model pbp. Anyone wanting info can easily find that without coming here. The only valuable info will be euro pbp. I see no harm in a little off the cuff remarks here and there. If we can't have a little fun tracking a good event, when can we. Sometimes I think we might take ourselves a bit too seriously around here. Our commentary, regardless of its meteorological worth, will have no bearing on what the storm actually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's no so much that it's moving fast. It actually moves kinda slow. It's just not a big storm in general. SLP is >1k as it passed. 12" storms are reserved for the big dogs most of the time. Gotcha. thanks for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 well 5-10 could be 6-12 I guess. but i'd be cautious of thinking .75-1"+ qpf is likely with its speed and strength. Agreed, but if the 1002 low deepens just a bit more we can get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's no so much that it's moving fast. It actually moves kinda slow. It's just not a big storm in general. SLP is >1k as it passed. 12" storms are reserved for the big dogs most of the time. we see green for a long while but most of it falls in like 8-12 hours. that's pretty speedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 snow covering most of DC metro by 21z...DCA temp 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think 10-12"+ is probably too ambitious with the speed of the event...We have a pretty big MOE for 3-4" but not for 9-10"+ I like the chances for a quick accumulating thump if the temps are in our favor (mid to upper 20s). i think we had a storm in early feb 03 that produced like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I"m old enough to remember Psuhoffman being worried about a north trend in 2010. I'm the crazy paranoid rob Lowe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Good job on cutting down the banter lol. #ratios Thanks, but that starts for 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 the good stuff starts in earnest around 7-8pm...getting raked by 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Thanks, but that starts for 0z aye aye bossman eta: :eyeroll: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 by 12z...0.5 - 0.6 has fallen..all snow...good run...temp 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looks to be on par with its earlier run through 84....maybe a tad slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 the good stuff starts in earnest around 7-8pm...getting raked by 10 Pushing 6-7 in DC by 09z MON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 aye aye bossman eta: :eyeroll: No problem plebe. You know you wanna come back in black Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Vort was just a little less amped but it didn't matter. Timing a little slower. Outcome the same. Lasered today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 beautiful run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Man. We get pummeled pretty hard all day Monday. It's not as juicy as the 12Z run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Is that a deform band causing the strip of heavier precip on the western edge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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