87storms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 looks like track is at least somewhat locking in...i guess we need to care more about the strength and whether it sizzles/fizzles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Things are going to get crazy in here and a lot of guests and people who don't post are going to rely on this thread for info with each model suite. I vote starting with the 0z suite that we keep banter in this thread to a minimum or zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Things are going to get crazy in here and a lot of guests and people who don't post are going to rely on this thread for info with each model suite. I vote starting with the 0z suite that we keep banter in this thread to a minimum or zero. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Man those VVs look sweet around West Virginia....2nd and 5 from the 45 yard line down 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Things are going to get crazy in here and a lot of guests and people who don't post are going to rely on this thread for info with each model suite. I vote starting with the 0z suite that we keep banter in this thread to a minimum or zero. Strongly agree... starting with the 21z SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Things are going to get crazy in here and a lot of guests and people who don't post are going to rely on this thread for info with each model suite. I vote starting with the 0z suite that we keep banter in this thread to a minimum or zero. Agree totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 DGEX Sadly, the 06z DGEX looks far more realistic for the Tuesday morning lows than the Euro or GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I believe EuroWX uses a 10:1 ratio. So if the model says you'd get the equivalent of 1" of rain, it will convert that to 10" of snow. I don't know what the Evan Kuchera algorithm is, but it probably takes into account factors like the ones HM discusses above. InstantWeatherMaps.com uses that algorithm as well. (http://www.instantweathermaps.com/faq.php)Thanks for the reply. I seem to remember DT explaining that whereas WxBell counts all frozen as snow (which causes the totals to be inflated), the Kuchera method discounts anything but actual snowfall accumulation, thereby giving a more realistic output. Trends are looking great today! Wooooooooooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 While the 18Z NAM didn't seem as amped as 12z, It is trying to align the streams/NRG better which we can we can see reflected on the surface maps by the better precip output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Things are going to get crazy in here and a lot of guests and people who don't post are going to rely on this thread for info with each model suite. I vote starting with the 0z suite that we keep banter in this thread to a minimum or zero. Like it Bob and agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Things are going to get crazy in here and a lot of guests and people who don't post are going to rely on this thread for info with each model suite. I vote starting with the 0z suite that we keep banter in this thread to a minimum or zero. Don't worry...orders gonna be give Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Don't worry...orders gonna be give You go boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Don't worry...orders gonna be give Of course late night drunk euro banter is unavoidable. It's been a while since we had a "fun" night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Things are going to get crazy in here and a lot of guests and people who don't post are going to rely on this thread for info with each model suite. I vote starting with the 0z suite that we keep banter in this thread to a minimum or zero. Agreed...and I would also like to suggest deferring the model analysis to the "first stringers" during model runs - you of course can be captain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I am not worried about "jinxing" it. Simply put, based on climo/pattern/models, our margin of error is enormous. And we should have goalposts by tomorrow night anyway. Low to Pittsburgh? fine...we get front thumped good. GFS/EURO track? we get clobbered. Even if it is north of there, and we mix some, it is still a big hit. GGEM track (lol)...ATL - MYR, and we still get 6". 0z Euro weak wave? We still get 4". We're vested for 2-4". And we will probably get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I am not worried about "jinxing" it. Simply put, based on climo/pattern/models, our margin of error is enormous. And we should have goalposts by tomorrow night anyway. Low to Pittsburgh? fine...we get front thumped good. GFS/EURO track? we get clobbered. Even if it is north of there, and we mix some, it is still a big hit. GGEM track (lol)...ATL - MYR, and we still get 6". 0z Euro weak wave? We still get 4". We're vested for 2-4". And we will probably get more. Love your confidence. Feeling good with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ought to be a fun night Sunday, between the euphoria of the board and all the alcohol consumed during the day/evening. lol. we might need to invent a cyber drinking game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I am not worried about "jinxing" it. Simply put, based on climo/pattern/models, our margin of error is enormous. And we should have goalposts by tomorrow night anyway. Low to Pittsburgh? fine...we get front thumped good. GFS/EURO track? we get clobbered. Even if it is north of there, and we mix some, it is still a big hit. GGEM track (lol)...ATL - MYR, and we still get 6". 0z Euro weak wave? We still get 4". We're vested for 2-4". And we will probably get more. It really has had that feel. There are some important pieces embedded above us that are definitely going to be there. Being inside of 4 days with close agreement is awesome. Looking fairly decent for a shot at widespread wsw criteria being met. And then having serious cold behind it to keep it around for more than a day or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonelaureliano1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ought to be a fun night Sunday, between the euphoria of the board and all the alcohol consumed during the day/evening. lol. we might need to invent a cyber drinking game. Drink every time someone says dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Of course late night drunk euro banter is unavoidable. It's been a while since we had a "fun" night. If the NAM comes in good tonight... I will drink until the euro comes out. I might have to make another measuring stick for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Drink every time someone says dry slot. Or "back edge" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Drinking is non negotiable with an event like this. I will try to keep myself under control though. I know I can get long winded during the nice model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I just like snow as an excuse to drink. Reality being I don't need snow's help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Good job on cutting down the banter lol. #ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Fairfax Public Schools just closed. Actually, this is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Can't wait until I wake up on Monday morning to an inch of slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 if you run a loop of the 500mb maps off the NAM 18Z run, I can easily see the u/l low passing underneath of us and closing off at the coast around ORF I mean it really looks like that's where it wants to go....crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Can't wait until I wake up on Monday morning to an inch of slush. not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 not happening I was kidding. I know this looks really good. Seems like we're looking at a base 3-6" type of event. Hoping for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Took it upon myself to create a banter thread for this specific threat: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45556-feb-1st2nd-threat-banter-thread/ If it annoys me seeing banter in this thread, I can only imagine what it feels like for those who actually know what they're talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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