kurtstack Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It is a bit premature to totally write off a further N track. The features that will determine that need to get in position. We could still see some wild azz solutions. The memory of last weeks debacle is fresh in my mind This is the one time where we don't have the high to our north sliding out to sea. I don't foresee any north trend, maybe an expansion of the precip shield, but I expect the track is probably pretty locked in at this point. Famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 JMA jumped on this first btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Also there's no way Baltimore is getting a low of -10. The coldest ever recorded at BWI is -7 on multiple occasions. I think we were just having the discussion about not predicting a record with regards to NY/Bos snowfalls... Same would be true for temps (except perhaps summer highs in these parts... just sayin'). That said, if GFS and Euro keep tracking this Tuesday morning overnight tonight, perhaps it's worthy of its own temp thread. I would imagine a morning low even around zero would have an impact on schools and such like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Aside from our brief -NAO window, I'm also encouraged to see the AO outlook went from an apparent hideous + lock to ensembles being all over the place. Definitely feeling good about a 3-6/4-8" event for most of the area, followed by bitter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I keep seeing the 2/6/10 storm mentioned in regard to this storm. Is there any chance of this blowing up and turning into that or no? Doesn't seem to be moving far enough north or slowing down enough off the coast for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I keep seeing the 2/6/10 storm mentioned in regard to this storm. Is there any chance of this blowing up and turning into that or no? Doesn't seem to be moving far enough north or slowing down enough off the coast for that to happen. There was talk about 1/30/10 I believe. Not direct relation to 2/6/10. This won't be 2/6/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On those Euro snow maps, the 6" line is 200 miles to my north, and 100 miles to my south. I know which way I would like to see it trend, if it's gonna shift. Don't want any warm air working up from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think we were just having the discussion about not predicting a record with regards to NY/Bos snowfalls... Same would be true for temps (except perhaps summer highs in these parts... just sayin'). That said, if GFS and Euro keep tracking this Tuesday morning overnight tonight, perhaps it's worthy of its own temp thread. I would imagine a morning low even around zero would have an impact on schools and such like... Interesting that the GFS and Euro have shown those very cold temps before for that time, or at least back and forth on the intensity of it. Something to watch, after we hopefully pin down a good snow event! A temperature thread? Have we had one of those before (maybe for chasing 100s a couple of summers ago)? Might be a first! But if it's still looking that extreme, would be worthwhile I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 that storm isn't remembered so fondly everywhere. Heavy bands stalled just to my south. Only got 1-2" up here. South definitely worries me more then amped. Throw an amped up qpf bomb up into a cold air mass with a -nao and let's see how that works. I've seen suppressed crap not work out plenty. I'm mecs hunting here. No more 1-3" crap. that was some cutoff... I got 6.25" in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Taking ratios into account, that Euro run looks like 12+" IMBY. But I suspect the Euro is probably too far north, and the GGEM too far south. GFS looks like a reasonable compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Taking ratios into account, that Euro run looks like 12+" IMBY. But I suspect the Euro is probably too far north, and the GGEM too far south. GFS looks like a reasonable compromise. I think those Eurowx maps account for ratios, so ~12" seems about right for our area. Nice high-end scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not including clippers, when was the last storm that got snow to CHI, DET and then DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think those Eurowx maps account for ratios, so ~12" seems about right for our area. Nice high-end scenario. From what i have heard they are 10:1 maps. But it makes more sense what you are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think those Eurowx maps account for ratios, so ~12" seems about right for our area. Nice high-end scenario. Earlier clskinsfan said they were 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 JMA jumped on this first btw Something, something, blind squirrel.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 As long as the cities jackpot I would be happy to shut down work for a day. I can deal with the northern screw zone personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 15Z SREFs have 0.10+ QPF into the region by hr 87 MSLP map looks good at 87 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'd take the 15z SREFs in a heartbeat. Each run that comes out I feel like I'm getting closer to the end zone. 1st and 10 from the 50 yard line down 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'd take the 15z SREFs in a heartbeat. Each run that comes out I feel like I'm getting closer to the end zone. 1st and 10 from the 50 yard line down 6. Yeah, slowly but surely closer, let's hope the good model runs continue and hone in for us. Would be nice to get 1st and goal at the 1 and pound in the score for the "W". Of course, being from Cleveland, I cannot help but remember Earnest Byner's fumble at the goal line vs. Denver in the AFC championship back in 1988. His momentum actually carried him into the end zone, then I heard the dreaded "Fumble!...Denver recovers!" That still hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 From what i have heard they are 10:1 maps. But it makes more sense what you are saying. Earlier clskinsfan said they were 10:1. I doubt it, because the weatherbell maps (which we all know are 10:1) show our area getting about 9", while the Eurowx maps give us 11.5. It would make sense if Eurowx accounted for ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Re: the EuroWx map snow ratios... DT posted something saying that those maps use the 'Evan Kuchera algorithm'. Can someone explain how that differs from, say, WxBell ratios? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If we screw this up...winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If we screw this up...winter is over Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah, slowly but surely closer, let's hope the good model runs continue and hone in for us. Would be nice to get 1st and goal at the 1 and pound in the score for the "W". Of course, being from Cleveland, I cannot help but remember Earnest Byner's fumble at the goal line vs. Denver in the AFC championship back in 1988. His momentum actually carried him into the end zone, then I heard the dreaded "Fumble!...Denver recovers!" That still hurts. Dick Enberg on the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 As I stated for days, the cold high will not give it up. Another good element is that this not a real intense storm, 29.8 storm along va coastline will not be able to get the warm air in while supplying moderate moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 DCA is 50 miles north from getting nothing. And last week at this time all the models had areas to the north gettting nothing. Wouldn't this be a concern? It would be but the cold high pressure will push down enough to prevent a bad north move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 A comment on ratios: yes, the airy/branchy delicate nature of dendrites needs a cold surface to land on/drop through cold boundary layer without the added stress of a strong wind. However, the wind/temperature at the ground/just above is not as important as cloud mircrophysics. If you do not provide a sounding/profile of RH, OMEGA and temperature while commenting on ratios, then you are providing bad information. Just being cold is not good enough. And on the flip-side, many snow busts happen in warm air advection regimes because people do not diagnose dendritic growth correctly. "The model only had 0.1 but I ended up with 6 inches of snow" is a common quote you'll read on these days. So if your pavements are below freezing, your surface T is 30 and you are properly spewing out dendrites, the surface temp of "only 30" won't matter. It will pile quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 As I stated for days, the cold high will not give it up. Another good element is that this not a real intense storm, 29.8 storm along va coastline will not be able to get the warm air in while supplying moderate moisture. And none of that GL low nonsense. I think cutter is likley off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro ensemble mean looks good.. at least .5ish for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro ens mslp track is perfect. KY-SWVA-off the coast at va beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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