snowfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You guys are fine. I am trading places with psuhoffman on the Euro run. Euro is close fringe call for me and leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Heaviest precipitation is definitely NORTH of the GFS. GFS had .75 reaching York and S NJ. Euro is significantly north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 DCA is 50 miles north from getting nothing. And last week at this time all the models had areas to the north gettting nothing. Wouldn't this be a concern? That's definitely something to consider this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Based on those snow maps looks like some mixing issues Dover south over this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I don't want to hear any more south talk until the gfs or euro shows it. If goes south, you certainly are going to hear about it. That being said, the trends this year have been for these events to end up south of where they are modeled. Blending the 3 models at this time would be pretty much a gfs average, right? I think most would be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I mean, I guess it's possible to get below 0F, but -10F? I don't know... EDIT: Actually, it's -11F The all time record low temp for Baltimore is -7 so -10 is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 IMO- this may be as far north as the euro goes. It's right at the medium lead extra amp stage. My guess is a modest south trend from here. Could be wrong though. Glad to hear that... although I'm in the bullseye, I wouldn't mind a slight south shift from what it shows verbatim. Plenty of heavy snow well into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If goes south, you certainly are going to hear about it. That being said, the trends this year have been for these events to end up south of where they are modeled. Blending the 3 models at this time would be pretty much a gfs average, right? I think most would be happy with that. Blend is good for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 There is that transient SE ridge from the departing HP over the region. I'd be cautious to assume this is the last jog north because it seems to nudge between the departing SE HP and the pressing cold front/1040 that presses in. I'd rather be in Harrisburg than Baltimore right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If goes south, you certainly are going to hear about it. That being said, the trends this year have been for these events to end up south of where they are modeled. Blending the 3 models at this time would be pretty much a gfs average, right? I think most would be happy with that. GFS and euro are very close considering 3-4 day leads. GEFS mean was perfect. If it's going to miss south it would have to trend that way in the next 12 to 24 hours. We have good agreement right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 IIRC didn't the Euro have some fairly extreme subzero predictions last winter that did not verify? Still, makes sense that favored spots could drop below zero with snowpack and calm winds behind the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm still worried about it going too far north. That snow cut off line is nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 IMO- this may be as far north as the euro goes. It's right at the medium lead extra amp stage. My guess is a modest south trend from here. Could be wrong though. I don't think it will change much. It's not like it's showing a 978 MB low like it does at times. I think it fairs better with these weaker waves, but you might be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Considering the Euro is almost always furthest north/west, I'll take the combination of the GFS/Euro/GEM and call it a day. I believe the cold high to the north is going to win the shoving match between it and the southeast ridge, judging by our lows Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS and euro are very close considering 3-4 day leads. GEFS mean was perfect. If it's going to miss south it would have to trend that way in the next 12 to 24 hours. We have good agreement right now. I'm pretty much in agreement with you. If it was going to be a big south move, I think one of the two, GPS or Euro would have shown it. I tried to tell Mitch, Eastcoast NPZ, and Clskinsfan that we'd be fine last night, but they made fun of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 People worrying too much about the cutoff. Unless you're down near Fredericksburg, I wouldn't worry too much right now. Like Bob said, I can't imagine this will go too much further north. This seems like a max output run from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 IIRC didn't the Euro have some fairly extreme subzero predictions last winter that did not verify? Still, makes sense that favored spots could drop below zero with snowpack and calm winds behind the storm Both models are showing extreme cold, if I'm reading correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah, even just a bit of a southern jog here would put virtually everyone quite firmly into the game. CHO has done about as well as EZF this season, so it'd be nice to get an area-wide win. If goes south, you certainly are going to hear about it. That being said, the trends this year have been for these events to end up south of where they are modeled. Blending the 3 models at this time would be pretty much a gfs average, right? I think most would be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 La la lock it up. At least we may get half your prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 People worrying too much about the cutoff. Unless you're down near Fredericksburg, I wouldn't worry too much right now. Like Bob said, I can't imagine this will go too much further north. This seems like a max output run from the Euro. And your reasoning is.........? Two days ago, most guidance was at best a front end thump from a jumping low. Then a few good solutions started showing up. This is still 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif Old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 People worrying too much about the cutoff. Unless you're down near Fredericksburg, I wouldn't worry too much right now. Like Bob said, I can't imagine this will go too much further north. This seems like a max output run from the Euro. It is a bit premature to totally write off a further N track. The features that will determine that need to get in position. We could still see some wild azz solutions. The memory of last weeks debacle is fresh in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It is a bit premature to totally write off a further N track. The features that will determine that need to get in position. We could still see some wild azz solutions. The memory of last weeks debacle is fresh in my mindMaybe. -NAO should help with the bumpiness. Still some time but we might just enter zero in mode from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I"m old enough to remember Psuhoffman being worried about a north trend in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 yes this is close but man we are still far away from flakes flying anywhere. temper those expectations as with many systems there will be last min changes I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The key, as others have said (going back to the other day), is that we don't have that lousy GL low that appeared before. There's a nice, big high building in there and pushing down from the upper Plains to the East. Give me a good overrunning event any day, just pour a ton of moisture into the cold air, we typically do well in those. Clearly details to work out but the trends are good obviously. I am a bit worried just how amped up that trough/low gets in terms of going too far north. Right now it's fine. Maybe it has "maxed out" in that regard, we'll see. But this set-up is a lot better than what we had going into this Monday's event. And, the models are in much better agreement compared to this Monday's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 No one is writing off north/south. So far it's nice to see the goalposts targeting this area as we get closer with good cross model agreement. Imo at this point snow is likely for the region with it being 1-3" on the low end and 8-12" on the high end. Edit: even if the low amps, I think it would turn into more of a swfe unless the high weakens or changes orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 yes this is close but man we are still far away from flakes flying anywhere. temper those expectations as with many systems there will be last min changes I'm sure. You and I are dangerously close to getting shutout on this run, so yeah I'm a little cautious. So much for a miss to the south... Also there's no way Baltimore is getting a low of -10. The coldest ever recorded at BWI is -7 on multiple occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Maybe. -NAO should help with the bumpiness. Still some time but we might just enter zero in mode from here. This isn't a thread the needle one like so many others. NAO is def in a better state to help unlike previously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 I feel pretty good having GGEM/GFS/Euro showing at least a moderate type event. We're within 90 hours now of the event and have the three major globals showing somewhat similar scenarios. Sure, a lot can change but I think we're in a good spot right now. NAO certainly is helping us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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