North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Psuhoffman worried about being fringed. Classic stuff. It's like putting on comfortable shoes, we all have our roles in terms of worry. Him worried about being fringed lets me know that this might be an actual storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I don't see why that's a good analog. Maybe at 5h. My recollection is that the surface was completely different. I am pretty sure the NAO was solidly negative around the time of the storm, unlike anything we've seen this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 SE VA should really be part of the SE forum. Raleigh / Rocky Mount, NC have similar climates to SE VA To be fair, the MA forum is very active and full of knowledgeable people so us on the fringes (with no real/worthwhile homes) use the MA forums for model analysis and the banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Always a concern here but somehow things usually work out. I didn't look at the GGEM but on the GFS anfd Euro precip spreads into the area from the west so a miss is less likely than if we are waiting for the precip to come up from the south. We still managed 4 inches on 1/30/10 when things looked rather bleak 24 hours before. I only remember around 1.5 or so. Did better 2 days later then of course the back to back 25"ers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Psuhoffman worried about being fringed. Classic stuff. It really isn't a storm until he is worried about something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GEFS looked solid. Couple big rainers but they are ouliers. Most look similar to the op with typical variations and maybe 1 south miss. If anything, the run implies greater risk of too far north than south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro is about to run, will post maps from EuroWX once it gets closer to 2/1-2/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Psuhoffman worried about being fringed. Classic stuff. I know, I know...its like a running tradition but I am ALWAYS worried about how it could go wrong...in this case I see a southern slider as the bigger threat then rain. If I was more worried about a cutter I would be saying that. Fact is for every 10 threats at this range only 2-3 work out so most of the time something WILL go wrong. For DC its more like 1 out of every 10. Believe it or not my area is not the grandfather creator of snow, we get about twice as much as DC/Baltimore but its not like we average 100" and have a 20" snowpack all winter. I have yet to have a 6" snow this year. Plenty of storms miss up here as well...and while my elevation and northern location helps a lot in marginal temperature situations, it does absolutely nothing if precip doesn't make it here so of course a fringe situation always bothers me more then a temperature one. If I lived in DC I probably would be more worried about rain then being fringed though... location is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GEFS looked solid. Couple big rainers but they are ouliers. Most look similar to the op with typical variations and maybe 1 south miss. If anything, the run implies greater risk of too far north than south. Mean track is great. Right across the VA/NC line then offshore near Wallops. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GEFS looked solid. Couple big rainers but they are ouliers. Most look similar to the op with typical variations and maybe 1 south miss. If anything, the run implies greater risk of too far north than south. It doesn't surprise me that the models might want to keep coming back around to a cutter idea. As said by others, we haven't had a solid -NAO all winter so the models might not have the pattern sorted out well enough just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm not worried about suppression at all, I think the whole area looks good but it could trend back north. This isn't a Richmond Special. Of course who knows, but GGEM has been jumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 VERY early but 24 hours out on EURO I like what I'm seeing in the PAC NW, the s/w looks a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Well those are 500mb analogs as most are. Surface isn't the same but I don't know if I'd call it completely different. Regardless.. they all have 1/29/2003 as the top one and that period didn't do anything at DCA at least. Interesting that last event fit in with a Nino year and we see Nino analogs here maybe. I think CIPS filters by ENSO so it would only show analogs that fit into that criteria. I actually don't like that as I think the enso state leads to a setup but does not necessarily mean the same setup in a non enso match wouldnt be a good analog. I would much rather CPC run analogs at 24, 48, and 72 hours based on entire hemispheric h5 conditions like they do for d6-10 and 8-14. CIPS narrows the search criteria too much and focuses on things that I don't necessarily think are always the driving factor in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It doesn't surprise me that the models might want to keep coming back around to a cutter idea. As said by others, we haven't had a solid -NAO all winter so the models might not have the pattern sorted out well enough just yet. We have a transient -nao and 50/50 in place. The best block of the year timed with a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's like putting on comfortable shoes, we all have our roles in terms of worry. Him worried about being fringed lets me know that this might be an actual storm. In a way this is very true because if I didn't think this had good potential I would probably be silent and not "worried" about anything. I worry when I think we have a chance and am nervous it goes bust. When I think it will bust I am complacent about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 @ 39 hours the shortwave in the NW def looks better, more potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Mean track is great. Right across the VA/NC line then offshore near Wallops. Let's do this. Yes it is. Looks almost identical to the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yes it is. Looks almost identical to the op For a minute I couldn't find Greenland buried under that High. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Well those are 500mb analogs as most are. Surface isn't the same but I don't know if I'd call it completely different. Regardless.. they all have 1/29/2003 as the top one and that period didn't do anything at DCA at least. Interesting that last event fit in with a Nino year and we see Nino analogs here maybe. 1/30/2003 was a surprise 4-8 inch back my way. I called it 12 hours before the snow started and may have been the only person. 6.5 at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 @ 57 hours there is slight phasing going on with the baja energy. This should def be better than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I can see this becoming like the storms last March... maybe 3-5" in Baltimore with the more impressive totals around DC and a bit south. Yeah, for this event I like where usedtobe and noreastercane sit... they could get smoked. I hope so! And yeah I got more from 3/3 and 3/17 than the Feb. KU so I'll take that track again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Def liking the EURO thus far, in fact IMO it looks better than the 12z GFS did at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 @ 57 hours there is slight phasing going on with the baja energy. This should def be better than 00z Which is it? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Which is it? lol This should be a good run, we got decent precip all the way up to Chicago, going to be much stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Hour 66 shows storm entering IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Hour 78: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Aren't those pay maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Hour 84: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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