RIC_WX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 C VA in the bullseye 72 hours out? Just stop and listen to yourselves people. Forget what the model says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I would like to talk ratios. And Medium Rare. Steak and fries always delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 We only got like .3" on 1/30/10.. and not to go back to ratios because that's a short range conversation when we're not seeing random QPF hits IMO.. but we don't need .7" liquid to do well in a cold event. As you know of course. exactly...a weaker 0.3" QPF storm probably still gives us a good chance at 4"+.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Give me the GGEM and call it a winter !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 exactly...a weaker 0.3" QPF storm probably still gives us a good chance at 4"+.... GFS still seems like it's printing out close to a top end event in this setup. Definitely possible but I'd probably be in the it might go south crowd myself for now. But that's not necessarily horrible for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 exactly...a weaker 0.3" QPF storm probably still gives us a good chance at 4"+.... The January 30, 2010 event featured 6.4 inches of snow with only 0.33 inches of precipitation at DCA. Temperature range of 18-23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS still seems like it's printing out close to a top end event in this setup. Definitely possible but I'd probably be in the it might go south crowd myself for now. But that's not necessarily horrible for us... But you can expect us Balt north worriers to troll the threads worrying about it if it trends that way...just like 1/30/10 all over again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Considering the ggem just dropped the west track and joined the gfs/euro I think we can relax and enjoy the details now. You better stop praying this thing south. You may end up regretting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I know south is definitely in the envelope but I'm just not that worried about it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 you're assuming we want that. Given the setup I'm way more worried about a miss south then rain. Given my location might influence that. But I expected a south shift. Now just hope it doesn't keep going that way. Always a concern here but somehow things usually work out. I didn't look at the GGEM but on the GFS anfd Euro precip spreads into the area from the west so a miss is less likely than if we are waiting for the precip to come up from the south. We still managed 4 inches on 1/30/10 when things looked rather bleak 24 hours before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 you're assuming we want that. Given the setup I'm way more worried about a miss south then rain. Given my location might influence that. But I expected a south shift. Now just hope it doesn't keep going that way. Exactly......and today isn't the first time this has been talked about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I know south is definitely in the envelope but I'm just not that worried about it yet. I worry about everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You better stop praying this thing south. You may end up regretting it. The only thing I don't want is rain. I'll gladly trade for a lighter event of cold powder. I can't control weather so I'll follow standard weenie protocol and hug the coldest and snowiest model. USA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 But you can expect us Balt north worriers to troll the threads worrying about it if it trends that way...just like 1/30/10 all over again... Well that event isn't necessarily an analog.. I was writing about it last night and just realized the 500mb pass is similar. Overall this year there's been a south trend even without blocking though. I'm not sure there are any real trends yet though it seems the western option is largely off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The January 30, 2010 event featured 6.4 inches of snow with only 0.33 inches of precipitation at DCA. Temperature range of 18-23. As the snow was falling the modeling had the QPF bulls eye for that event on the VA/NC border. Ground truth by sunset was 60 miles North of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I worry about everything. I can see this becoming like the storms last March... maybe 3-5" in Baltimore with the more impressive totals around DC and a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I can see this becoming like the storms last March... maybe 3-5" in Baltimore with the more impressive totals around DC and a bit south. Yeah, I can see that. I just hope we can get out of the infernal 2-4" range. Maybe this becomes a 4-6" storm with higher amounts south of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Well that event isn't necessarily an analog.. I was writing about it last night and just realized the 500mb pass is similar. Overall this year there's been a south trend even without blocking though. I'm not sure there are any real trends yet though it seems the western option is largely off the table. There has been a south trend with cold systems going back to last year once past the big Feb. storm. All 3 March storms went south but still manged to get decent snow up into PA. Oddly enough when we had all the blocking in 2010 most system keep coming north in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah, I can see that. I just hope we can get out of the infernal 2-4" range. Maybe this becomes a 4-6" storm with higher amounts south of Baltimore. Yeah, for this event I like where usedtobe and noreastercane sit... they could get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah, for this event I like where usedtobe and noreastercane sit... they could get smoked. You should like where you sit. They could have mixing issues and even if they don't and get hit hard odds are you will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think we know how these things work out. Calvert County being the smoke zone sounds good, but doesn't often work out. Yeah, for this event I like where usedtobe and noreastercane sit... they could get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah, for this event I like where usedtobe and noreastercane sit... they could get smoked. Draw a line from Leesburg to Arlington to Wes, and I think that's where the jackpot sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Actually, Jan 2010 was in there on the 0z GEFS analog and Euro/EPS analogs.. not super high tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Quick glance at GEFS mean looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 We only got like .3" on 1/30/10.. and not to go back to ratios because that's a short range conversation when we're not seeing random QPF hits IMO.. but we don't need .7" liquid to do well in a cold event. As you know of course. that storm isn't remembered so fondly everywhere. Heavy bands stalled just to my south. Only got 1-2" up here. South definitely worries me more then amped. Throw an amped up qpf bomb up into a cold air mass with a -nao and let's see how that works. I've seen suppressed crap not work out plenty. I'm mecs hunting here. No more 1-3" crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GEFS looks a lot better than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Psuhoffman worried about being fringed. Classic stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Actually, Jan 2010 was in there on the 0z GEFS analog and Euro/EPS analogs.. not super high tho. I don't see why that's a good analog. Maybe at 5h. My recollection is that the surface was completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 We are desperate for a storm, 347 users in here. For the Euro i bet we have 450. Euro has been awful this year. I will stick with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I don't see why that's a good analog. Maybe at 5h. My recollection is that the surface was completely different. Well those are 500mb analogs as most are. Surface isn't the same but I don't know if I'd call it completely different. Regardless.. they all have 1/29/2003 as the top one and that period didn't do anything at DCA at least. Interesting that last event fit in with a Nino year and we see Nino analogs here maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.