Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Probably me! I'm cautiously optimistic until the euro come in. Like everyone one else, I like the GFS track, etc. No snow doesn't look like an option though I still could see a front end thump to a mix if the storm were to come north a bit on subsequent runs. Last night's UKMET was in last night's GGEm camp. Can't post more, got an article to write. Last night euro ens mean track was very good but south of the gfs. Agree about snow seems certain. Whether it mixes or not won't be clear for another day or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wouldn't that be a kick in the groin. No, it didn't look like that was a great match.I wish cpc did 48 and 72 hour full hemispheric analogs like they do for day7-10. Those cips use too narrow if a domain. It's too specific. Things that happen outside that domain impact the results plus your relying in an accurate forecast on that specific location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Probably me! I'm cautiously optimistic until the euro come in. Like everyone one else, I like the GFS track, etc. No snow doesn't look like an option though I still could see a front end thump to a mix if the storm were to come north a bit on subsequent runs. Last night's UKMET was in last night's GGEm camp. Can't post more, got an article to write. And yours truly will be working the evening shift at the NCWCP, unless someone wants to swap shifts (which I doubt considering it's Super Bowl Sunday!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Definitely has to do with snowpack. GFS is almost certainly over doing it. It shows -3 near ezf and +12 less than 20 miles away. Lines up with the snow cutoff.That always happens in modeling, for example I saw on meteocentre meteograms that 0z 1/28 GGEM had sfc temps around 0 next Friday Morning in Albuquerque, NM. GGEM/RGEM have a big tendency to show temps way too cold. We could easily hit single digits though. Like the look of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's essentially a 12 hour event - 6pm to 6am.....It is hard to get herculean amounts of QPF in that duration.... Maybe I'm getting too ambitious. I guess the precip that moves in early Sunday afternoon is probably just some light overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM looks like its going to be good seeing the 72hr panel... decent confluence and cold air push Light QPF into DC metro at 78 84 has 1036 H in Plains... SLP in N LA... snowing in DC Based off seeing 90, we are going to like this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If my conversion from mm to in is correct, GGEM looks like .4-.6 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 96 looks so tasty and delicious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM is more suppressed - which isn't necessarily a bad thing - but it starts in earnest later and is not as big....still looks like 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM looks ok..looks a bit too far south right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM is more suppressed - which isn't necessarily a bad thing - but it starts in earnest later and is not as big....still looks like 6" even with the 102 panel? DC at 102 is ~20 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM C VA crushjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Considering the ggem just dropped the west track and joined the gfs/euro I think we can relax and enjoy the details now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM would imply better than normal ratios I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 even with the 102 panel? DC at 102 is ~20 degrees ? it takes an Atlanta - Myrtle Beach - Hatteras track....12z GFS has a low in SW VA...they're 2 different evolutions, with slightly different timelines...both give us snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM would imply better than normal ratios I would think Most def as the storm goes on... temps drop through the 20s into the upper teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ? it takes an Atlanta - Myrtle Beach - Hatteras track....12z GFS has a low in SW VA...they're 2 different evolutions, with slightly different timelines...both give us snow.. I was more asking about the "suppressed" statement, but it doesn't matter. Nice storm for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ratio talk ranks up there with NAM analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 UKMET takes a further north track, don't know specifics, but a 997mb at 96hrs at 41N/70W or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM surface is the coldest I've seen on all the models, and that model usually runs a bit warm. I would think snow ratios would be great too, plenty cold upstairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Considering the ggem just dropped the west track and joined the gfs/euro I think we can relax and enjoy the details now. Makes me worried about a southern slider...beggars... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ratio talk ranks up there with NAM analysis. Ah, but does it trump Boston snow ratio talks?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Zwyts/Bob -- do you guys have the 84 panel of the UKIE? This is 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 so it sounds like our biggest fear is depression...i mean suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ah, but does it trump Boston snow ratio talks?! Why are you talking about Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 so it sounds like our biggest fear is depression...i mean suppression. I think in the list of fears that is at the top....but we can still get snow with a wimpy event...see euro last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Considering the ggem just dropped the west track and joined the gfs/euro I think we can relax and enjoy the details now. you're assuming we want that. Given the setup I'm way more worried about a miss south then rain. Given my location might influence that. But I expected a south shift. Now just hope it doesn't keep going that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think in the list of fears that is at the top....but we can still get snow with a wimpy event...see euro last night We only got like .3" on 1/30/10.. and not to go back to ratios because that's a short range conversation when we're not seeing random QPF hits IMO.. but we don't need .7" liquid to do well in a cold event. As you know of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 We only got like .3" on 1/30/10.. and not to go back to ratios because that's a short range conversation when we're not seeing random QPF hits IMO.. but we don't need .7" liquid to do well in a cold event. As you know of course. I would like to talk ratios. And Medium Rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Gotta love it when all the models obviously differ but we stay in a good place whether its the northern or southern most solution! Lets keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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