Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yea, this looks like a good pattern for a MA snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Everything is pointing towards a decent slug of front running stuff that's well in advance of any slp approach. That part is a beautiful thing. Column is in perfect shape at onset. Not one to be greedy, but don't we usually juice up a bit more as we get closer to the event? Cautiously pumped here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Just for Ji, the 12z JMA @ 72 hours looks amped as hell... I prefer it that way as I want as many models as we can away from the sheared mess side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 F*** it. We don't have a raging +NAO, and it's southern stream energy running over a cold airmass. It's not complicated, so the models should have a decent handle on it. This. I want to bullseye with each run from here on out. Late shifts never seem to work in our favor (or haven't in a lot of years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 We are desperate for a storm, 347 users in here. For the Euro i bet we have 450. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm pumped. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormPinsMike Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It looks like my post got modded, but since I got so many replies... I realize most people refer to SnowTV as light non-accumulating snow. I was talking more about being able to watch it rip outside your window. The 90 and 93 panels make up most of the precip and and they happen at 1am and 4am. I'll go back to lurking and let us argue about the Boston ratios and whether Philly people belong in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Verbatim, its LOL down in Spotsylvania County......northern half of county gets like 6 inches, southern part maybe an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It looks like my post got modded, but since I got so many replies... I realize most people refer to SnowTV as light non-accumulating snow. I was talking more about being able to watch it rip outside your window. The 90 and 93 panels make up most of the precip and and they happen at 1am and 4am. I'll go back to lurking and let us argue about the Boston ratios and whether Philly people belong in this forum If its ripping, I am up for it. Would have missed the thunder and lightning show at 3am on the morning of the Dec. 19, 2009 big show otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's superbowl sunday. Who won't be up until at least 1am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM just initialized.....will be in range in 15-20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 We don't have a raging +NAO, and it's southern stream energy running over a cold airmass. It's not complicated, so the models should have a decent handle on it. That's a big difference from anything else we've had this year. It's not an accident that models handled the winter of 09 - 10 so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If its ripping, I am up for it. Would have missed the thunder and lightning show at 3am on the morning of the Dec. 19, 2009 big show otherwise. Yeah if it's ripping at 1-3am that means many of us aren't going to work/are working from home the day after anyway. Perfect night to stay up late with some cold ones and take the dog out for some late night jebwalks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Well below zero Tues. morning with a fresh snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Very good run for our area. Just hoping the cold air stays locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 MN has a good point about hp. A little weakness could end up further west and north but this is a nice panel and under d4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 i'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Very good run for our area. Just hoping the cold air stays locked in. It is a very good run for most of LWX cwa.....if you had to guess where Snow vs No Snow line might set up, is it in LWX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 After taking a second look at the surface it almost looks like the qpf may be too conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Well below zero Tues. morning with a fresh snowpack. those temps are not right .. but less not right than last night maybe lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordonheimer Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Run looks good for NOVA, SE VA going to get more cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 those temps are not right .. but less not right than last night maybe lol. I have never seen that kind of cold modeled within 5 days. What the heck is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Run looks good for NOVA, SE VA going to get more cold rain SE VA should really be part of the SE forum. Raleigh / Rocky Mount, NC have similar climates to SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 After taking a second look at the surface it almost looks like the qpf may be too conservative. It's essentially a 12 hour event - 6pm to 6am.....It is hard to get herculean amounts of QPF in that duration.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Lock this baby up and call it a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z GGEM at 60 has a 1043 H nosing into the N Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's superbowl sunday. Who won't be up until at least 1am? Probably me! I'm cautiously optimistic until the euro come in. Like everyone one else, I like the GFS track, etc. No snow doesn't look like an option though I still could see a front end thump to a mix if the storm were to come north a bit on subsequent runs. Last night's UKMET was in last night's GGEm camp. Can't post more, got an article to write. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I have never seen that kind of cold modeled within 5 days. What the heck is going on. Definitely has to do with snowpack. GFS is almost certainly over doing it. It shows -3 near ezf and +12 less than 20 miles away. Lines up with the snow cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM looks like its going to be good seeing the 72hr panel... decent confluence and cold air push Light QPF into DC metro at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Probably me! I'm cautiously optimistic until the euro come in. Like everyone one else, I like the GFS track, etc. No snow doesn't look like an option though I still could see a front end thump to a mix if the storm were to come north a bit on subsequent runs. Last night's UKMET was in last night's GGEm camp. Can't post more, got an article to write. Last night euro ens mean track was very good but south of the gfs. Agree about snow seems certain. Whether it mixes or not won't be clear for another day or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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