stormtracker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well, out of the big cities, we're the losers on this run. There's still a part of me that says this can turn around. I'm throwing down the gauntlet....0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 3:53 PM, stormtracker said: I changed my mind, Im ready to give up. These models all seem to be doing the same thing. Probably overestimated the cold push south. Dont worry, it comes in after the storm to freeze our mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 3:54 PM, Ian said: A good reason not to run too high early. You can maybe still salvage something up front if we can push good moisture out ahead of it. Not something that works out here a ton but maybe. Glad I'm not mapgirl. She's like 10 feet away from a big hit. Yeah, I'm thinking around the MD line has a shot if the models stop the bleeding and come back south a little. But like you said for us all we do is hope for more front end before the cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 if you are going to see changes..it will start at 00z or 18z just like last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Same thing 3 runs in a row. PA turnpike gets hammered while we get very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Another 8 runs of 5-10 mile south shifts like that one and we'll be back in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 3:54 PM, Ravens94 said: SIDE by side comparing 6z to 12z http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/12z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ma_f72.png http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/06z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ma_f78.png Just about zero difference, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 3:55 PM, stormtracker said: Well, out of the big cities, we're the losers on this run. There's still a part of me that says this can turn around. I'm throwing down the gauntlet....0z tonight. If we get the same jog 5 runs in a row then we get hit solid. ETA: ellinwood's idea is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I can only hope there's mega winds over our frozen mud for Tuesday, that would be swell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 3:56 PM, Ellinwood said: Another 8 runs of 5-10 mile south shifts like that one and we'll be back in business. On 1/30/2015 at 3:57 PM, Bob Chill said: If we get the same jog 5 runs in a row then we get hit solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 3:57 PM, MN Transplant said: USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 3:57 PM, MN Transplant said: USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_078.gif One can only laugh at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 3:57 PM, Ian said: I lol'd when I saw that I had ninja'd him. If it jogs back north 5-10 miles we're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The ongoing , meltdowns here are horrible. Come on guys, it is close. It can still change south some....i hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 3:57 PM, Bob Chill said: If we get the same jog 5 runs in a row then we get hit solid. ETA: ellinwood's idea is better On 1/30/2015 at 3:56 PM, Ellinwood said: Another 8 runs of 5-10 mile south shifts like that one and we'll be back in business. With all that jogging, we'll have run a marathon and be in good shape by then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS offers mild hope. I keep going into 12z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So close yet so far. This can be chased without driving far. Just drive to Gettysburg or york. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 3:59 PM, Ellinwood said: I lol'd when I saw that I had ninja'd him. If it jogs back north 5-10 miles we're screwed. The real fun begins when the euro is 7.5 miles south of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 3:57 PM, MN Transplant said: USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_078.gif Wow...somebody tell me where 40N starts again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 3:57 PM, MN Transplant said: USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_078.gif lol, looks like we need about 100-150 miles shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 3:57 PM, MN Transplant said: USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_078.gif it's almost like there's a line across the country between snow and no snow....wait, there is! 40N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That's close enough to at least keep watching...might still be a gut blow but man...what's 50 - 100 miles in two days...it's the same concept but north....I'm hanging tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 4:03 PM, leesburg 04 said: That's close enough to at least keep watching...might still be a gut blow but man...what's 50 - 100 miles in two days...it's the same concept but north....I'm hanging tight adjusting for temps, i'd say it's closer to 100-150 miles. we need a pretty moderate shift south by 0z or this is going to be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That snow map is absolutely brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Baltimore-north gets a decent snow before the rain. Looks like 2-3". Honestly, I'd rather it not snow if it'll be washed away by rain in the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 2:42 PM, Ji said: there is a 1050 High in Greenland....how is this tracking north again? PNA ridge shifted way too far west and was knocked down at the worst possible time. The NAO is decent but its not like a 2010 block or anything. The combo shifted the trough axis a bit too far west and too flat for us on some runs. All the winter's over talk is funny though, everone knows the minute another threat shows up we will be doing the same thing all over. Time is running out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not going to lie, I'm a little more calm after the 12z GFS. It won't take a huge south shift to put my area back in the game. DC area will be tougher though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 3:53 PM, stormtracker said: I changed my mind, Im ready to give up. These models all seem to be doing the same thing. Probably overestimated the cold push south. I'm pretty sure that was the reg flag when yesterday the GFS was 7 below at Reagan Tuesday morning. Kind of sign the cold push was unrealistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We'll be fine. Tell em Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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