Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 5:06 AM, mitchnick said: the ensemble mean on the last couple runs were similar to the operational too idk what to think and can only use 4-letter words to speak right now Me too....GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 every decent qpf precip event on this run of the GFS at BWI is rain....unbelievable how it can shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM was the first to show a snow storm for us 3 nights ago, lost it, now it's back looking almost identical (Yoda posted the snow map of 8-10" in fact) I need sleep....good luck on the Euro run folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 5:08 AM, mitchnick said: every decent qpf precip event on this run of the GFS at BWI is rain....unbelievable how it can shift 6-10" of powder erased...just like that! Not what I expected at all. This winter has been punishing...full of teasers and watching New England get thumped. If rather have 60 degrees than this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We'll be fine We are used to fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 5:07 AM, zwyts said: You could make the case it is slightly colder...I mean it definitely is...but the mean track is similar...looks like it has a cluster of members southeast of the OP though That is what counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Can't say I'm shocked... this is why I don't get too excited 3 days out. I don't expect this to be clear until 0z tomorrow night or Saturday morning... whenever every feature will be on shore and sampled well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks awfully similar to the runs from Sunday/Monday when it looked bad for us and good for north of us. Be interesting to see if this is a trend or an anomaly. I've seen so many models spit out bad runs over the past few weeks that get erased 6 to 12 hours later... Waiting for ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Maybe we're at a point where too much resolution is going into the models for more locally wackier waves. Would this at all be expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 5:19 AM, Fozz said: Can't say I'm shocked... this is why I don't get too excited 3 days out. I don't expect this to be clear until 0z tomorrow night or Saturday morning... whenever every feature will be on shore and sampled well. The first stage of weenie acceptance. Also, BINGO https://twitter.com/paulythegun/status/560879810122358787 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Middle left is the worst on that bingo table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 5:24 AM, Ian said: The first stage of weenie acceptance. Also, BINGO https://twitter.com/paulythegun/status/560879810122358787 That's brilliant. Someone mentions a "warm nose"...hate that stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So, while we're waiting for the Euro, is it OK to extrapolate the RGEM? FWIW, At 48 hours the RGEM looks like it's somewhere between the GFS and GGEM with the high pressure out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 5:30 AM, cae said: So, while we're waiting for the Euro, is it OK to extrapolate the RGEM? FWIW, At 48 hours the RGEM looks like it's somewhere between the GFS and GGEM with the high pressure out west. That would make extrapolation even more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I can't beat Ian's Cras but we have the Navgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 DGEX nailed Snowmageddon. Or at least that's how I remember it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 5:45 AM, snowfan said: eta.totsnow192.gif Nice the DGEX will bring us home ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM is fine... EURO will come through for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 5:53 AM, yoda said: GGEM is fine... EURO will come through for us Ahhh wishful thinking. The Euro has been following the GFS step for step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Euro come out at 1 am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 5:55 AM, ers-wxman1 said: Euro come out at 1 am? Yes its running right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 5:55 AM, ers-wxman1 said: Euro come out at 1 am? 1245 or 1250 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I have a big Wx training exercise in Fairfax at 730 am but I'm staying up for the euro in hope of seeing something positive wrt the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's out to 30 now, so it won't be much longer..... On 1/30/2015 at 5:56 AM, ers-wxman1 said: I have a big Wx training exercise in Fairfax at 730 am but I'm staying up for the euro in hope of seeing something positive wrt the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 5:55 AM, yoda said: Yes its running right now Bring it on. Think cold and white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 5:57 AM, snowfan said: It's out to 30 now, so it won't be much longer..... Which site do you guys view the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Euro will hold, and everyone will sleep well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 5:59 AM, stormtracker said: Euro will hold, and everyone will sleep well. I won't share my extrapolation idea from 48 for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 6:00 AM, Ian said: I won't share my extrapolation idea from 48 for now.. Oh I know it is going to bad. Nothing is easy around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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