Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:08 PM, Bob Chill said: Euro ens mslp track is perfect. KY-SWVA-off the coast at va beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The cluster in WVA is a little caution flag but obviously the overwhelming majority hit us good. Looks like MD is ground zero for both mean precip and mean snowfall. I meant MD/NOVA is ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:13 PM, Ian said: On 1/29/2015 at 8:08 PM, Bob Chill said: Euro ens mslp track is perfect. KY-SWVA-off the coast at va beach. Ian do you have a list of the top analogs to this pattern? I believe I saw you make mention of them earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:15 PM, Bob Chill said: The cluster in WVA is a little caution flag but obviously the overwhelming majority hit us good. Looks like MD is ground zero for both mean precip and mean snowfall. I meant MD/NOVA is ground zero. Are their any big ones Bob? I can't shake the notion that this might end up as a pretty big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I apologize if this has been posted before, but the EURO puts out 1.33" of precipitation for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:21 PM, dallen7908 said: I apologize if this has been posted before, but the EURO puts out 1.33" of precipitation for BWI.must be for 10 day total because I counted around .87" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:18 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Ian do you have a list of the top analogs to this pattern? I believe I saw you make mention of them earlier. Euro ensemble not out yet but these are 12z/500mb NH Euro GFS GFS ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:20 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Are their any big ones Bob? I can't shake the notion that this might end up as a pretty big storm. There's 12" ones in there. Can't really tell what the biggest is. Half have 6" or more fore many of us. Mean is 5-6" which is pretty good considering mean precip is .50-.60. Guess not many rainers in there. You'll be glad to know there's like only 1-2 unacceptable south solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Where did the op have the low relative to the mean? Was it at VA beach as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:26 PM, nflwxman said: Where did the op have the low relative to the mean? Was it at VA beach as well? They're all pretty much in the same neighborhood GFS/Euro/ens wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Unlike the last storm, where we had major models split on the impact, sure seems like we have pretty good agreement for this storm. Heck, even saw that the NAV-G is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:24 PM, Ian said: Euro ensemble not out yet but these are 12z/500mb NH Euro GFS GFS ENS Thanks. I saw that list and took a deep breath when I saw the year at the top. I was wrong, but I thought pd 2 might make the list. At least at 5h across the U.S. it's similar, but I don't have maps that show more of the NA continent and the Atlantic. I'm sure they exist, but I won't look for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:27 PM, Ian said: They're all pretty much in the same neighborhood GFS/Euro/ens wise. Thanks. That generally puts me right on the gradient. Nice to see very few members going north of the mean though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:25 PM, Bob Chill said: There's 12" ones in there. Can't really tell what the biggest is. Half have 6" or more fore many of us. Mean is 5-6" which is pretty good considering mean precip is .50-.60. Guess not many rainers in there. You'll be glad to know there's like only 1-2 unacceptable south solutions. Thanks Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:28 PM, paxpatriot said: Unlike the last storm, where we had major models split on the impact, sure seems like we have pretty good agreement for this storm. Heck, even saw that the NAV-G is on board. Yeah. We have to feel pretty good about where the models are right now. But they can always agree later on a worse result for our area. I think its a givin we see some snow at this point. But how much is way up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:26 PM, nflwxman said: Where did the op have the low relative to the mean? Was it at VA beach as well? Hard to exactly tell. 90 is over Roanoke and 96 is just off OC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 2-8-97 is showing up on CIPS and isn't a terrible match. 3.2" at DCA. 6.8" at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 What was 2-16-96 in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:28 PM, nflwxman said: Thanks. That generally puts me right on the gradient. Nice to see very few members going north of the mean though. The mean and the op are really close together on this one. That plus the GFS/GEFS support looking similar is very encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:31 PM, MN Transplant said: 2-8-97 is showing up on CIPS and isn't a terrible match. 3.2" at DCA. 6.8" at IAD. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:31 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: What was 2-16-96 in this area? Screwed the interior, great for southern MD http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/16-Feb-96.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Either analog is 6-8" for us Fozz, i am liking the way this is looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:31 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: What was 2-16-96 in this area? 6.8 DCA, 8.2 IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:23 PM, mitchnick said: must be for 10 day total because I counted around .87" Ok, I see the problem. The "total" amount I quoted was the sum of hours 0-3, 0-6, 6-9, 6-12 etc. Someone needs to fix their code. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 7:37 PM, Fozz said: I doubt it, because the weatherbell maps (which we all know are 10:1) show our area getting about 9", while the Eurowx maps give us 11.5. It would make sense if Eurowx accounted for ratios. Thanks, that makes sense. On 1/29/2015 at 7:42 PM, MetalCapsFan said: Re: the EuroWx map snow ratios... DT posted something saying that those maps use the 'Evan Kuchera algorithm'. Can someone explain how that differs from, say, WxBell ratios? Thanks in advance. I believe EuroWX uses a 10:1 ratio. So if the model says you'd get the equivalent of 1" of rain, it will convert that to 10" of snow. I don't know what the Evan Kuchera algorithm is, but it probably takes into account factors like the ones HM discusses above. InstantWeatherMaps.com uses that algorithm as well. (http://www.instantweathermaps.com/faq.php) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:39 PM, DCAlexandria said: NAM'D? Not out far enough to tell yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 1044 in Northern Plains at 72... light QPF reaching DC metro Pretty sure this will be a good run seeing 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/29/2015 at 8:36 PM, MN Transplant said: 6.8 DCA, 8.2 IAD ...and 9.8 at BWI, that was the biggest event after the blizzard of '96 that year I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 18z NAM not as overly amped as 12z, but looks really good at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NAM 78: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012918&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=078 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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