nj2va Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Trying my hand at some thread mojo. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I suppose we probably should have a thread for a threat 3 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I have faith in nj2va to bring this puppy home for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's pretty weak sauce on the 18z GFS...looks like 1-2", with the higher amounts focused in the usual places EDIT - It's probably over 0.2" QPF for Loudoun so let's call it 1-3".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS is a strung out mess w/ no consolidated vort. I'd prefer a dynamic 975mb bomb over Scranton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On 1/28/2015 at 10:09 PM, StudentOfClimatology said: GFS is a strung out mess w/ no consolidated vort. I'd prefer a dynamic 975mb bomb over Scranton. I might too, though that scenario seems damn unlikely right now..GFS raw is super cold on Monday..a high of like 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On 1/28/2015 at 10:11 PM, zwyts said: I might too, though that scenario seems damn unlikely right now..GFS raw is super cold on Monday..a high of like 16 I'm with you..I'll take whatever I can get winter wise, but it gets old rooting for a fluke inch via the all-to-common spaghetti vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It's a stats padder right now. I won't turn down a 1-3" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS is better than last run though. 2" or so in DC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It is what it is. Funny how quick things change in the medium range this year. This could easily end up a 2-4 deal. It's not a terrible vort pass but no chance to amp up. Interacts with some ss moisture as well. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On 1/28/2015 at 10:23 PM, Ji said: I'm done You will take your 2-3" and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On 1/28/2015 at 10:23 PM, Bob Chill said: It is what it is. Funny how quick things change in the medium range this year. This could easily end up a 2-4 deal. It's not a terrible vort pass but no chance to amp up. Interacts with some ss moisture as well. We'll see. Yep, I'd take 2 inches without precip issues and run. Of course I'd prefer 4-8 but I don't mind nickel and diming my way to climo, it's better than not snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On 1/28/2015 at 10:25 PM, DCTeacherman said: Yep, I'd take 2 inches without precip issues and run. Of course I'd prefer 4-8 but I don't mind nickel and diming my way to climo, it's better than not snowing. Same here. If we get a 1-3" or 2-4" event with some cold that's not too bad all things considered. As I said before, would rather that than a cutter or apps runner where we get maybe some slop on the front end followed by cold rain, or just plain cold rain. This at least keeps things open for something more, and it's not yet determined how much--or if--things will be suppressed. We're still talking 4-5 days out and solutions thus far have been inconsistent to say the least. Of course, it would be nice to see more moisture streaming up and over the cold air; there does appear to be more than at 12Z at least. (ETA: I guess the event late next week isn't looking too good in the 18Z GFS? Given the lack of discussion either here or in the medium range thread.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This thread is DOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On 1/28/2015 at 10:39 PM, Wonderdog said: This thread is DOA. its 5 days away SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On 1/28/2015 at 10:41 PM, H2O said: its 5 days away SMHExactly. Yesterday, app runner. Today, strung out mess. Tomorrow, sharknado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Is there a Euro-NAM consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'd take the gfs. Why not? Cold couple of inches? Pretty. Easy clean up. I'm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 How could this go from a blown up plains phaser/ app runner to blah? I don't get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On 1/28/2015 at 11:36 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I'd take the gfs. Why not? Cold couple of inches? Pretty. Easy clean up. I'm down. everybody likes a blizzard until it's clean up time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On 1/28/2015 at 11:40 PM, PDIII said: How could this go from a blown up plains phaser/ app runner to blah? I don't get it? science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On 1/28/2015 at 11:40 PM, PDIII said: How could this go from a blown up plains phaser/ app runner to blah? I don't get it? Why do you ask this. It has been answered man times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If I can have high temps in the teens the next day, then I'd be very happy with 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On 1/28/2015 at 11:42 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Are you kidding? I love the clean up. same here, but a lot of ppl are not weird like us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On 1/28/2015 at 11:42 PM, snowfan said: science Actually......lack there of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On 1/28/2015 at 11:46 PM, Tenman Johnson said: Why do you ask this. It has been answered man times. tenman times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 On 1/28/2015 at 11:40 PM, PDIII said: How could this go from a blown up plains phaser/ app runner to blah? I don't get it? Right now none of the three exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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