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Clipper System 1/29-1/30


IsentropicLift

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And the southern winds are rather light, so yes I agree.

 

Ditto.  I see too much model reading where the surface freezing line on MOS is taken as gospel, not to mention as the snow line, despite a cold column and weak or no low level WAA.

 

I've seen clippers go from expected snow to rainers with stronger than anticipated WAA (12/1989 was notable), but most of these things are all snow when they look like this one does.  Possible exception is the immediate south shore if the precip is light and there is enough steam pouring off of the tea kettle.

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Agreed. Upton agrees also:

 

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS BY LATER TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS RAISING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...PROFILE SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW. WARM AIR MOVING IN OVER THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND
SNOW OVER THE WATERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY
MOVE IN ACROSS THE VERY FAR EASTERN ZONES FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY FALL A FEW
DEGREES TONIGHT. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE COLDER NAM TEMPERATURES
AND TRENDS.

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