Mikehobbyst Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NWS is gung ho on all snow for LI, not sure I buy it, the soundings from most guidance show an above freezing layer of 1200-1800ft, it may be real tough for this to be all snow from JFK east, LGA west its probably all snow. The RGEM still going fairly rainy east of that area as well. That will be ZR- for LI south shore. Do not need that. Temps will be 31-32 with .1 inch of -ZR or -ZL. I like Monday for an ideal track and 8-12 inches of snow. Most places near 10". Looks like a good chance to me. This is an all snow event. Do you think we stay bitter cold wall to wall through 2/20 or 2/25, with tons of snow ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 This is just terrible analysis for Long Island . Nassau County Precip arrives at hour 42 6z 850 - 6 BL north shore is 33 -34 the south shore starts at 37 .1 falls hour 48 12z 850s -4 BL north shore 32 the south shore is 34 -35 in Nassau County .1 falls Suffolk county Precip arrives hour 48 12z 850 - 4 BL 35- 36 .1 falls Hour 54 18z 850 - 8 BL 33- 34 .1 falls Hour 60 0z 850 - 12 BL 29 .05 falls Long Island is prob 1 to 2 , your ground is frozen as you have snow cover 850s are cold and dropping cooling will be take place . So what comes will freshen up your pack .The N shore is closer to 2 - the south shore closer 1. But too many people don`t realize the N shore of Suffolk county too many paint them as some warm spot , they do very well with clippers as this one will deepen once into New England You will not rain The 00z ECMWF shows the same solution. At 06z Friday the south shore of LI is almost 40F. Exactly what I said yesterday after the 12z run. If you have WxBell look at the 6hr snapshot valid 06z Friday on the high res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Regardless of wharever surface temps are the SREF and NAM continue to be very dry with less than 0.10" LE falling over most of the area. A bit more for NW NJ and the LHV. The 12z NAM also has LI above freezing at the surface for the duration of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 00z ECMWF shows the same solution. At 06z Friday the south shore of LI is almost 40F. Exactly what I said yesterday after the 12z run. If you have WxBell look at the 6hr snapshot valid 06z Friday on the high res. Makes sense with the clipper passing north, S or SW winds ahead of it off the warmer Atlantic-solution makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Makes sense with the clipper passing north, S or SW winds ahead of it off the warmer Atlantic-solution makes sense Could not have said it better myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The NAM has some enhanced precipitation for some of our area as the low gets going to our east, I'm sure SNE will be very happy with that outcome. Edit; it's very minor right now but if it gets going a little quicker and a bit south it might add something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NAM is a little wetter for places N of NYC... Eastern part of the Mid Hudson Valley over .25 this run due to squall line coming through during the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The NAM has some enhanced precipitation for some of our area as the low gets going to our east, I'm sure SNE will be very happy with that outcome. Edit; it's very minor right now but if it gets going a little quicker and a bit south it might add something. Its somewhat of an anafrontal signature, its occurred before in that setup with a low forming to the east but usually you need more negative tilt to the trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 (Its somewhat of an anafrontal signature, its occurred before in that setup with a low forming to the east but usually you need more negative tilt to the trof) Totally agree. Radar shows bulk to the north. I don't see more than a dusting in Union county NJ for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NAM is a little wetter for places N of NYC... Eastern part of the Mid Hudson Valley over .25 this run due to squall line coming through during the morning commute. As cold as it will be that could be 3-5 inches at 1:20 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 RGEM got colder for the coast. All snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 RGEM got colder for the coast. All snow for NYC. It also has the anafrontal signature, probably mostly for LI, but still light amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 RGEM got colder for the coast. All snow for NYC. Wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wrong ???? The map you just posted has snow over NYC, Brooklyn and Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wrong He's right. RGEM did get colder. This map does show NYC getting snow with a mix to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 For everyone else, The Rgem got colder and is all snow for NYC. 1"-3" event down to Queens coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 He's right. RGEM did get colder. This map does show NYC getting snow with a mix to the east. So then how is that any colder than the 00z run which shows the mix line over the same spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 So then how is that any colder than the 00z run which shows the mix line over the same spot? Because the other runs showed mix and this run shows 100% snow. You either dont know where NYC and it's boroughs are or you are blind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 So then how is that any colder than the 00z run which shows the mix line over the same spot? This map shows heavier precip getting into the area than the past run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 to my eye, the snow line is slightly further east. Model noise at this point. Close call for the coast, but if all snow 1-2 likely with a shot at 3 per RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I would expect LGA/NYC/EWR are mostly snow, JFK may be RASN, ISP I think is mainly rain with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 When you look at accumulations on the 06z RGEM vs 12z RGEM they are still nearly identical and funny enough NYC still isn't the JP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 If the 12z RGEM is correct 3-4" will be possible north of I-80 and a bit more than that once north of 287 in NY. 1-2" south of that and for LI where the BL will be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You can see the differences on those map. At 6z, NYC is barely an inch while it shows 1-3 inches at 12z on those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 You can see the differences on those map. At 6z, NYC is barely an inch while it shows 1-3 inches at 12z on those maps. The RGEM is also the wettest model. No other model even comes close to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The RGEM is also the wettest model. No other model even comes close to this. it is. FWIW. the RGEM nailed the clipper a few Friday's ago where it dumped a quick 2 inches on many places in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 When you look at accumulations on the 06z RGEM vs 12z RGEM they are still nearly identical and funny enough NYC still isn't the JP You post maps trying to support your points... but the maps disprove your points! 12Z RGEM has much more snow verbatim for the 5 boros than 6Z. /debate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 06z 12z . Looks like 2.5MM+ line shifted 5 miles SE. Just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 You post maps trying to support your points... but the maps disprove your points! 12Z RGEM has much more snow verbatim for the 5 boros than 6Z. /debate Do you support AG3's thoughts of a NYC JP with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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