Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You probably benefited from colder temps up there. Down here it was the snowblower clogging variety. And then we flipped to rain at the end which added to the moisture content. same here, the 6-8 inches of powder landed on top of what was left of Fri night's event, which had morphed into 3-4 inches of compact cement. Would have been better the other way around, although the cement would have compacted the powder down quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GEFS mean for the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The clipper on the Euro is 2 inches area wide . Do not listen to warm anything . 850s on LI HOUR 42- 48 -54 when it snows on LI 850s are MINUS 6 . The BL in Nassau at 42 - 48 are 33 to 34 and in Suffolk they start at 37 - but at 48 - 54 they too cool to 34 when the SNOW rolls in Deep snow pack Low 850s YOU GUYS SNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The clipper on the Euro is 2 inches area wide . Do not listen to warm anything . 850s on LI HOUR 42- 48 -54 when it snows on LI 850s are MINUS 6 . The BL in Nassau at 42 - 48 are 33 to 34 and in Suffolk they start at 37 - but at 48 - 54 they too cool to 34 when the SNOW rolls in Deep snow pack Low 850s YOU GUYS SNOW Yea clipper region wide looks good for 1-3 inches... more as you get much farther inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 More snow from the clipper is going to screw up the SB storm... I would rather toss this clipper for a bigger SB snow... just saying... I am sure you would all agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 More snow from the clipper is going to screw up the SB storm... I would rather toss this clipper for a bigger SB snow... just saying... I am sure you would all agree At 06z Friday the south shore of LI is almost 40F. The cold air is confined at the surface from NYC and points NW. The cold air is droppoing down but it arrives too late for LI. If you want to say that it can snow with the surface in the mid-upper 30's? Fine, but it won't be hard enough to accumulate or cause evaporative cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 More snow from the clipper is going to screw up the SB storm... I would rather toss this clipper for a bigger SB snow... just saying... I am sure you would all agree It now appears that both the GFS and ECMWF "deflate" the Superbowl storm prospects for the NYC metro area. Both models had very sharp drops in qpf relative to their 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At 06z Friday the south shore of LI is almost 40F. The cold air is confined at the surface from NYC and points NW. The cold air is droppoing down but it arrives too late for LI. If you want to say that it can snow with the surface in the mid-upper 30's? Fine, but it won't be hard enough to accumulate or cause evaporative cooling. OK so then what is causing on both the GFS and EURO for such the difference in placement of the SLP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 OK so then what is causing on both the GFS and EURO for such the difference in placement of the SLP? The differences in track are small. The models are in disagreement with how much moisutre makes it this far South. Both models have the surface freezing line near the coast. This surface low tracks too far north so the really cold air arrives after the storm has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The differences in track are small. The models are in disagreement with how much moisutre makes it this far South. Both models have the surface freezing line near the coast. This surface low tracks too far north so the really cold air arrives after the storm has passed. I apologize I was referring to the SB storm... but posted in wrong thread but PB explained why such a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At 06z Friday the south shore of LI is almost 40F. The cold air is confined at the surface from NYC and points NW. The cold air is droppoing down but it arrives too late for LI. If you want to say that it can snow with the surface in the mid-upper 30's? Fine, but it won't be hard enough to accumulate or cause evaporative cooling. This is just terrible analysis for Long Island . Nassau County Precip arrives at hour 42 6z 850 - 6 BL north shore is 33 -34 the south shore starts at 37 .1 falls hour 48 12z 850s -4 BL north shore 32 the south shore is 34 -35 in Nassau County .1 falls Suffolk county Precip arrives hour 48 12z 850 - 4 BL 35- 36 .1 falls Hour 54 18z 850 - 8 BL 33- 34 .1 falls Hour 60 0z 850 - 12 BL 29 .05 falls Long Island is prob 1 to 2 , your ground is frozen as you have snow cover 850s are cold and dropping cooling will be take place . So what comes will freshen up your pack .The N shore is closer to 2 - the south shore closer 1. But too many people don`t realize the N shore of Suffolk county too many paint them as some warm spot , they do very well with clippers as this one will deepen once into New England You will not rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 always thought that best snows were just to the north of the clipper's path and anyone south was subject to SW winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This is just terrible analysis for Long Island . Nassau County Precip arrives at hour 42 6z 850 - 6 BL north shore is 33 -34 the south shore starts at 37 .1 falls hour 48 12z 850s -4 BL north shore 32 the south shore is 34 -35 in Nassau County .1 falls Suffolk county Precip arrives hour 48 12z 850 - 4 BL 35- 36 .1 falls Hour 54 18z 850 - 8 BL 33- 34 .1 falls Hour 60 0z 850 - 12 BL 29 .05 falls Long Island is prob 1 to 2 , your ground is frozen as you have snow cover 850s are cold and dropping cooling will be take place . So what comes will freshen up your pack .The N shore is closer to 2 - the south shore closer 1. But too many people don`t realize the N shore of Suffolk county too many paint them as some warm spot , they do very well with clippers as this one will deepen once into New England You will not rain Excellent analysis. I agree. The North shore of the county is also shielded by the bluffs. This helps to trap cold air. It likewise helps to shield them from a warmer southerly wind when they are light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12Z RGEM ensemble meteogram for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12Z RGEM ensemble meteogram for KNYC. rgem_ensemble_meteogram.jpg That shows KNYC near zero tomorrow morning on all of the members depicted. About 15 degrees below the NWS forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That shows KNYC near zero tomorrow morning on all of the members depicted. About 15 degrees below the NWS forecast. Euro is similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro is similiar The 12z ECMWF forecasts a low of -13.4°C or 8°F for tomorrow morning. The 12z GFS showed a low of around 14°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I know you live in Queens but in case you forgot there is a plenty of snow west of there. Having 9" of snow cover or having 11-12" isn't gonna change what & how it accumulates. I have 13" of snow cover. Another 1"-3" coming Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I have a feeling temperatures will sky dive tonight. We actually made it above freezing a bit above forecast but things are started to dead south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I have a feeling temperatures will sky dive tonight. We actually made it above freezing a bit above forecast but things are started to dead south. With fresh snowcover and completely clear skies? No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 With fresh snowcover and completely clear skies? No way. Nice one.... for a second I thought you were serious lol... then I show the wink I have a forecast low of 7... hmmmm could I make it down close to 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Going to be a cold one here in Dobbs Ferry. 25/12 now with clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Both the NAM and GFS show a 1-3 inch clipper for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This looks to be a nice coating..it'll be interesting to see the high-res models tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not really cooling off in the city. 25F and NO wind. Not ideal cooling conditions here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not really cooling off in the city. 25F and NO wind. Not ideal cooling conditions here. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ? People were referring to the RGEM with respect to the temps. Busting horribly right now for NYC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 People were referring to the RGEM with respect to the temps. Busting horribly right now for NYC proper. Oh, ok. Thought you had the days confused for the clipper lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NWS is gung ho on all snow for LI, not sure I buy it, the soundings from most guidance show an above freezing layer of 1200-1800ft, it may be real tough for this to be all snow from JFK east, LGA west its probably all snow. The RGEM still going fairly rainy east of that area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.