IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Now that we're inside of 48 hours I figured it would be worth it to make a seperate thread for this clipper, especially since the secondary threat late in the weekend is becoming more likely. The system looks quite potent and several models even close off at H5 but the majority track the surface low well into Upstate NY with limited moisture. Even so, a coating, perhaps more is possible. Some of the high res modeling is keying on a quick burst right around daybreak. The RGEM is still out of range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Upton has less than a inch areawide with more to the north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This is the kind of system where someone could get a heavy burst of snow and pick up a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Mt. Holly going 1-2" from SMQ North and under an inch South of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 UPTON CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAYS CLIPPER SYSTEMAS NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT.THE UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. EXPECTING TEMPSALONG THE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL. HAVE KEPT THIS MOSTLY SNOW -THOUGH A WET SNOW FOR THE COAST. PROBABILISTIC SNOW GRAPHICS ANDDATA ARE AVAILABLE AT: WEATHER.GOV/OKX/WINTERCLIPPER PULLS AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MASSIVE DROPIN TEMPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY. HAVE SOMECONCERN FOR A FLASH FREEZING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE DURING THE EVENINGCOMMUTE. FORECAST MID TEENS IN THE CITY BY 7 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Looks about right. Timing could be rough if it hits around rush hr like a few Friday's ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The suggestion was made for NWS to write in their forecasts something like a 30% chance of 1-3 inches for X amount of hours to convey probabilities. I believe this is a very good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Clipper looks more robust for the area than previous runs. Maybe 1-3 inches possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 What does the GFS show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Accumulations would extend onto Long Island 850s are cold 33 -34 its snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The RGEM has this as rain for the coast, I don't know if I buy it yet this far out but its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I wonder what would happen if we could get that leading shortwave to pump the breaks a little and wait for the second piece of energy to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The RGEM has this as rain for the coast, I don't know if I buy it yet this far out but its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 And the NWS has moderate snow likely and possibe four days out. I don't get it - will they? Don't get me wrong, I have the greatest respect for them and their service but more emphasis needs to be placed in probalistic versus deterministic forecasting in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The RGEM has this as rain for the coast, I don't know if I buy it yet this far out but its possible. It has mixed precip over NYC. Rgem always shows that when surface temps are 33-34 degrees. NYC area has a ton of snowcover, especially Queens and east. Snow will easily accumulate in these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 It has mixed precip over NYC. Rgem always shows that when surface temps are 33-34 degrees. NYC area has a ton of snowcover, especially Queens and east. Snow will easily accumulate in these areas. We may have missed out yesterday but we have plenty of snow on the ground out this way At this point a bust on the positive side would be a welcomed site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 RGEM is snow for the city west (though this is probably too warm as well).....an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It has mixed precip over NYC. Rgem always shows that when surface temps are 33-34 degrees. NYC area has a ton of snowcover, especially Queens and east. Snow will easily accumulate in these areas. I know you live in Queens but in case you forgot there is a plenty of snow west of there. Having 9" of snow cover or having 11-12" isn't gonna change what & how it accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 I know you live in Queens but in case you forgot there is a plenty of snow west of there. Having 9" of snow cover or having 11-12" isn't gonna change what & how it accumulates. For some reason the man refuses to acknowledge that anyone lives West of the Hudson River. In any event, the RGEM has a heavy burst early Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 For some reason the man refuses to acknowledge that anyone lives West of the Hudson River. In any event, the RGEM has a heavy burst early Friday morning I don't even know why I entertain that stuff but figured I had to respond. lol The RGEM shows a 2-4" event up this way. If things work out by this time next week our snowpack should be real nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Given the cold air pouring in after the clipper, everything freezes solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 I don't even know why I entertain that stuff but figured I had to respond. lol The RGEM shows a 2-4" event up this way. If things work out by this time next week our snowpack should be real nice! He may have received a few more inches over the last two days but I gurantee that ours will last longer. The bottom layer might as well be an iceberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 We're certain that there's no potential for this to become something less pitiful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I don't even know why I entertain that stuff but figured I had to respond. lol The RGEM shows a 2-4" event up this way. If things work out by this time next week our snowpack should be real nice! He may have received a few more inches over the last two days but I gurantee that ours will last longer. The bottom layer might as well be an iceberg. That's the truth, the bottom layer is solid ice and isn't going anyplace anytime soon. IMO, nickle and dime events make for a stronger pack but I have no science to back that up. So I'll welcome another 1-3, maybe 2-4 type deal on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 That's the truth, the bottom layer is solid ice and isn't going anyplace anytime soon. IMO, nickle and dime events make for a stronger pack but I have no science to back that up. So I'll welcome another 1-3, maybe 2-4 type deal on Friday. The key to any snowpack is the initial moisture content and then the temps that follow. So if you get a really wet snow like we did on Saturday followed by very cold temps it's going to become ice. Dry powdery snow on the other hand will melt much faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The key to any snowpack is the initial moisture content and then the temps that follow. So if you get a really wet snow like we did on Saturday followed by very cold temps it's going to become ice. Dry powdery snow on the other hand will melt much faster. The 6-8" that fell up here on saturday was powdery. This upcoming Sun-Mon storm looks to provide that icy seal on the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Looks like the Ukie is a few inches for NYC west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 The 6-8" that fell up here on saturday was powdery. This upcoming Sun-Mon storm looks to provide that icy seal on the snowpack. You probably benefited from colder temps up there. Down here it was the snowblower clogging variety. And then we flipped to rain at the end which added to the moisture content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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