dsaur Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Starting to think when all is said and done, we are gonna have to possibly worry about ice this way sometime next week. You guys should fare better on the fluffy side of things. With that said, a weaker system as depicted may keep the WAA at bay.. and allow us to get some good flakes. If that thing over-strengthens ice is on the table at some point. Eric made a good point that in a setup like this, almost always there is some sort of ice involved at some point. Yep, in a sprawling storm like depicted there will be ice But if I want my sleet, then I have to live with the ice threat.... and that's why I'm happy hearing Chris talk ice fest for Macon, because that means it's a big enough coverage for me to get the big sleet I've been waiting on for so long, lol. And if some snow mixes in I won't mind so much, as long as most of it is sleet And the line will waffle back and forth, so you and Chris will get snow and sleet too, no worries...if the storm actually happens, and if it's weak enough, and covers a wide enough area, and is south enough, and we get the wsw winds, and a fresh feed of cold air...and the Falcons win the super bowl, and pigs fly, and timing, we need timing for a phase, lol. But mostly we need to see it showing big two days out!! And better yet, let Al biny and across get the zr, and you and me and Chris, and Shack and El K get a nice mix of snow and sleet, lol. I don't want much...I've been a good boy, and I deserve a big sleet...I've been patient, and I haven't been one of Larry's whiners. But I can whine if it will help T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yep, in a sprawling storm like depicted there will be ice But if I want my sleet, then I have to live with the ice threat.... and that's why I'm happy hearing Chris talk ice fest for Macon, because that means it's a big enough coverage for me to get the big sleet I've been waiting on for so long, lol. And if some snow mixes in I won't mind so much, as long as most of it is sleet And the line will waffle back and forth, so you and Chris will get snow and sleet too, no worries...if the storm actually happens, and if it's weak enough, and covers a wide enough area, and is south enough, and we get the wsw winds, and a fresh feed of cold air...and the Falcons win the super bowl, and pigs fly, and timing, we need timing for a phase, lol. But mostly we need to see it showing big two days out!! And better yet, let Al biny and across get the zr, and you and me and Chris, and Shack and El K get a nice mix of snow and sleet, lol. I don't want much...I've been a good boy, and I deserve a big sleet...I've been patient, and I haven't been one of Larry's whiners. But I can whine if it will help T You can have my sleet These past two winters have been a sleet fest in Spartanburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yep, in a sprawling storm like depicted there will be ice But if I want my sleet, then I have to live with the ice threat.... and that's why I'm happy hearing Chris talk ice fest for Macon, because that means it's a big enough coverage for me to get the big sleet I've been waiting on for so long, lol. And if some snow mixes in I won't mind so much, as long as most of it is sleet And the line will waffle back and forth, so you and Chris will get snow and sleet too, no worries...if the storm actually happens, and if it's weak enough, and covers a wide enough area, and is south enough, and we get the wsw winds, and a fresh feed of cold air...and the Falcons win the super bowl, and pigs fly, and timing, we need timing for a phase, lol. But mostly we need to see it showing big two days out!! And better yet, let Al biny and across get the zr, and you and me and Chris, and Shack and El K get a nice mix of snow and sleet, lol. I don't want much...I've been a good boy, and I deserve a big sleet...I've been patient, and I haven't been one of Larry's whiners. But I can whine if it will help T Always good to read a post from Tony. Yeah, I think you covered all the ingredients that have to be in place for us to get winter wx down this way! There's no doubt that everything has to line up just right or it's no dice. All it takes is one small change in the dynamics to move you from the sweet spot to the rain zone. Perhaps that's what makes a good snowstorm so special. All of the factors have to be in place from the ground to the top of the clouds to make sure the snowflakes survive the fall. Of course, a slight warm nose that produces a little bit of sleet isn't a bad thing. It definitely makes for the best kind of sledding possible I'm pulling for as much of a board wide storm as possible, especially if we can get Delta, Shack, and the more southern latitudes involved. Six hours of snow followed by 3-4 hours of sleet sounds about right. Heck, I'll even hope for some white ground for Waycross. They deserve some, too! A lot can and will change on a D8 storm, but it sure is fun to dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z EPS: Wow, 29/51 with 2" + around the Mildands of SC. Some of those are a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z EPS: Wow, 29/51 with 2" + around the Mildands of SC. Some of those are a foot. Is that for the Day 8-9 system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z EPS: Wow, 29/51 with 2" + around the Mildands of SC. Some of tohose are a foot. Give me a rough total on EPS members for KCHS. at work until midnight so won't have time to check threads much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Give me a rough total on EPS members for KCHS. at work until midnight so won't have time to check threads much. Just for fun Stormsfury, this one gives you 20-30 next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yep, in a sprawling storm like depicted there will be ice But if I want my sleet, then I have to live with the ice threat.... and that's why I'm happy hearing Chris talk ice fest for Macon, because that means it's a big enough coverage for me to get the big sleet I've been waiting on for so long, lol. And if some snow mixes in I won't mind so much, as long as most of it is sleet And the line will waffle back and forth, so you and Chris will get snow and sleet too, no worries...if the storm actually happens, and if it's weak enough, and covers a wide enough area, and is south enough, and we get the wsw winds, and a fresh feed of cold air...and the Falcons win the super bowl, and pigs fly, and timing, we need timing for a phase, lol. But mostly we need to see it showing big two days out!! And better yet, let Al biny and across get the zr, and you and me and Chris, and Shack and El K get a nice mix of snow and sleet, lol. I don't want much...I've been a good boy, and I deserve a big sleet...I've been patient, and I haven't been one of Larry's whiners. But I can whine if it will help T I hear ya, bud!! I really like the potential next week. No doubt. I agree with you, SCREAMS ICE down my way. That will all be worked out later, IF** the storm threat is actually real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like the "mean" is just under 1.5" here. 28/51 members showing stuff. Mostly light, but there are some VERY hungry dawgs in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Give me a rough total on EPS members for KCHS. at work until midnight so won't have time to check threads much. I'll send you a link to KCHS when it comes out through private message... from memory, there were some big ones that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Better strike by day 9. All models agree on the warming in the day 9+. It probably will go back to +PNA pattern down the road but it will take atleast week or so to get that back and by then it will be after March 10th. But like Grit/Shawn mentioned there are a couple of opportunities day 5-9 that are showing promise. It will be cold just need some moisture to get in the way of the cold... Edit: For RDU, the mean is 5". It has 2.5' for the day 5-6 potential and another 2.5" for the day 8/9 potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 More numbers out. 49/51 from EPS with any kind of Wintry weather through the period around KCAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z GFS just turned our coach into a pumpkin. Has a southern slider on Thursday that blanks most of GA and the Carolinas...then just squashes the weekend system into nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I swear the 18Z GFS was close to a triple phaser... Call me crazy but this is what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 FWIW (not much), the 12z JMA has a southern monster at 192hrs. 18z Navy also has a good look at 180hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good news is that the 18Z GEFS has not one but two strong signals for a Miller A winter storm 2/26-8! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Always good to read a post from Tony. Yeah, I think you covered all the ingredients that have to be in place for us to get winter wx down this way! There's no doubt that everything has to line up just right or it's no dice. All it takes is one small change in the dynamics to move you from the sweet spot to the rain zone. Perhaps that's what makes a good snowstorm so special. All of the factors have to be in place from the ground to the top of the clouds to make sure the snowflakes survive the fall. Of course, a slight warm nose that produces a little bit of sleet isn't a bad thing. It definitely makes for the best kind of sledding possible I'm pulling for as much of a board wide storm as possible, especially if we can get Delta, Shack, and the more southern latitudes involved. Six hours of snow followed by 3-4 hours of sleet sounds about right. Heck, I'll even hope for some white ground for Waycross. They deserve some, too! A lot can and will change on a D8 storm, but it sure is fun to dream! Hey, El K, nice to see a post from you too We haven't had much to smile about so far except for cold temps. And it's crazy to get a pattern where it's cold in Canada, wet in the underneath, with no blocking, no indices working to save us, and yet we are still looking at some chances because there is a ridge that moves back and forth and though it's mostly ride by's that mostly miss, sometimes, like today, the cold hits us head on. And year like this one you have to time it...down to a T That's why all the models, and analogs, can't determine what the nature lady might do, lol. I love to watch the weather confound the attempts to wrestle it into submission. Some times we still have to look outside, but for you and me it's been rain...again. One of these will run underneath and catch the cold before it can move out, and we'll get ours. I can't believe it's been since 2005 since I've gotten to do some real sledding. That bit of ice and sleet last year didn't do much for the ground, and spring snows aren't firm enough...it's got to be sleet I'm not wanting to stick you in the zr, but I've noticed since I've been down here, how narrow the band can be, if it finds the cursed lands below the end of the earth, at I 20 The airport can be getting a mix, mostly snow, I'm getting 3 inches of sleet/ with some snow, and from Barnesville south you're getting it all, with mostly zr with sleet. I'm always so aware of what's going on up there hundreds of feet, because the wind blows and the precip changes, lol. and 10 miles or so can make such a difference. I've notice the direction of the cads has been further north. It takes longer for the cold to get in here the last few years, and usually it just blasts in here. It's almost like the highs are a bit drunk, and can't like up with the shute, lol. Like last year it barely got down to Candyman before the event was over, and I had an inch of rain before the freezing started, and pretty quickly it went to grapel so I got saved from Augusta style z horrors. I don't know how many times down here I've seen heavy, heavy rain start mixing snow in, because the waa is out fought by the cad, but not in recent years. You may not see any on the ground, but you saw snow. All the action is north. The xmas storm, the big Atl snow, even last year, when I got some, it was crumbs off Atl.s plate. Even with blocking it still takes some maneuvering to get us a big strike down this way. And it just seems, though Larry will probably dissuade me of the notion, that the 70's and 80's gave us more wide spread action, except for the occasional blizzard, where everybody plays, and we all win a prize, lol. Seems like there were just more decent gom lows with the right track, finding cold air, and now, not so much. Here I am in the mid 20's and the sky is clear. That' so danged southern and it stinks, lol. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 What's the temperatures look like over the next 7-10 days? Return to cold? This cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I hear ya, bud!! I really like the potential next week. No doubt. I agree with you, SCREAMS ICE down my way. That will all be worked out later, IF** the storm threat is actually real. I watch you working it on your video's, Chris, and you've got the right attitude, and I can tell you want it, for yourself and all of us. And if you nail the big one, when it hits you'll be a folk hero, lol, Like that gal in Atl that called the blizzard a week before it hit, is to me Maybe not Christmas storm CR famous, but some will remember you decades from now. There are boys and girls in Macon who will idolize you if you can get another snow like in 73, or just a good 3 inch sleet I don't know if the met down there in 73 has a statue, but I wouldn't doubt it, lol. And it could all be yours Come on, man, bring this one home...to me, and you, and El K, Shack and all the little boys and girls of all ages who are yearning to slide free...your destiny awaits you!!! Tony No pressure.....no...really..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What's the temperatures look like over the next 7-10 days? Return to cold? This cold? Not this cold, but pretty cold for this time of year. No day will be above average on high temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What's the temperatures look like over the next 7-10 days? Return to cold? This cold? Euro has RDU at 52 on Sunday and that's as warm as it gets, highs on later days 41 (few and far between) most highs in the 30s...cold air dominates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro has RDU at 52 on Sunday and that's as warm as it gets, highs on later days 41 (few and far between) most highs in the 30s...cold air dominates. NWS has dropped the high down to 48 from 58 this morning(for my house). Looking at the 18z NAM it would have the high for RDU no higher than 40. Looks the residue CAD will make a fight. It will be interesting to see if that drops any more. Regardless there will be a big range of temps setting up across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We have a little model war going on right now w/ the possible Tuesday/Wednesday storm. The GFS has consistently been wide right. The 0z and 12z euro have snow for a few in the SE. The canadian 0z had snow for some in the SE but the 12z was wide right. It'll be interesting which way this one swings over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I've noticed the "big dog" (2-27/28) has downgraded some on GFS. Yet the 12z JMA is is still safe to say the upstate and midlands of SC, including the piedmont still has a chance for a "whopper" storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Can we find more wintry weather, or is back to drawing board? Hint Hint for me, I am FIRED up about this pattern and the potential. All new video is up. Thanks for watching, sharing and liking my page. Keep spreading the word please. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Better strike by day 9. All models agree on the warming in the day 9+. It probably will go back to +PNA pattern down the road but it will take atleast week or so to get that back and by then it will be after March 10th. But like Grit/Shawn mentioned there are a couple of opportunities day 5-9 that are showing promise. It will be cold just need some moisture to get in the way of the cold... Edit: For RDU, the mean is 5". It has 2.5' for the day 5-6 potential and another 2.5" for the day 8/9 potential. It sounds like most folks think we have a great chance at some winter storms next week. But the specifics on the models seem to be putting out lower numbers now. I thought the day 8/9 storm was supposed to be a big dog, not 2.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It sounds like most folks think we have a great chance at some winter storms next week. But the specifics on the models seem to be putting out lower numbers now. I thought the day 8/9 storm was supposed to be a big dog, not 2.5 inches. Do you really want to see a big dog storm shown this far in advance? No I didn't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Do you really want to see a big dog storm shown this far in advance? No I didn't think so. Maybe not. Maybe the specifics will get better with the models as we get closer. Right now it seems folks are excited about the look and the threat, but the specifics on the model runs seem kind of meh right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Do you really want to see a big dog storm shown this far in advance? No I didn't think so. bingo. suppressed is where we want it, if it showed a big hit now we would be scared to death because of the inevitable NW trend. patience people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 At this point, certain features can swing hundreds of miles in any direction from run to run. As long as we see the main elements still in place, we will have a good chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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