burgertime Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 New member here. I enjoy reading everyone's interpretation of next weeks "big dog" I hear storms furry has a good rep as well as burger. One question for you all. Is the models worth a paid subscription to? It depends on how far you want to take it. I think they are invaluable for learning but you can certainly learn with free maps. Paid maps just make it easier to understand everything since it does a lot of the work for you....so I take that back paid maps probably aren't the best for full on learning, but if you don't have time like some of us do on the board it's worth it, to me anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 All I have to say is I don't get winter Wx IMBY then nobody can. Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Welcome Storm! IMO, I just ride the Disco that is put out by others who pay $$ to gain access to model runs However, below is a great thread that lists a ton of free sites plus some other great info about our little slice on the net. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29651-weather-references-and-newbie-information/?hl=%2Bnew New member here. I enjoy reading everyone's interpretation of next weeks "big dog" I hear storms furry has a good rep as well as burger. One question for you all. Is the models worth a paid subscription to? Matthew East does a great job this morning talking about current and into the next week Possible Big Dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Not to rain on the parade here because I want this to happen as much as anybody else but aren't these GOM storm systems the ones that are sometimes prone to kicking up storms along the Gulf that rob the Carolinas of moisture transport which drastically cuts down on our QPF? Of all the concerns to have about a D9 storm, this would have to be one of the least. Once we get within 36 hours, then we can focus on Gulf convection, warm noses, dynamic cooling, ice crystal growth, and birds eating off the ground. Wouldn't worry about it yet. All kidding aside, different configurations/speed of Gulf convection affect moisture transport differently. Sometimes, it can actually enhance it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Of all the concerns to have about a D9 storm, this would have to be one of the least. Once we get within 36 hours, then we can focus on Gulf convection, warm noses, dynamic cooling, ice crystal growth, and birds eating off the ground. Wouldn't worry about it yet. All kidding aside, different configurations/speed of Gulf convection affect moisture transport differently. Sometimes, it can actually enhance it. Also it usually means the difference between 3 inches and 5 inches...or 6 inches and 10 inches. In the grand scheme of things it usually just means you loose some of your moisture but you still get a good storm overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Also it usually means the difference between 3 inches and 5 inches...or 6 inches and 10 inches. In the grand scheme of things it usually just means you loose some of your moisture but you still get a good storm overall. Yes sir. Getting the good storm is the only thing we need to worry about imo, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On the day 9 storm all we need to be concerned with at this point is make sure something shows up on the models. We don't need to concern ourselves w/ details this far out. If the 12z suite shows any part of a storm, I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 6z GFS is a southern slider and goes OTS...gives snow from AL to southeast NC...and about 3 inches to most of NC. At this points that's probably where we want it this far out. Like everyone said last night this is pretty awesome agreement....but I remember a few times this winter we had storms that far out and days in a row with agreement only at crunch time to have nothing so of course giant grain of salt all that. Are you referring to the Tuesday storm or the D9 threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Of all the concerns to have about a D9 storm, this would have to be one of the least. Once we get within 36 hours, then we can focus on Gulf convection, warm noses, dynamic cooling, ice crystal growth, and birds eating off the ground. Wouldn't worry about it yet. All kidding aside, different configurations/speed of Gulf convection affect moisture transport differently. Sometimes, it can actually enhance it. Also it usually means the difference between 3 inches and 5 inches...or 6 inches and 10 inches. In the grand scheme of things it usually just means you loose some of your moisture but you still get a good storm overall. Thanks folks. I know it's way down the list of worries as it's not even a given that we will have the system develop. I just remember this kind of thing happening to us before and thought that I would get some thoughts on it from you weather gurus. Again, thanks for the input. It's much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If I could cash in all the good D9 looks I've gotten this winter, I wouldn't have been able to leave my house since New Year's, lol. That said, I don't really even know what I'd do if PDK got 2 feet like that map is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just ridiculous, 95% of the conus is below freezing... BTW...the cut off out in the SW keeps ticking more and more east each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We need the ridging down in MX to be a little weaker.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like some changes on the 12z gfs...The cut off out west is coming east earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like some changes on the 12z gfs...The cut off out west is coming east earlier. Yeah, it's a strung out mess this run, but I like the trend on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Just ridiculous, 95% of the conus is below freezing... BTW...the cut off out in the SW keeps ticking more and more east each run. Show us those warm maps you had the other day !? I'm thinking the 12z looks good, from what I can see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Squashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We need the ridging down in MX to be a little weaker.... What a ridge in the west though! I like where we are at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Squashed Yep but overall I like the look. All of next week looks real interesting. Edit: All that and it's still going to pull out some snow for the SE on that Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I am fine with suppressed right at this time. But it sounds like that could have just been a wonky run by the GFS and a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 What a ridge in the west though! I like where we are at this point! We all know that watching the models at long time ranges is fraught with peril, but what keeps showing up is a big, cold sfc high that isn't racing quickly off to Iceland, and a storm track across the south...even though the models are going about it in slightly different ways. At hr144, the UKMet has the low out west over Vegas...it is healthier looking and slower than the GFS on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Canadian has a bomb for Georgia and SC around hr 222! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We all know that watching the models at long time ranges is fraught with peril, but what keeps showing up is a big, cold sfc high that isn't racing quickly off to Iceland, and a storm track across the south...even though the models are going about it in slightly different ways. At hr144, the UKMet has the low out west over Vegas...it is healthier looking and slower than the GFS on this run That, my friend, is key. That must continue to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Canadian has a bomb for Georgia and SC around hr 222! UKMet and Canadian didn't squash the California low like the GFS...let's see what the Euro says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like the Canadian had a winter mess for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1058 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 22 2015 - 12Z THU FEB 26 2015 RELIED ON THE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z/19 ECENS AND GEFS MEANS AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDEPOST THIS MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST CYCLE. THE MAIN THEMES REMAIN THE SAME: CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND PRIMARY STORM TRACK ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH. THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STAY ON THE DRY, MILDER SIDE OF THE BALANCE--THOUGH A LITTLE WESTWARD BLEEDING OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL COOL THOSE REGIONS BRIEFLY. MORE SNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN MID- TO LATE-WEEK. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1058 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015VALID 12Z SUN FEB 22 2015 - 12Z THU FEB 26 2015RELIED ON THE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z/19 ECENS ANDGEFS MEANS AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDEPOST THIS MEDIUM-RANGE FORECASTCYCLE. THE MAIN THEMES REMAIN THE SAME: CONTINUED TRANSPORT OFARCTIC AIR INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND PRIMARY STORM TRACKANCHORED TO THE SOUTH. THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STAY ONTHE DRY, MILDER SIDE OF THE BALANCE--THOUGH A LITTLE WESTWARDBLEEDING OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONAND GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL COOL THOSE REGIONSBRIEFLY. MORE SNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTALPLAIN MID- TO LATE-WEEK.CISCO Even though it's at a longer lead, I believe I'm more excited for the storm at the end of the week than mon/tues. The early one next week at this point doesn't seem to be too strong, and there's no great cold transport currently modeled (and another lakes low). The one at the end of the week has that huge sprawling high that currently just tracks east right along with the gulf low. It's beautiful. All the models have that same kind of idea. Stinks it's over a week out but hopefully those large scale features stay consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Even though it's at a longer lead, I believe I'm more excited for the storm at the end of the week than mon/tues. The early one next week at this point doesn't seem to be too strong, and there's no great cold transport currently modeled (and another lakes low). The one at the end of the week has that huge sprawling high that currently just tracks east right along with the gulf low. It's beautiful. All the models have that same kind of idea. Stinks it's over a week out but hopefully those large scale features stay consistent. I agree with those exact thoughts. It's highly encouraging to see the WPC say something like: THE MAIN THEMES REMAIN THE SAME: CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND PRIMARY STORM TRACK ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH. We are all pretty much forced all in for next week some time as Spring is right around the corner. Ending the season with a bang for everyone would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Even though it's at a longer lead, I believe I'm more excited for the storm at the end of the week than mon/tues. The early one next week at this point doesn't seem to be too strong, and there's no great cold transport currently modeled (and another lakes low). The one at the end of the week has that huge sprawling high that currently just tracks east right along with the gulf low. It's beautiful. All the models have that same kind of idea. Stinks it's over a week out but hopefully those large scale features stay consistent. I agree for the most part but the GFS and Canadian bring warm air up over the eastern half of NC and turn it to rain. If it's already showing rain for those portions this far out it's not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like some light snow for NGA, upstate and into NC by 18z TUE and 00z WED. VERY light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like some light snow for NGA, upstate and into NC by 18z TUE and 00z WED. VERY light. Yep was even closer to something big for NC....should be something to keep an eye on through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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