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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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That is a frothing of the mouth, rabid big dog. LOL

Indeed!

 

Strange event shown there.  Looks like a Miller B or something.  Really cold at the start with insane teens, then we lose the cold air at the end, but the storm is about over by that time.  Super-CAD delivers, though.

Haven't seen it fully roll out, but did notice that it was a little quicker with the PV low compared to the UKMet and GFS, so the Miller B would make sense in that the sfc high would be a bit further to the east from a timing perspective

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I'm curious to see what Stormsfury has to say about the possibilities.

Considering how off the guidance was with the last Several storms, i'm being quite reserved at this time. If that actually verifies, I'll have my own Cantore celebration.

Aside from that, actually the pattern is looking quite conducive for a winter season finale. Personally, I do believe we will end the winter season with a bang before the pattern flips to a more spring-like pattern. We need to cash in before the change, and the next 7-10 days are likely our best chance all season.

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I'm curious to see what Stormsfury has to say about the possibilities.

 

I love to see Stormsfury post.  I feel like we are 100% out of it unless he is amped up about it.

He has a great track-record... sadly I jinxed him recently saying something like "definitely winter precip down to chs"

 

Then the 00z models came out 48 hrs before and screwed us both.

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Considering how off the guidance was with the last Several storms, i'm being quite reserved at this time. If that actually verifies, I'll have my own Cantore celebration.

Aside from that, actually the pattern is looking quite conducive for a winter season finale. Personally, I do believe we will end the winter season with a bang before the pattern flips to a more spring-like pattern. We need to cash in before the change, and the next 7-10 days are likely our best chance all season.

 

TY TY TY.  I think it looks conductive too.  The amped up nutty solution from the 18/00 GFS I doubt (too strong of a Low imo).  The GGEM has quite an ice storm over this way.. and very close to you even.  I don't see a way that whatever kind of system develops in the Gulf is able to cut though.  There seems to be rare agreement between models that h500 won't let it happen (the cut).

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TY TY TY. I think it looks conductive too. The amped up nutty solution from the 18/00 GFS I doubt. The GGEM has quite an ice storm over this way.. and very close to you even. I don't see a way that whatever kind of system develops in the Gulf is able to cut though. There seems to be rare agreement between models that h500 won't let it happen (the cut).

That's been a rarity in itself this winter. Continuity. The fact that the upcoming week has that look of the players in place, maybe at the right time lends some credence to the overall synoptics. I will be following things closely and see how things unfold. If I feel good about the chances, i will sound the siren when i'm more certain.

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That's been a rarity in itself this winter. Continuity. The fact that the upcoming week has that look of the players in place, maybe at the right time lends some credence to the overall synoptics. I will be following things closely and see how things unfold. If I feel good about the chances, i will sound the siren when i'm more certain.

 

Definitely, some interesting times ahead.  Thanks for your input!   

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6z GFS is a southern slider and goes OTS...gives snow from AL to southeast NC...and about 3 inches to most of NC. At this points that's probably where we want it this far out. Like everyone said last night this is pretty awesome agreement....but I remember a few times this winter we had storms that far out and days in a row with agreement only at crunch time to have nothing so of course giant grain of salt all that. 

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6z GFS is a southern slider and goes OTS...gives snow from AL to southeast NC...and about 3 inches to most of NC. At this points that's probably where we want it this far out. Like everyone said last night this is pretty awesome agreement....but I remember a few times this winter we had storms that far out and days in a row with agreement only at crunch time to have nothing so of course giant grain of salt all that.

I think the Tuesday system still has legs ! Misses most of NC, but trended N/wetter from 18z! On the 6z GFS and yes, Friday is exactly what we want right now! Next week will be rockin, with the appetizer this Sat!
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