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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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So, we gotta get the weekend system out of the way to get the mid week system out of the way to get to the late week system. Got it. :)

 

Just the weekend, we will get 3-5" in the over running on Tuesday then a 6-10" from the one and only true coastal of the winter next Thursday/Friday.  Pattern breaks down that weekend, by Monday March 2nd we are in the mid-60's and I won't see you fools until next Dec... :frostymelt:

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Just the weekend, we will get 3-5" in the over running on Tuesday then a 6-10" from the one and only true coastal of the winter next Thursday/Friday.  Pattern breaks down that weekend, by Monday March 2nd we are in the mid-60's and I won't see you fools until next Dec... :frostymelt:

I doubt the pattern breaks down completely. Probably just a reloading period. Don't forget the analogs man. See you at least through the end of March.

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Right after I typed that, I look outside and it's snowing...book it

 

lol Grit.  It HAS to mean something doesn't it?....

 

What exactly are you looking at that's different than the last several storms in those maps?  I see banana highs it looks like, a 50/50 low and western ridging right on the coast.  Anything else we should look for to hang on in the modeling? 

 

Edit: to also say if it hangs on, you start the thread.  You were first!

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We ALL be better ALL IN on the next 2 weeks....after that, forget it!

 

I think we always have a shot at something in March.  Is it likely, no (well except for the mountains maybe), but the last few years we've been getting some ULL's to swing through the area so I don't think it's completely off the table.  It will just have to be a dynamically driven event.  I'm still holding out hope for a traditional CAD and a Miller A in the meantime :)

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lol Grit.  It HAS to mean something doesn't it?....

 

What exactly are you looking at that's different than the last several storms in those maps?  I see banana highs it looks like, a 50/50 low and western ridging right on the coast.  Anything else we should look for to hang on in the modeling? 

 

Edit: to also say if it hangs on, you start the thread.  You were first!

 

Without blocking, we need great timing (like Monday where storm moves in quickly after cold air moves in) or we need what the Euro shows which is a big, sprawling PV low to sink down and slowly rotate across the Great Lakes and into SE Canada.  Sfc high pressure tucks in behind it.  Baja / southwest low in sstream kicks moisture out into the cold - sfc low in gulf.  Sounds good on paper.

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:lol:  Not for mby   :P    I'm usually out by the end of Feb (minus a very few and far between exceptions), so it's just a few days earlier than usual   :)     

I think if we get that runner over the weekend, something might grow up on the weakness left behind...say Mon night/ Tues? With some cold air still in place....so far everything is too far north, but sometime, something will scoot underneath, with some cold air in place.  You and Jose might get to dance yet!  Just keep those portals closed, for my sake, if nothing else, until say mid July, lol, or late Aug into Sept would actually be better :)  I never give up on winter until April, as I've seen to many late season episodes, but I'd be happy for you to keep the heat at bay until just before a cool fall.  A week or two of warm weather is plenty for me, lol. Tony

 

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