Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Weenieism...LOL! In all seriousness it's all going to depend on the ridge placement out west as has everything else this winter. If that ridge is further west or flatter it'll cut imo. Yeah, the ridge is tall enough and in just the right location to allow the PV to press and keep the system suppressed. Since there's no blocking, it is going to depend greatly on the ridging -- where it sets up and how it's shaped/oriented/configured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 There is some GEFS support for the tuesday /Wednesday period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 There is some GEFS support for the tuesday /Wednesday period I actually don't hate this threat. I would like to see a better representation of a cold air feed, but the fact that there's no real system on the Op GFS (or it's just squashed) is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I actually don't hate this threat. I would like to see a better representation of a cold air feed, but the fact that there's no real system on the Op GFS (or it's just squashed) is fine. I don't hate it either. The main problem I have is the GL low that seems to be a constant the past 2 years. There is a 1028 hp that is being pushed NE by the GL low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The GEFS mean still looks good has a SLP off the SE coast at 162...mean snowfall. CMC-ENS looks the same, give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The GEFS mean still looks good has a SLP off the SE coast at 162...mean snowfall. CMC-ENS looks the same, give or take. Looks like the Euro isn't going to back off that solution either looking at things setting up in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I like next week too. I just don't know which days to like I think all eyes will be on another buried baja low and when/if it kicks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The trough placement on the GEFS is about perfect for us, only issue with that is that it's the GEFS and it's usually a little to far east, let's see what the EPS looks like. Nothing is stopping this from cutting though, if it's a strong SLP it will probably be another miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Earlier from WPC... ONCE THEENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST ROCKETS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEXT TUESDAYAND WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER OVERRUNNING EVENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATIONIS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH MORE SNOW POSSIBLEOVER THE PIEDMONT AND ENTIRE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN NORTH OF THECAROLINAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I like next week too. I just don't know which days to like I think all eyes will be on another buried baja low and when/if it kicks out Yeah, so tired of these pure northern stream systems, it was nice to see the GFS finally send out the whole low, but it was just a couple days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm 0-2 trying to guess where the Euro is going. For next week it's a lot weaker and 5h just looks like a mess. Might be some hope if that energy can keep dropping south out to 132 and weak low in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro was close but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The cut off get's left behind, that's shared by all the globals and the GEFS but it does dig the NS energy enough for a weak wave, ILM get's 8" of snow. Would be a shame to not atleast see one SLP track across the northern golf and round the corner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The cut off get's left behind, that's shared by all the globals and the GEFS but it does dig the NS energy enough for a weak wave, ILM get's 8" of snow. Would be a shame to not atleast see one SLP track across the northern golf and round the corner... and out comes the cutoff just in time to not give us a huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 and out comes the cutoff just in time to not give us a huge storm. Just like the GFS...but this is way out in la la land. For next Tuesday it appears there is a chance again with another wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I love that the Euro shows a HUGE PV up north and it's still going to have that energy trying to plow into it. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro looks pretty good at 186 (far as I can see right now)...does it go to crap after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The cut off get's left behind, that's shared by all the globals and the GEFS but it does dig the NS energy enough for a weak wave, ILM get's 8" of snow. Would be a shame to not atleast see one SLP track across the northern golf and round the corner... Isn't this where we need it to be at this time frame with the usual NW trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro looks pretty good at 186 (far as I can see right now)...does it go to crap after that? It's fine, the southern low is in Tx and is weakening, nothing drops down to phase with it. Atleast through 198. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro looks pretty good at 186 (far as I can see right now)...does it go to crap after that? Energy heads north somehow and just fizzles out. Energy behind it might get us there....too bad it's out past 200 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro is about to go beast mode on the SE @216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Isn't this where we need it to be at this time frame with the usual NW trends? Yeah, it looks fine, just depends on how far the northern stream energy digs, how strong it gets, which at 6 it won't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's fine, the southern low is in Tx and is weakening, nothing drops down to phase with it. Atleast through 198. Energy heads north somehow and just fizzles out. Energy behind it might get us there....too bad it's out past 200 lol. The PV drop and sfc high pressure looks really good. It looks like what happens is there are multiple pieces of energy rotating into the baja low and it gets sheared....translation - next week is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 All globals going w/ big storm in the day 9/10 timeframe. Where have we heard that before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The PV drop and sfc high pressure looks really good. It looks like what happens is there are multiple pieces of energy rotating into the baja low and it gets sheared....translation - next week is interesting Yeah, I agree, we looks to go in the freezer again, just need some precip, a lot of it, to ram into it. We need to get to this weekend to get this Sat/Sun storm developed and out of the way, see how the models handle that and what effects it has on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Isn't this where we need it to be at this time frame with the usual NW trends? That's what I was thinking. If the systems next week are south of us on the models right now, then that might be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Snowing in Jackson, MS and Birmingham at 216 timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 So, we gotta get the weekend system out of the way to get the mid week system out of the way to get to the late week system. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Snowing in Jackson, MS and Birmingham at 216 timeframe widespread 2-4 for much of the south on this run. Models want to give us one last big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 So, we gotta get the weekend system out of the way to get the mid week system out of the way to get to the late week system. Got it. Gotta admit though, this is the most active models have been all winter with legit possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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