rduwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 keep it south and east until 72 hrs out and then let the nw trend do work. i love seeing it suppressed this far out. Or even 36 hours like this last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 keep it south and east until 72 hrs out and then let the nw trend do work. i love seeing it suppressed this far out. Those ensembles look EXACTLY the way we want them at a week out. You factor in the certain NW trend and we've got a storm on our hands. The question as always though, will any cold air be left by mid next week? It was a nice surprise to get a bunch of sleet rather than freezing rain/rain yesterday. But I'm still hungry for some snow. Just not the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Those ensembles look EXACTLY the way we want them at a week out. You factor in the certain NW trend and we've got a storm on our hands. The question as always though, will any cold air be left by mid next week? It was a nice surprise to get a bunch of sleet rather than freezing rain/rain yesterday. But I'm still hungry for some snow. Just not the same. usually when the models give coastal sc snow you know points clt east are in the money because it always comes nw. it being 6-7 days out probably means the models will lose it over the next few days but the overall pattern looks great for a shot at a big dog. i agree that the sleet storm was great, but i want 8" of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yep, watching early next week like everyone else. Models are chaotic with how they want to create a storm (northern stream, southern stream, or both), but the storm track is draped across the south during this timeframe on the models, which would obviously be good if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yep, watching early next week like everyone else. Models are chaotic with how they want to create a storm (northern stream, southern stream, or both), but the storm track is draped across the south during this timeframe on the models, which would obviously be good if it's right. The GFS/Euro looked pure northern stream to me, this has been a big suckfest with the southern stream this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Here's the ECMWF ensemble mean MSLP at day 7. It's a nice Miller A look. There are plenty of individual ensemble members on the east side of the mean low, so a northwest trend over the coming days would be nice. For my sake though, let's keep the trends small instead of jumping 300 miles like some storm did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's hard to see why this won't trend NW, unless the ridge out west is progressive or sets up east of where it's been most of the season. Any concern with temps here? I don't see a good high pressure in a good spot, which is always a red flag for me. I do see a GL low, though, on the EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The GFS/Euro looked pure northern stream to me, this has been a big suckfest with the southern stream this winter. Yes, but the previous Euro run brought out a southern system. Also, the CMC had significant southern stream moisture, but was farther north. That's why I said it seems chaotic. We need to see some consistency regarding how the storm will form before taking the next step...but yeah, the latest trends have been to more of a northern stream oriented system. One other note, this previous ice storm wouldn't have been nearly as moist without the moisture coming off of that baja low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 How's the 12z for Tuesday? Not much chatter!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 How's the 12z for Tuesday? Not much chatter!?Suppressed right now Mack, which is good .Funny there's a blip of moisture showing up in the Upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 How's the 12z for Tuesday? Not much chatter!? 12z gfs is coming in south and east. We've got this one right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 How's the 12z for Tuesday? Not much chatter!? Piss poor. Cold and dry. Frontal zone activates off the coast and another big cold shot comes in. It sets up the next Sunday storm well, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS has a big dog at 213 *WOOF* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Day 9 on 12z gfs FTW!!!! LOL! Edit: Burger beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Day 9 on 12z gfs FTW!!!! LOL! Edit: Burger beat me to it. It's under D10, so that's a start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's under D10, so that's a start! Next step is to get it under day 7.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Next step is to get it under day 7.... Yep, I think that's the right progression. 10, 7, 5, 3, 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS has a big dog at 213 *WOOF* Did it push back the Tues/Wed chance, or is it a whole other system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Did it push back the Tues/Wed chance, or is it a whole other system? It's another system. The Tuesday one is now a fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yep, I think that's the right progression. 10, 7, 5, 3, 1. No the next step is find something , anything that will keep it from cutting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS has a big dog at 213 *WOOF* There's already no wiggle room with this storm for central NC. Worried that the NW trend we usually see with these systems is going to ruin this one unless the cold air comes in stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 No the next step is find something , anything that will keep it from cutting Yeah, I think that's called "next winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah, I think that's called "next winter". Hahaha good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nada on the 12 cmc for Tuesday. The lakes low is a killer. Edit: 12z cmc does have the day 9 storm. Edit 2: 12z cmc is a major storm for most of the SE. Ala, Ga, SC and NC. Too bad it's day 9/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Next step is to get it under day 7.... after this last storm make that 7 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I like the idea of a late Feb end-of-winter storm. I think this one may have some legs... we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I like the idea of a late Feb end-of-winter storm. I think this one may have some legs... we'll see. I agree...Pattern change right around that time. That'd be the way to end this winter. BIg storm, then spring pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Anyone care to chime in on what would keep the day 8-10 storm from cutting . No 50/50 no -NAO are we putting our hope into a well timed PV flex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Anyone care to chime in on what would keep the day 8-10 storm from cutting . No 50/50 no -NAO are we putting our hope into a well timed PV flex? Weenieism...LOL! In all seriousness it's all going to depend on the ridge placement out west as has everything else this winter. If that ridge is further west or flatter it'll cut imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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