DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Probably won't see this in my forecast for another 20 years. awesome. hope a few places in nc can make it to zero thurs night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This weekend system? 48 Sunday Rain Sunday night 28 Snow? Looks like a mix all weekend. No Accumulations with lows in low 20's Saturday Night? FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDYWITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COLD WITH LOWSAROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT..SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LITTLE OR NOSNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT..SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THEMORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT AS COOLWITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT..SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT..MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS INTHE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well, we found winter for some, but can we do it again? How about we let more have some wintry weather as well. My thoughts on where the pattern is heading, and how we can all enjoy winter, while it lasts. -Chris Thanks for watching folks. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Probably won't see this in my forecast for another 20 years. Once in a generation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Precip is coming at this time and temps rise to about 30F for western NC during heart of precip. 850's are borderline, could be snow to sleet to rain type deal, but heck it might not even rain, as precip shuts off late afternoon Saturday. It's a sneaky event, could be a fun one for you guys...Temps were suppose to rise around here alot more than they actually did, and nobody saw Lookouts area getting a devastating ice storm, with yesterday's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Once in a generation.That looks like 1985 col, I think!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This has a nice look w/ the stj/possible 50/50 low. With the pattern possibly breaking down in early March, wouldn't be abnormal for a big storm to precede a winter ending warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That looks like 1985 col, I think!? Feb 94 and Feb 96 has some wicked cold shots that put highs in the upper teens and lows in the low 0's for a lot of the WNC piedmont as I recall. SInce then, we haven't touched that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I remember March 1-2, 1980 was that way. I Was 14 at that time. Sleet bomb Saturday the 1st, followed by coastal with heavy snow starting mid-morning Sunday the 2nd. I remember the temperatures down around 11degees at the height of his he storm. Would love to see one of those again. Schools were closed for the whole week even with 60 degree weather the entire week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Feb 94 and Feb 96 has some wicked cold shots that put highs in the upper teens and lows in the low 0's for a lot of the WNC piedmont as I recall. SInce then, we haven't touched that low. How cold did yall get last year? We had six single digit nights with the two lowest at -1 and 4 so I figured yall were close to that. As far as highs in the teens that is impressive. I think we had a couple around 20 last year but our last teen high was probably 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 How cold did yall get last year? We had six single digit nights with the two lowest at -1 and 4 so I figured yall were close to that. As far as highs in the teens that is impressive. I think we had a couple around 20 last year but our last teen high was probably 2003. Never got below 0 around the piedmont...towards the higher elevations, yes. I had 3 single digit nights, lowest was 6. Lowest high was 24.3 which even that was the lowest high I can recall in several years. Haven't been below 0 since 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hit -4.4 here in Colfax last winter. Snow on the ground and low area. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 0z NAM holds serve on the cold air... maybe a hair warmer in some areas (talking a degree or two) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015021800/nam_T2m_seus_13.png EDIT: Friday a tad higher too on temps http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015021800/nam_T2m_seus_21.png?_=1424227225080 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hit -4.4 here in Colfax last winter. Snow on the ground and low area. TW Yeah that'll do it. We were bare during those events. Not this time! So I'm crossing fingers for a sub-zero reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That looks like 1985 col, I think!? Looks like Wilmington in 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Also, I believe I heard Greg Fishel say 17 is the coldest recorded daytime high ever for RDU, so we could match that or break that on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 0z NAM holds serve on the cold air... maybe a hair warmer in some areas (talking a degree or two) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015021800/nam_T2m_seus_13.png EDIT: Friday a tad higher too on temps http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015021800/nam_T2m_seus_21.png?_=1424227225080 What a lame arctic outbreak!! 14 and 11 for mby, yawnnn! I was down to 9 during the Jan outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Went back to look at 94 and 96.. it was actually jan of 94 that had the cold wave that brought CLT with a hi/lo of 23/6 and HKY to down to 0 with a high of 20 on one of the days. In the early Feb 96 cold outbreak, the CLT high was actually only 27 with a low of 7. For HKY it was 19.9 and 1.9. Also, the Jan 85 was well known for the widespread subzero lows but the highs were not extraordinary... pretty much well in the 20s. BTW, Charlotte's all time min high is 14 degrees set in the Feb 1899 outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Fishel was talking about the season ending snow and cold of Feb 18/19, 1979. Temps stayed between 12-14 for most of the event in the Triangle, and the Triad was in the single digits! Nothing like sending off winter like a full fledged weenie storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Surprised no one mentioned next week. 00z was very close to a big dog for next week. 6z followed suite as well. might be the time frame to look for our last big chance at some snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Burger I think some folks are out of shape after tracking yesterday's madness. Can't rnu a marathon without training, and we've had precious little to train with this winter. BTW, nasty freezing fog this a.m. across the Sandhills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm all in on the Tues/Wed storm next week! The 6z GFS looks perfect, and is in the perfect location for 6/7 days out! Cold looks to not be an issue and a miller A look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm all in on the Tues/Wed storm next week! The 6z GFS looks perfect, and is in the perfect location for 6/7 days out! Cold looks to not be an issue and a miller A look Yep, I think this frame (hour 168) captures the potential. A slight NW jog and most everybody is once again in the game. There just seems to be chance after chance coming down the pipe now: And, here's another chance at hour 252: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Surprised no one mentioned next week. 00z was very close to a big dog for next week. 6z followed suite as well. might be the time frame to look for our last big chance at some snow this year. The gfs says mby gets 1.5" of snow next week It's too bad I cancelled winter and moved on to Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nice look on 6z no doubt as it weakened that great lakes low from 0z tremendously. Hopefully we can get that great lakes low to leave us alone for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The gfs says mby gets 1.5" of snow next week It's too bad I cancelled winter and moved on to Spring We can have hope can't we.... The 6z GEFS has 14/21 members that have some sort of event in the SE next week. The EPS does have a good signal still, but it's mean is less because more members are suppressed and miss wide right I would guess, not bad though. The CMC and it's ENS agree. Below is the CMC ENS but I could have posted the GEFS or the EPS as they all look roughly the same at day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 We can have hope can't we.... The 6z GEFS has 14/21 members that have some sort of event in the SE next week. The EPS does have a good signal still, but it's mean is less because more members are suppressed and miss wide right I would guess, not bad though. The CMC and it's ENS agree. Below is the CMC ENS but I could have posted the GEFS or the EPS as they all look roughly the same at day 7. As stated before (by many), next week may be the last real chance for many in the SE. By March 1st we should be in a warmer pattern across the eastern US and once it does cool back down(maybe mid March??) folks outside of the mountains will have a hard time getting wintery precip even in perfect setups. So I'm all in -- nothing to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 As stated before (by many), next week may be the last real chance for many in the SE. By March 1st we should be in a warmer pattern across the eastern US and once it does cool back down(maybe mid March??) folks outside of the mountains will have a hard time getting wintery precip even in perfect setups. So I'm all in -- nothing to lose. Yep and yep. This is definitely our last shot, all models agree on atleast a seasonal pattern, especially for the SE, starting first week of March. Even if we do go back to the +PNA pattern our average high is in the mid-60's by mid-March and 70 by end of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Surprised no one mentioned next week. 00z was very close to a big dog for next week. 6z followed suite as well. might be the time frame to look for our last big chance at some snow this year. I agree burger....The 0z euro had a 4" to 6" storm for the eastern half on NC next week but could easily be a bigger deal for many. After yesterdays storm this has been the timeframe I've been looking at. It could end up being too far south and east but there is enough support to peak interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I agree burger....The 0z euro had a 4" to 6" storm for the eastern half on NC next week but could easily be a bigger deal for many. After yesterdays storm this has been the timeframe I've been looking at. It could end up being too far south and east but there is enough support to peak interest. keep it south and east until 72 hrs out and then let the nw trend do work. i love seeing it suppressed this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.