BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't think yall do either, I really don't....but gooness, we have to slow the pattern down at some point right?? It will slow March/April you can bet on -NAO For a cold and rainy spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 00z gives CLT and GSP a consolation prize of 1-2 inches @180.Yep , I'm all in! At 174, there is a storm for only GSP to CLT , who cares about anybody else! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If you haven't done so already, I'd advise you to look at that stupid mega-bomb at D14-16 on the 00z GFS. I've never seen anything so ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yep , I'm all in! At 174, there is a storm for only GSP to CLT , who cares about anybody else! The 00z GGEM has that feature, too. It's a little more robust with it and gives a lot of us a little snow (1-2" for much of SC and NE GA, 2-4" for much of NC). It's also closer with the coastal a few days earlier than the GFS, though it's still rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I haven't I can remember numerous times in Feb where it would be 70+ degrees followed a day or two later by snow and or ice...check this vintage clip with Stuart Scott (RIP) when he was with WRAL....listen to what he says about the weather leading up to this event..notice it even stuck how can that be... Same situation down here. Charleston sets an all time record February high of 87 back in 1989, snow falls across the area says later. 0.9" officially at the airport. I picked up close to 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 When stormsfury posts, pay attention to the weather in GA/SC, some of NC. Learned that for sure! Anyway, I still think Feb 10-19 is the best shot for a widespread event in the deep South. Be patient guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 6z GFS , has that hot garbage mess of a storm for the 5/6th timeframe , basically shunted south, but try's to get a little precip back towards us and the high building in , looks a little stronger and the cold could possibly be there!? Just enough to keep us hanging on!? Edit: also has a Feb 12th '14 redux Edit2: gives me some snowy , Valentines day love! I love GFS ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I guess last night's euro was that bad? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I guess last night's euro was that bad? TW euro is on the jv team now.Fwiw the EPS show a stormy pattern for the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I guess last night's euro was that bad? TW I just glanced at it for 30 seconds or so but it looked like miss>cold>miss>cold>spring to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 I went to bed last night with the 00zGFS giving me a flizzard in between the raindrops on the 6th, and woke up this morning to the 06z giving me some freezing rain/drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 euro is on the jv team now. Fwiw the EPS show a stormy pattern for the southeast you were right yesterday the Euro has been all over the place this winter... All the Models for that matter... It's going to take a fluke timing to get a snow storm! Which hasn't happened yet. And I'm soon running out of time down this way........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I guess last night's euro was that bad? TW Yep, just posted in the banter about it. Awful for snow, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yep, just posted in the banter about it. Awful for snow, LOL.eps looks miserable, cold and rainy. Maybe we can get lucky with a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 eps looks miserable, cold and rainy. Maybe we can get lucky with a phase. We have a better shot at the mega millions, which I would prefer anyways :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The CMC has that storm after the storm at 180. We know how that will work out. The Euro at 168 isn't really that far away: That's a pretty stout HP. If it works in faster, we could have something. Unfortunately, the trend has clearly been the other way all winter, so why would it change this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 what do we have on the ukie here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm enjoying CAE's discussions as of late .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BEMOVING TOWARDS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVECONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN SLIGHTLY. EXPECTTHE DAY ON SUNDAY TO START OFF DRY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESSAHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE SYSTEM WILLNOT MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVINGACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVERVALLEY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAYAND MONDAY MORNING. WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP SUNDAYNIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP MUCH AND MAY ACTUALLY RISESLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH.THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION RAPIDLY DURING THEDAY ON MONDAY...TAKING THE PRECIP ALONG WITH IT. BRIEF RETURN TODRY WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAYNIGHT. THEN THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE POISED TO PUSH THROUGHTHE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS DO DIFFER WITH THE STRENGTH ANDTIMING OF THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING ANDTRACKING THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE GULF NORTHEASTWARD MUCH FASTERTHAN THE ECMWF DOES. THE GFS ALSO HAS MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLYUPPER FLOW PATTERN EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF DOES...WHICH WOULDACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER SPEED OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. WITH THEFASTER SPEED...THE GFS BRINGS THE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ONWEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRIER ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWFBRINGS THE PRECIP THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY. WENT GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THEPREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST 00Z HPC GUIDANCE FOR NOW. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY THOUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 And we are all the way back to the Huntington WV solution from a few days ago on the SB storm, just a hair weaker. Unbelievable how much these models are shifting around this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Euro has been second fiddle this year but honestly none have been accurate so can't trust any of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 And we are all the way back to the Huntington WV solution from a few days ago on the SB storm, just a hair weaker. Unbelievable how much these models are shifting around this year The interesting thing is that the Canadian model was forecasting this track a few days ago while the Euro was showing a snowstorm for most of NC. I don't trust the Euro any more than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS looks like it might be a descent hit @158 for at least NC/TN...if that trough can sharpen as keep going it will allow our energy to dig more and give us something really good. Not a bad look at 5h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well N. GA getting a good hit of snow @162 looks like 1-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 @165 ATL - GSP probably in the 2-4 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS looks like it might be a descent hit @158 for at least NC/TN...if that trough can sharpen as keep going it will allow our energy to dig more and give us something really good. Not a bad look at 5h. That's the look the GFS had a few days ago but lost the energy over the last few days . The GGEM has been showing this feature for days. The clown maps are not too hot looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That's the look the GFS had a few days ago but lost the energy over the last few days . The GGEM has been showing this feature for days. The clown maps are not too hot looking I wouldn't expect the clown maps to pick up on much but the QPF and overall look should give a good hit if it played out like the GFS has it. Kind of reminds me of the one descent hit of snow I got in my back yard on Feb 16th strong vort overhead just wringing out the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm enjoying CAE's discussions as of late .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN SLIGHTLY. EXPECT THE DAY ON SUNDAY TO START OFF DRY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP MUCH AND MAY ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...TAKING THE PRECIP ALONG WITH IT. BRIEF RETURN TO DRY WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE POISED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS DO DIFFER WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING AND TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE GULF NORTHEASTWARD MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF DOES. THE GFS ALSO HAS MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF DOES...WHICH WOULD ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER SPEED OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. WITH THE FASTER SPEED...THE GFS BRINGS THE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS DRIER ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE PRECIP THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY. WENT GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST 00Z HPC GUIDANCE FOR NOW. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY THOUGH. Easy! It'll either rain, or snow, or it won't I'm expecting the Goofy long range dangdoozer to hit you and me for a huge, big mega sleet/snow __________ (insert your preferred precip here)...that is if your commando raid succeeded in shutting down the portals for the rest of winter, lol. Heck, it's been cold enough for coats, and I even had rain yesterday while the sun was out...what's not to like Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'd say keep an eye on mid week. Moisture taking the right path with some good cold bearing down. It's all about timing when nothing else is in our favor. Colder highs would help But there's time for those 1032's not to moderate, but to speed up, and slow down respectively, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Man, if we could just get some cold air for that Thursday storm!!! That track is soooo money! I've heard to not worry about cold, when you have the perfect track, in the middle of winter, but so far we have seen how that has worked out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Easy! It'll either rain, or snow, or it won't I'm expecting the Goofy long range dangdoozer to hit you and me for a huge, big mega sleet/snow __________ (insert your preferred precip here)...that is if your commando raid succeeded in shutting down the portals for the rest of winter, lol. Heck, it's been cold enough for coats, and I even had rain yesterday while the sun was out...what's not to like Tony I took every weapon available and after upgrading my rain stick with cubed ice from the magical wonderland, it appears as if the portals will be (at least) temporarily held in check. So I'm calling this ritual a success. I'm still not sure if my neighbors will ever recover though.....what has been seen, can never be unseen The GFS holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.