burrel2 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 FWIW, a lot of the 12z GFS ensembles were well South of the operational for the Friday night/Sat. Storm. Several of them throw precip well into SC and Eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 FWIW, a lot of the 12z GFS ensembles were well South of the operational for the Friday night/Sat. Storm. Several of them throw precip well into SC and Eastern NC. I honestly think the 12z CMC is more realistic. Keeps it cold and throws moisture over but not a ton of it. I honestly don't see how we get a good fetch out of this one....but I also think the models are not handling the entrenched cold in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yes, your area does pretty well. To me, this is a weird setup for Saturday..... tough to get a good feel on. Thanks Matt I appreciate that, traveling And on the phone can't load up model pages. Having a hard time just trying to post on the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I honestly think the 12z CMC is more realistic. Keeps it cold and throws moisture over but not a ton of it. I honestly don't see how we get a good fetch out of this one....but I also think the models are not handling the entrenched cold in the area. I might be wrong but I think this could be one of those setups where you get a finger of precip racing out much farther east and faster than the models projected.. It's definitely a weird setup though. It's like combination of warm air advection out of the gulf along with a northern stream system that's getting sheared to pieces but scrapes off the top of the WAA moisture from the Southerly 850mb flow. The actual low pressure system that eventually comes east is like a different system in my eye's. It's been obvious that one is going to cut, but it really doesn't come through until a solid day after our potential event Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I might be wrong but I think this could be one of those setups where you get a finger of precip racing out much farther east and faster than the models projected.. It's definitely a weird setup though. It's like combination of warm air advection out of the gulf along with a northern stream system that's getting sheared to pieces but scrapes off the top of the WAA moisture from the Southerly 850mb flow. The actually low pressure system that eventually comes east is like a different system in my eye's. It's been obvious that one is going to cut, but it really doesn't come through until a solid day after our potential event Saturday morning. You get basically a west or northwest flow while the high is in a good position. It's not until it moves out that the flow at 500 turns slightly out of the southwest. A west flow at 500 is going to make it tough to get any appreciable precip east of the mountains. Once the high slides out, you still don't get a ton of moisture in immediately. Additionally, the winds turn out of the east or southeast, depending on your model of choice. That's why I don't like this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I honestly think the 12z CMC is more realistic. Keeps it cold and throws moisture over but not a ton of it. I honestly don't see how we get a good fetch out of this one....but I also think the models are not handling the entrenched cold in the area.Burger, will that arctic high still be to our north northeast or will it be east by that timeframe? Any idea how strong it'll still be when sliding to the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 snow is snow.Bingo! +1As recently as 10 days ago, they said Ga and Carolinas were going wintry precip-less!? Now what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yes, your area does pretty well. To me, this is a weird setup for Saturday..... tough to get a good feel on. Maybe Larry (GaWx) could chime in with some statistics, but I can't recall a track like that ever giving north Georgia snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z UKMET says no to anyone outside TN/KY for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Maybe Larry (GaWx) could chime in with some statistics, but I can't recall a track like that ever giving north Georgia snow. We had one in I believe 95 that gave us an inch or two. A clipper in 99 took a similar trajectory and gave me 1.5". Not much but it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Big north trend on the 18z GFS in terms of precip. Jumps to northern TN and Kentucky. For this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Big north trend on the 18z GFS in terms of precip. Jumps to northern TN and Kentucky. For this weekend Looks like the HP isn't sliding OTS as fast. @hr 96 light snow CLT and points west 540s way up in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z UKMET says no to anyone outside TN/KY for this weekend. Guys, don't even look at the models until this arctic air mass is in place. Once the cold air is entrenched, then the track of the moisture will be better handled. This is not your ordinary cold snap. We are talking record breaking cold and very low dews. I would worry more about lack of moisture than anything else at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 hr 111- Surface 0C line all the way into OH almost touching MI. 100-500mb 540 thickness line touches MI. This would be rain for TN, OH, AR, VA, and anyone south from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 After hr 108 cold rain for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Guys, don't even look at the models until this arctic air mass is in place. Once the cold air is entrenched, then the track of the moisture will be better handled. This is not your ordinary cold snap. We are talking record breaking cold and very low dews. I would worry more about lack of moisture than anything else at this stage.I get what you're saying and I would agree, but we are just doing model madness here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like rain for everybody according to Ukie and GFS. Well, this one is over. Like the pig says: that's alllll folks. Umm not quiet, these are the surface temps when we have a good bit of precip in here at the beginning of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 not again, what the hell is wrong with getting a great setup for the southeast, tired of these storms not going far enough south of us to give us the heavy snow and no sleet or freezing rain. Wasn't a bad look for WNC fritschy. Decent precip with a frozen column sounding for 9 hours Saturday morning in Asheville per the 18z GFS. This one isn't over yet but no guarantees. Just wait and see what falls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 not again, what the hell is wrong with getting a great setup for the southeast, tired of these storms not going far enough south of us to give us the heavy snow and no sleet or freezing rain. For the mountains we know this is going to be rain eventually but the front end of this for us might be a decent snow. That's what we want from this system a nice front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckinbronco Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like rain for everybody according to Ukie and GFS. Well, this one is over. Like the pig says: that's alllll folks. Looks like some areas of the SE get a thump of some frozen stuff on the front end according to the GFS...am I missing something? Edit: Looks like Met1985 beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like the 18z GFS wants to give upstate snow>Mix>Rain sat morning. And surface are going to be cold. Its not a matter of temps but precip which looks to be there right now. May not be much, but could be enough to lay down couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckinbronco Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Maybe but I am not liking the trends. If it continues this way, it will be just rain come the Oz model runs. It didn't seem like that dramatic of a change from the 12z, but I guess it could be the beginning of a trend, I'm no expert. But yes with the way the models have been, it could be all rain next run. That risk is always there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The high is in a pretty good location on the GFS. I would think that type of CAD wedge might cause the low to miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like the 12z JMA has a big dog in the Day 7/8 time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Can we stop with the death pronouncements until systems actually get here? I get tired of reading past all the posts of people saying, "There's nothing to see here." If there's nothing to see here, then don't come into this thread. Leave it alone. Stay away. Stop cluttering up the disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 No doubt EVERYONE will go over to rain with this one. Just depends on timing of precip. There could be some REAL issues in the beginning tho folks. This one makes me nervous for some areas as it moves into an ARCTIC airmass on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like the 12z JMA has a big dog in the Day 7/8 time frame Yep, JMA FTW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Can we stop with the death pronouncements until systems actually get here? I get tired of reading past all the posts of people saying, "There's nothing to see here." If there's nothing to see here, then don't come into this thread. Leave it alone. Stay away. Stop cluttering up the disco. Precip is coming at this time and temps rise to about 30F for western NC during heart of precip. 850's are borderline, could be snow to sleet to rain type deal, but heck it might not even rain, as precip shuts off late afternoon Saturday. It's a sneaky event, could be a fun one for you guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Can we stop with the death pronouncements until systems actually get here? I get tired of reading past all the posts of people saying, "There's nothing to see here." If there's nothing to see here, then don't come into this thread. Leave it alone. Stay away. Stop cluttering up the disco. Agreed. Take a look at the GFS and GGEM from 7 days ago (12z) I wouldnt discount anything at this point ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Probably won't see this in my forecast for another 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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