franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The euro like the gfs is gonna be a 3-5 inch snow to start for northern Alabama, north ga and wnc. After that it gets mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 EURO weak with the low. Still looks like a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The euro like the gfs is gonna be a 3-5 inch snow to start for northern Alabama, north ga and wnc. After that it gets mixed.I'll take it. We know it's going to rain but shoot at least it's going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I like the sound of that but it sounded doom and gloom from what everyone was saying. TW Precip takes forever to make it past the mountains. It doesn't even rain outside the mountains really until it's in the 40s/50s. I'm not really that enthused about this one at this point. Hopefully, things will change. It'll be a shame to be 0 one night, then get a warm rain a couple days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Not sure why this has not been discussed more, but the 6Z and 12Z GFS continues to put down what I would term a significant winter storm from Friday through all day Saturday. Frozen precip breaks out over MS and AL works its way into the dry cold air in GA and just pounds the GA folks. I will not post all the frames but you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Not sure why this has not been discussed more, but the 6Z and 12Z GFS continues to put down what I would term a significant winter storm from Friday through all day Saturday. Frozen precip breaks out over MS and AL works its way into the dry cold air in GA and just pounds the GA folks. I will not post all the frames but you get the idea. Its a mtn snowstorm for NC on the GFS and even then the mts transition to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 But, but it's a cutter?!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Not sure why this has not been discussed more, but the 6Z and 12Z GFS continues to put down what I would term a significant winter storm from Friday through all day Saturday. Frozen precip breaks out over MS and AL works its way into the dry cold air in GA and just pounds the GA folks. I will not post all the frames but you get the idea. My main reason for not getting too excited is the expectation that the moisture will miss us to the north. God knows that's the trend this year and indeed the euro keeps showing that. And unfortunately there is almost no room for error on the gfs or canadian in terms of the precip..if it trends just a tiny amount north or just a tiny bit drier, most will get nothing. .in fact the eastern sections of the state get virtually nothing anyway. If i was in northwest ga/mountains i'd be more enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 But, but it's a cutter?!?? yes, its residual cold that will be overcome by waa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks to be another surge of arctic air next week again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 My main reason for not getting too excited is the expectation that the moisture will miss us to the north. God knows that's the trend this year and indeed the euro keeps showing that. And unfortunately there is almost no room for error on the gfs or canadian in terms of the precip..if it trends just a tiny amount north or just a tiny bit drier, most will get nothing. .in fact the eastern sections of the state get virtually nothing anyway. If i was in northwest ga/mountains i'd be more enthused. Good point. I guess if it was 100 miles south right now we would be excited. So yeah... TN and KY may win again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks to be another surge of arctic air next week again.who knows, a cutter might be our best snow producer of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 My main reason for not getting too excited is the expectation that the moisture will miss us to the north. God knows that's the trend this year and indeed the euro keeps showing that. And unfortunately there is almost no room for error on the gfs or canadian in terms of the precip..if it trends just a tiny amount north or just a tiny bit drier, most will get nothing. .in fact the eastern sections of the state get virtually nothing anyway. If i was in northwest ga/mountains i'd be more enthused. About the only thing that has me enthused about Fri/Sat. is the fact that it's within 90 hrs. or so rather than the 180 hr. fantasy storm that gets everything going and leaves us ultimately disappointed. The GFS has been showing this for several days consistently, so that's something I guess, but then again, look what happened within 48 hrs. here on the last storm. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 who knows, a cutter might be our best snow producer of the year. There is a legit chance of the arctic front tomorrow being the best snow producer of the year. Oh, the humanity. Livin' on a thread... depending on a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 My main reason for not getting too excited is the expectation that the moisture will miss us to the north. God knows that's the trend this year and indeed the euro keeps showing that. And unfortunately there is almost no room for error on the gfs or canadian in terms of the precip..if it trends just a tiny amount north or just a tiny bit drier, most will get nothing. .in fact the eastern sections of the state get virtually nothing anyway. If i was in northwest ga/mountains i'd be more enthused. Sure hope to see some snow from this one after the big disappointment yesterday, at least we got some decent rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Euro doesn't look bad in the long range....looks like there is a lot of potential for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Dew points look to be in the single digits before this storm. Also a strong HP is being shown on the GFS dropping down from Canada into the plains. From there is looks to retrograde southwest. Curious as to what the implications would be if the timing is off and the HP moves out quicker and further east. Would this help suppress this weekends system and keep it from cutting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 My main reason for not getting too excited is the expectation that the moisture will miss us to the north. God knows that's the trend this year and indeed the euro keeps showing that. And unfortunately there is almost no room for error on the gfs or canadian in terms of the precip..if it trends just a tiny amount north or just a tiny bit drier, most will get nothing. .in fact the eastern sections of the state get virtually nothing anyway. If i was in northwest ga/mountains i'd be more enthused. Yep, that is what I'm afraid of. It did tick it slightly south on the 12Z though, but still good bit from where we need it and no near as far south as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 For those that will be sick of the cold after next week, we have some hope. It looks like the pattern finally breaks down, hopefully for good. Day 11+ , solid -PNA pattern, here come 60-70F temps... For those that are loving the cold weather that we are finally getting to experience, we have some hope. It has been difficult to change the pattern all season long. Now that we've switched to a more active southern stream and eastern trough, it may very well stick around, hopefully for good. Here comes the arctic express the next several days, followed by more shots next week according to the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 For those that are loving the cold weather that we are finally getting to experience, we have some hope. It has been difficult to change the pattern all season long. Now that we've switched to a more active southern stream and eastern trough, it may very well stick around, hopefully for good. Here comes the arctic express the next several days, followed by more shots next week according to the GEFS.+1Cold almost never moderates as quickly as shown and gets pushed back on alot of occasions in the past! Kind of like when we kept seeing cold coming in December, over and over again, only to never happen! Hopefully this can happen with our cold pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Maybe if we have can have the models show a LP system fire up near Cuba for about 7 days out we can finally get some snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 For those that are loving the cold weather that we are finally getting to experience, we have some hope. It has been difficult to change the pattern all season long. Now that we've switched to a more active southern stream and eastern trough, it may very well stick around, hopefully for good. Here comes the arctic express the next several days, followed by more shots next week according to the GEFS. Yes, precip has not been a problem here since December. We just haven't had the cold. Now we have the cold around and just need the wet pattern to keep repeating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I bet the waa will have a tough time Saturday just like this past storm. I mean it very well may be ice but I doubt plain rain. Maybe at very end could be plain rain? Wasn't this last storm modeled to overcome this cold which it didn't, Models will way under estimate the cold dry air. just like it will Saturday!! JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I bet the waa will have a tough time Saturday just like this past storm. I mean it very well may be ice but I doubt plain rain. Maybe at very end could be plain rain? Wasn't this last storm modeled to overcome this cold which it didn't, Models will way under estimate the cold dry air. just like it will Saturday!! JMO This wedge is way stronger too than any wedge was yesterday, high in a way better spot and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Isn't about time we get NAM'd today? Aren't we close enoght to be in it's long range for Friday/Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This wedge is way stronger too than any wedge was yesterday, high in a way better spot and stronger That should have huge implications for areas that just missed out yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 This wedge is way stronger too than any wedge was yesterday, high in a way better spot and strongerAfter yesterday, I've learned to love single digit and below zero dp's ! You think they will be lower for Sat, because the air mass will be colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yes, precip has not been a problem here since December. We just haven't had the cold. Now we have the cold around and just need the wet pattern to keep repeating. It's been plenty cold. Just not at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Isn't about time we get NAM'd today? Aren't we close enoght to be in it's long range for Friday/Sat It's moving even as we speak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It's time for a thread on the Friday-Saturday storm when the NWS starts talking dirty like this. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA240 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LATE WEEK WINTERPRECIP POTENTIAL. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITHTIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET EARLY FRIDAY AND THE PROLONGEDPERIOD OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THISCONTINUES TO BE A TRICKY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FORNOW...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW AT THE ONSET ACROSS NORTHGEORGIA...TRANSITIONING TO A FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAYAFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO ALLRAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO HIGHLIGHT THIS TRANSITIONOF P-TYPES AS FAR SOUTH AS ATLANTA. THIS TRANSITION IS HIGHLYDEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF THE WEDGE SATURDAY AND HOW QUICKLY ITERODES...ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. FORNOW...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTSIN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 0.5-1 INCHACROSS THE ATL METRO AREA...AND 1-3 INCHES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIAAND 2-4 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT THIS FORECAST TO CONTINUETO EVOLVE...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES ANDSNOWFALL/ICE AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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