FallsLake Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Burger had the hot hand. Start a thread for tomorrow and one for this weekend. Brick, problem with this system tomorrow is it will be more connective; meaning some could get some accumulation and most others will not (or very little). Almost like us having a 20% chance of thunderstorms in the summer. It could get interesting, but I would not expect much. A thread needs to encompass a larger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Brick, problem with this system tomorrow is it will be more connective; meaning some could get some accumulation and most others will not (or very little). Almost like us having a 20% chance of thunderstorms in the summer. It could get interesting, but I would not expect much. A thread needs to encompass a larger area. Yea that's the big issue with this. I think it's good to track though and it could end up impacting an area from GA to NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GA centric : 12Z GFS is a front end thump of snow to freezing rain. This would be a big deal Friday night.... I think this is a really, really low probability. These over-running events with retreating arctic air never work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 CMC took a step to the GFS today for this weekend. Not nearly as juiced. Light snow in WNC @93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Not impressed around the Midlands of SC for pretty much anything much longer. UKMET, Euro, GFS all have nothing for the most part. Crazy how the Euro & the EPS grabbed on to something for next week and dropped it instantly. I guess we in KCAE & KATL have to realize it's a NC year to finish Winter out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Not impressed around the Midlands of SC for pretty much anything much longer. UKMET, Euro, GFS all have nothing for the most part. Crazy how the Euro & the EPS grabbed on to something for next week and dropped it instantly. I guess we in KCAE & KATL have to realize it's a NC year to finish Winter out. We're not in great shape either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We're not in great shape either. Well, you guys are prime to see a few more Winter events of some kind of frozen precip probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GSP mentioned Feb 2013 as a possible analog..... Now that was my favorite snow of all time! Completely unexpected and BOOM! Six inches of snow in the middle of the afternoon! I'd take that again and call it even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Not impressed around the Midlands of SC for pretty much anything much longer. UKMET, Euro, GFS all have nothing for the most part. Crazy how the Euro & the EPS grabbed on to something for next week and dropped it instantly. I guess we in KCAE & KATL have to realize it's a NC year to finish Winter out. the former Cy young winner just gave up two home runs to Cody Ross in the nlcs.It's been a terrible winter for the nc mtns, I only have 3 inches of snow for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Not impressed around the Midlands of SC for pretty much anything much longer. UKMET, Euro, GFS all have nothing for the most part. Crazy how the Euro & the EPS grabbed on to something for next week and dropped it instantly. I guess we in KCAE & KATL have to realize it's a NC year to finish Winter out. The models all had a multiple wave idea which to an extent they have lost at 12Z, those multi wave ideas rarely work out they usually end up being one. The 12Z UKMET and GFS though continue to see the wedge better Fri into Sat, I am becoming more confident ATL may see something wintry now with the UKMET seemingly going a bit colder. They likely would flip to rain though as the wedge broke. The GGEM also sees the wedge now at 96-108 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 RGEM is aggressive with wanting to give brick 2-3" of snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The models all had a multiple wave idea which to an extent they have lost at 12Z, those multi wave ideas rarely work out they usually end up being one. The 12Z UKMET and GFS though continue to see the wedge better Fri into Sat, I am becoming more confident ATL may see something wintry now with the UKMET seemingly going a bit colder. They likely would flip to rain though as the wedge broke. The GGEM also sees the wedge now at 96-108 or so. Does the 12z Ukmet throw precip in Atlanta Saturday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Man the GFS is active next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The models all had a multiple wave idea which to an extent they have lost at 12Z, those multi wave ideas rarely work out they usually end up being one. The 12Z UKMET and GFS though continue to see the wedge better Fri into Sat, I am becoming more confident ATL may see something wintry now with the UKMET seemingly going a bit colder. They likely would flip to rain though as the wedge broke. The GGEM also sees the wedge now at 96-108 or so. CMC is aggressive.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 CMC looks more realistic to me today. I don't buy the GFS solution of warming up as fast as it does. I also though don't think we have a lot of moisture to work with this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 with the amount of cold and snowpack, i can not see this cutting. ens lastnight had it going into the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The Fri / Sat storm looks funky on the 12z GFS ? It looks like a clipper, breaks out some good precip over TN an such, seemingly hits a brick wall, sits there for a day or so, gets more precip coming from TX, then finally moves east to NC and shows ice in the CAD!? I don't see something that robust looking in TN, just stopping or dying out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 No blocking and another wave digging into the sw behind it. This pumps heights in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 ens cuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GEFS is showing similar cold next week as we are experiencing this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 For those that will be sick of the cold after next week, we have some hope. It looks like the pattern finally breaks down, hopefully for good. Day 11+ , solid -PNA pattern, here come 60-70F temps... Curious if JB says winter is over March 1st for the east, south of 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 ens cuts I think yesterday's storm was shown as a cutter, at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I think yesterday's storm was shown as a cutter, at some point? yea, but every model is on board with this one along with their ensembles. we might get some winter precip in the beginning, but in the end its gonna be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Euro isnt gonna do it either. Low in ND gonna scoop the Colorado low up. Oh well, was fun to track while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 yea, but every model is on board with this one along with their ensembles. we might get some winter precip in the beginning, but in the end its gonna be rain. It's always been modeled to cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Anything you get off the "front end" this weekend is just going to be ruined by the rain right after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Anything you get off the "front end" this weekend is just going to be ruined by the rain right after. yup, oh well. this past system was cool...i guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Anything you get off the "front end" this weekend is just going to be ruined by the rain right after. I would take five minutes of getting to play in the snow over nothing. Besides, if it is going to melt I would rather it be done quickly then watch is slowly go all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 euro is showing temps at or below zero all the way into northern north carolina friday morning. the euro, like the gfs often will, will show those crazy temps when it assumes there is a snow pack on the ground and it shows unrealistic cooling but this is legit zero readings i believe. edit..especially since i just noticed it matches the gfs. I'm jealous.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 NWS at GSP has Fri/Sat at 50% for snow/sleet on their forecast page. More interesting is that Robert just mentioned it on the WxSouth Facebook page and has an update coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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