griteater Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I understand, and you probably right. But verbatim it looks good right now.... lot of cold left over just like today. I hope Maybe snow changing to rain? I'm just looking at models, you Guys certainly know a lot more than I do..... I guess all of you forgot how far north this system today started out 5-7 days ago smh I hear ya Frosty and Nelson, I certainly don't have a crystal ball on knowing how the models will evolve...but here's the UKMet and a cutter west of the Apps like this would be how I would lean right now with this look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I hear ya Frosty and Nelson, I certainly don't have a crystal ball on knowing how the models will evolve...but here's the UKMet and a cutter west of the Apps like this would be how I would lean right now with this look Looks just like the GFS front end wintry and cuts day 5 . Hand in hand with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I hear ya Frosty and Nelson, I certainly don't have a crystal ball on knowing how the models will evolve...but here's the UKMet and a cutter west of the Apps like this would be how I would lean right now with this look Yes that don't look good! Oh well maybe it'll change IDK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yep just like the ukmet is the GFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 So what's wrong with a front end wintry period before the storm cuts? It's still a win except for pack lol GFS and GGEM and ukmet all look alike at this point Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 All-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 this was the ukmet 120 hours before this current storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I do not believe the 12z UKMET had the front end thump for the weekend idea btw. One thing is vs the GFS image posted.. the high dropping in behind is much weaker on the UKMET at 1035 vs 1051 on the GFS... so that could be problems down the road for the potential Miller A spoken of earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Man the 00z CMC looks good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Frosty, that is quite the Winter storm down into KCAE with all the major frozen ptypes. I don't trust though.. because it has ZR here tonight and I don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Frosty, that is quite the Winter storm down into KCAE with all the major frozen ptypes. Yes I'm sure it will change, But boy that's looks nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Frosty, that is quite the Winter storm down into KCAE with all the major frozen ptypes. I don't trust though.. because it has ZR here tonight and I don't see that happening. Yeah ck out hour 106 At least it's pretty to look at! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yes I'm sure it will change, But boy that's looks nice! The GGEM was trying to put all ZR here (ptype maps which made no sense) while that maps like a front end snow event before changing over. Pretty sure it's the same model of sorts? Not sure... anyway.. That would be Saturday.. would like to see the Euro come in better with it around here to take it seriously. I had already written it off earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The GGEM was trying to put all ZR here (ptype maps which made no sense) while that maps like a front end snow event before changing over. Pretty sure it's the same model of sorts? Not sure... anyway.. That would be Saturday.. would like to see the Euro come in better with it around here to take it seriously. I had already written it off earlier today. Yes definitely would like to see the Euro on board... I guess it don't cost nothing to dream. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yes definitely would like to see the Euro old board... I guess it don't cost nothing to dream. lol The Doc was not onboard at 12z. However, the Doc and the EPS were all-in around D8/9. I've never seen a mean snowfall of 5" at a 7+ day lead. Just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The Doc was not onboard at 12z. However, the Doc and the EPS were all-in around D8/9. I've never seen a mean snowfall of 5" at a 7+ day lead. Just ridiculous. well the 00z GFS had a good front end dump also, before going over to rain? THe only reason it's perk my interest is all the record cold into Friday could be still enough around Saturday for some mischief? Just wishing I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Man the 00z CMC looks good... Well helllooooooo beautiful.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We'll soon see if the doc is interested or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 1040 HP sitting right nice and pretty over Long Island and a ton of moisture....no chance that verifies right......everyone reverse jinx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The energy back in Texas sure looks nice blowing up on the ptype radar, and the vapor loop. If it stayed south, I might could get me some that snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Euro looked like it phased with the lakes low? only have 25hr plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I don't think this run is going to get it done but the Euro definitely came south some. I'm only out to 114h though. I should clarify, the precip shield when there is cold air in place came south and east some from the 12z run. It still gets pulled up by the GL low and most everyone on the east coast warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I wouldn't doubt somebody gets a surprise Wednesday night... I will hold out hope for at least some mix this weekend until Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Man the 00z CMC looks good... GFS is on board looking at 850 temps... a relatively fresh snow pack won't hurt either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GFS is on board looking at 850 temps... a relatively fresh snow pack won't hurt either its all rain for CLT after though. ENS looks way south thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 its all rain for CLT after though. ENS looks way south thought. Good to hear about the ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I think this weekend bears watching. We are going to have possible record cold right before that storm. That air is going to be hanging around longer and colder than models are showing. Just look at how stubborn the cold air was with this storm. Patterns tend to repeat and so do storm setups. This looks an awfully lot like this storm we just went through just with colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Quite active 7-10days showing up. However, it's a shame we don't have any blocking during this period to anchor some Highs in place for us. So we are going to see some serious waffling on models, and they won't be able to hone in on any of these opportunities past 3days IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 gsp says confidence is growing on a possible big storm this weekend, Friday nite and Saturday. hope so and the atmosphere allows for more snow instead of sleet and freezing rain. lets hope it stays south a little more than this one did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The Saturday thing looks to be a snow to ice to rain deal for western-NC, unless it comes in quicker and /or the HP can hold on longer. To be honest I would rather this Saturday deal really develop cut to Ohio and become a strong 50/50 for next week, if you want snow that's what you should be hoping for. Next week has promise if the ridge/trough placement hold, big if though,...be a shame to go all winter without one true east coastal that wipes the east coast with snow. Be a shame to go all winter without any measurable snow, but that's what we are facing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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