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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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I understand, and you probably right.  But verbatim  it looks good right now.... lot of cold left over just like today. I hope

 

Maybe snow changing to rain?  I'm just looking at models, you Guys certainly know a lot more than I do.....

I guess all of you forgot how far north this system today started out 5-7 days ago smh

 

I hear ya Frosty and Nelson, I certainly don't have a crystal ball on knowing how the models will evolve...but here's the UKMet and a cutter west of the Apps like this would be how I would lean right now with this look

 

UKMet120.gif
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I hear ya Frosty and Nelson, I certainly don't have a crystal ball on knowing how the models will evolve...but here's the UKMet and a cutter west of the Apps like this would be how I would lean right now with this look

 

 
 
 
 
 
Yes that don't look good!  Oh well maybe it'll change IDK?

 

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I do not believe the 12z UKMET had the front end thump for the weekend idea btw. One thing is vs the GFS image posted.. the high dropping in behind is much weaker on the UKMET at 1035 vs 1051 on the GFS... so that could be problems down the road for the potential Miller A spoken of earlier

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Yes I'm sure it will change, But boy that's looks nice!

 

The GGEM was trying to put all ZR here (ptype maps which made no sense) while that maps like a front end snow event before changing over.  Pretty sure it's the same model of sorts?  Not sure...  anyway.. That would be Saturday.. would like to see the  Euro come in better with it around here to take it seriously.

 

I had already written it off earlier today.

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The GGEM was trying to put all ZR here (ptype maps which made no sense) while that maps like a front end snow event before changing over.  Pretty sure it's the same model of sorts?  Not sure...  anyway.. That would be Saturday.. would like to see the  Euro come in better with it around here to take it seriously.

 

I had already written it off earlier today.

Yes definitely would like to see the Euro on board... I guess it don't cost nothing to dream. lol

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The Doc was not onboard at 12z.

 

However, the Doc and the EPS were all-in around D8/9.  I've never seen a mean snowfall of 5" at a 7+ day lead.  Just ridiculous.

well the 00z GFS had a good front end dump also, before going over to rain?  THe only reason it's perk my interest is all the record cold into Friday could be still enough around Saturday for some mischief? Just wishing I guess.

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I don't think this run is going to get it done but the Euro definitely came south some. I'm only out to 114h though.

 

I should clarify, the precip shield when there is cold air in place came south and east some from the 12z run. It still gets pulled up by the GL low and most everyone on the east coast warms up.

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I think this weekend bears watching. We are going to have possible record cold right before that storm. That air is going to be hanging around longer and colder than models are showing. Just look at how stubborn the cold air was with this storm. Patterns tend to repeat and so do storm setups. This looks an awfully lot like this storm we just went through just with colder air.

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Quite active 7-10days showing up. However, it's a shame we don't have any blocking during this period to anchor some Highs in place for us.

 

So we are going to see some serious waffling on models, and they won't be able to hone in on any of these opportunities past 3days IMO.

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The Saturday thing looks to be a snow to ice to rain deal for western-NC, unless it comes in quicker and /or the HP can hold on longer.  To be honest I would rather this Saturday deal really develop cut to Ohio and become a strong 50/50 for next week, if you want snow that's what you should be hoping for.  

 

Next week has promise if the ridge/trough placement hold, big if though,...be a shame to go all winter without one true east coastal that wipes the east coast with snow.  Be a shame to go all winter without any measurable snow, but that's what we are facing.

post-2311-0-64884900-1424179013_thumb.pn

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